sefuchs
Contributor
I've never spent more than $650 to fly to Roatan or Bonaire and awards for both destinations have been good for the past several years - 25k miles or less for RT on American. Part of the appeal of Mexico for me has been airfare in the $300-range so if that's eliminated (along with nonstop flights) then it's harder for Cozumel to compete with other Caribbean destinations.
Since Covid days, my focus are trips (fares) to Cozumel and Bonaire, with some attention to the Cayman Islands, so I'm not able to comment on Roatan. Having traveled (from PDX) to the Caribbean multiple times a year for about 15 years, I haven't encountered fares like these in a long time. If you come across such fares, I'd suggest you book them right away! I haven't found any of my other Caribbean trips to be as cost-effective as Cozumel.