Heads up

[ggunn]

It's looking more likely to affect Jam

Looking a lot more likely to affect Jamaica and Cuba than Cozumel now.

Yeah, it just sat there for over a week in that area where numerous tropical events have gotten started this year, but now it appears to be moving. Cozumel is well off the predicted path but my peeps in coastal Texas and Louisiana are watching it closely.

 

[DandyDon]

It's looking more likely to affect Jam

Looking a lot more likely to affect Jamaica and Cuba than Cozumel now.

Yeah, they often to swerve one way or another. He is now known as Rafael and he is currently looking at Louisiana...

 

[ggunn]

Yeah, they often to swerve one way or another. He is now known as Rafael and he is currently looking at Louisiana...

View attachment 868658

From the eyewall The Eyewall website:

• Once in the Gulf, there is some uncertainty on Rafael’s track, but models are in good agreement that a surge of dry air will wrap into the storm at some point, likely leading to its demise before it can find land again.

 

[Shawn C]

Wow did Rafael ever make a hard left turn just north of Cuba.

 

[ggunn]

Wow did Rafael ever make a hard left turn just north of Cuba.

And headed south by the first part of next week. Luckily for the Gulf Coast states the strongest cold front of the season blew through here a couple of days ago.

 

[Shawn C]

And headed south by the first part of next week. Luckily for the Gulf Coast states the strongest cold front of the season blew through here a couple of days ago.

Probably, but there's an unusual amount of disagreement in the models. If it does turn north (less likely than south), it's likely going to encounter unfavorable conditions and should weaken rapidly.

 

[mcpowell]

Y'all see that blue dot, right there on top of Cozumel? Well that's me!!

That's what I call dodging a bullet.

 

[gopbroek]

Y'all see that blue dot, right there on top of Cozumel? Well that's me!!

That's what I call dodging a bullet.

View attachment 869171

Heard this morning that the storm found out a wall was going up and headed back south

 

[Shawn C]

Not what happened. Without an election to worry about, the democrats turned the hurricane repellent machine back on

 

[ggunn]

Here we go again

Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook