Florida storms 2023

[PBcatfish]

Rina is not looking like much of a powerhouse at this time, but the forecast for Phillipe has changed significantly. It is now forecast to become a hurricane on Monday. The current forecast now has it closer to the original track forecast, heading north, then northeast, staying east of Bermuda.

The sudden large changes in the forecast would seem to indicate that checking with NHC frequently would be a good idea.

Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

 

[PBcatfish]

Phillipe is the only storm left on the 7 day Atlantic forecast. It's forecast path has changed more than any other storm I have followed. At this time, the forecast is for it to remain a tropical storm & pass much closer to Bermuda than previously expected.

 

[PBcatfish]

Sea surface temperatures are certainly up right now -
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Visualization01/cData/Blended/OHC/NATL/SST-PNG/SST-PNG_NATL_20240630.png that's more than enough to fuel big storms.

Currently, Hurricane Beryl is forecast to hammer the Grenadines as Cat 4 before weakening as it approaches Mexico. Florida is not currently in the forecast storm path, but things can always change.

HURRICANE BERYL

Atlantic 2-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

 

[PBcatfish]

NHC isn't forecasting any hurricanes at the moment, but the water temperatures are UP. There is a lot of energy out there right now, just waiting for a storm to come along & feed off of it. When the water temperatures are above 82F or 28C, strong storm development becomes likely.

https://media.raven.news/images/wx/bn9/60min/fl_sea_sfc_temps.jpg

Quite frankly, we are sitting on a figurative powder keg

 

[Johnoly]

Quite frankly, we are sitting on a figurative powder keg

I agree 100%. Conditions are way too ripe for this time of year. I'm still doing 'tweeks' to my home electrical upgrades. Putting a soft start on my well pump so the generator handles it better. And I'm about 80% done on really hacking the hell out of my tree branches (Bald is beautiful when it's a 110mph outside)