Florida storms 2023

[PBcatfish]

I'm a little surprised that this corner of the forum doesn't get more traffic, as storms significantly affect diving opportunities. So far this season in Florida we've had one fairly significant impact on the gulf side (Idalia) & less significant damage elsewhere. The last couple of big ones that started in the traditional area off the coast of Africa, have pointed our way, then turned north before getting too close.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/tws_atl_latest.gif

I now see two things of interest. One is a little disturbance with a 30% chance of formation that popped up out of nowhere right off our coast, extending all the way up to the Carolinas. The other is forecast as 70% likely and is a little south of the storm tracks from the ones that turned North early and stayed out to sea. That one is going to be coming across some water that is warm enough to add significant energy. It needs to be watched.

Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

The other thing that has my attention is the water temperatures, especially in the gulf & only slightly to a lesser extent south of Cuba. Temperatures have been rising in the last few days & are now as much as 5 degrees above the danger temperature of 28C/82F. That's not good. On the bright side, the hurricanes that have swept north of us have removed a lot of the energy from the waters they passed over. Hurricane fuel is now more sparse once you get north of Georgia.

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/ocean/ohc/images/sst_naQG3_ddc.gif

 

[Wookie]

Maybe a hot middle of the Atlantic is a good thing for the US? Hurricanes are forming early, becoming majors, and steering north before they can impact the US. I was surprised to open the weather guesser's page and see that we have an N storm.

 

[PBcatfish]

Nigel popped up a few days ago. It didn't make the news because it's looking to be just another fish storm, staying over 1,000 miles east of Florida & even staying east of Bermuda.

I'm not the weather expert, but my understanding is that the high water temperatures fuel the growth of the storms & the hi/low pressure frontal boundaries steer them.

It seems to me, that we have been fortunate that the pressure boundaries have been keeping the last few storms out to sea where they dissipated energy without doing significant damage.

...But the season is far from over and the paths of the upcoming storms are still a roll of the dice.

Having this thread may help to keep people posted about events that don't make the news early enough.

 

[Capt Jim Wyatt]

Nova Scotia just got whacked with the remnants of Lee.

Wes Skiles Peacock Springs State Park is still closed due to downed trees caused by Idalia. Other springs here in North Fla are still impacted to lesser degrees from Idalia.

 

[PBcatfish]

Ophelia is now a storm. It looks like North Carolina is going to feel it the most, with some surrounding states getting taste. It's not currently forecast to become a hurricane.

Disturbance 1, off the coast of Africa, looks like it could turn into something more significant, but it seems that we have a week or so to figure that out.

 

[PBcatfish]

Former disturbance 1 is now TS Philippe. It is currently forecast to remain a TS & turn north around 55 degrees West Longitude, which is roughly 600 miles east of Bermuda and far from the US mainland. Another disturbance, with 20% chance of formation in 7 days, is behind it.

Ophelia has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression and is still centered in the eastern Carolinas. The remnants seem likely to track towards NJ

Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico & south of Cuba have increased and are now in the range of 86-88F, which is enough to support strong storm development. Water temperatures further east and north of Georgia, are lower & not so favorable for producing hurricanes.

 

[PBcatfish]

Philippe has shifted west & is no longer forecast to turn north. It is also forecast to decline to a depression around the end of this week, before approaching Hispaniola/Bahamas. The disturbance behind it is on a similar track & is still a wild card with a 90% chance of storm formation in the forecast.

 

[PBcatfish]

Philippe has lost it's northern component of motion & is now headed straight for Puerto Rico & perhaps even slightly south of Hispaniola. It is forecast to weaken to a depression before arriving at the shores of PR. They system behind it is moving more slowly now & is still a wildcard with 90% chance of formation in 7 days.

 

[PBcatfish]

Philippe slowed down & is now forecast to fizzle out before it even reaches Puerto Rico

 

[PBcatfish]

Tropical Storm Rina is now behind Phillipe, and is forecast to follow a path similar to the originally forecast path of Phillipe, but closer to Bermuda. She is not forecast to exceed tropical storm status at this time.