Wrinkles December '04 Dive and BBQ planning thread - Leo Carrillo

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I was checking out Wetsand this morning, and noticed they are predicting surf that is off the charts next Friday. They're talking sets up to 15 ft !!!!

"Another system spawning from activity off of the Kamchatka Peninsula is projected to take an identical course as our recent swells, but models say this one will be much larger, and much stronger."

We'll have to keep an eye on it as next weekend gets closer.
 
mccabejc:
I was checking out Wetsand this morning, and noticed they are predicting surf that is off the charts next Friday. They're talking sets up to 15 ft !!!!

"Another system spawning from activity off of the Kamchatka Peninsula is projected to take an identical course as our recent swells, but models say this one will be much larger, and much stronger."

We'll have to keep an eye on it as next weekend gets closer.
We've seen them be "very" wrong before, but it's something to keep an eye on. If the sets are rolling in at 15 feet it'll just be a fun weekend of camping, commenting on the "big ones" and maybe a little surfing for those that surf. You can always working on timing you entries and exits! :11:

Christian
 
We've already decided to do the camping thing no matter what the surf conditions. Christian, do we need to make campground reservations?
 
Wish I could join the gang for the dive but that weekend is my Army Reserve duty time. Have fun.
 
Melvin, if you want to get out of it, we can write you a note... :eyebrow:
 
mccabejc:
We've already decided to do the camping thing no matter what the surf conditions. Christian, do we need to make campground reservations?
No, I think that Ana and I will each have a spot reserved. I think she said she'd have hers for Saturday and Sunday and I'm going to have one for Saturday for sure and maybe Friday night as well. This way if anyone wanted to stay Sunday night Ana would have a site and if anyone wanted to stay Friday night I might have one.

I think that 2 sites for Saturday night will be fine. I'm sure we could get one more at the last minute if we need it.

Christian
 
Myrna and I checked out Leo Carillo this afternoon, hoping to get a look at (and some photos of) the campsites, and also have a picnic lunch. When we got to the entrance, the girl at the booth said it costs $10 for a day pass. Yikes. No thanks. So no photos of the campgrounds. Anyway, I said "The campsites will probably be pretty empty this weekend, right?"
"Oh, we've seen them full recently on Fridays and Saturdays".
"With this cold weather?"
"Yeah".
Surprising. Anyway, we drove across the street to the beach, and took some photos. Not sure if the diving is to the west of the lifeguard station, in the little cove, or to the east where the big crescent shaped beach is. Anyone?

By the way, here's the latest from Wetsand on the swells this coming weekend. They're now predicting 7-12 ft. swells on Saturday. Interesting writeup:

"Friday the 17th is when our next NW swell is due, and this is not just another NW swell. This is a very significant swell, one that may be best watched from the shore as size and intensity could be quite impressive. This swell is from a system we’ve been tracking since last week off of the Kamchatka Peninsula that is holding together quite well. Since last week, the jet stream has dropped, and has positioned itself quite similar to other El Niño years, like 1997, when the California coast was rocked by direct impact swells. As such, the angle on this incoming system is nearly direct at 270-280 degrees, resulting in less loss from angular spreading decay. Given the system’s fetch is producing long-period swells in the 18-22 second range, shoaling as well as refraction will be high. As such, calculations as of this morning as calling for face heights at most west facing breaks in the 10 foot range with 15 foot set waves likely. Consistency is expected to be high, so danger from rip currents and alongshore currents is likely. Caution is advised. South facing breaks however will only be feeling the NW diffraction and will be smaller yet more manageable.

Saturday the 18th this swell is expected to decline, but still produce set waves ranging from 7-10 feet on the face. Although the lagging periods from this swell will be hitting on Saturday, strength is still significant as these periods should range from 14-16 seconds."
 

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