the tropics are waking up

[Divin'Papaw]

I see that Manatee county has ordered evacuations and Hillsborough County has for some zones. Where to two million folks go when the whole state is a target? There is another million in Pinellas County. Glad to see that Cozumel is still not in the cone.

They aren't evacuating those entire counties (as you mentioned just some zones). Just Zone A the last I saw.

There will be inland shelters opened for those that want to go there. Many people with go stay with family or friends that live a bit inland.

Florida orders evacuations primarily due to storm surge. They don't order evacuations for wind or rain.

 

[Divin'Papaw]

I see that Manatee county has ordered evacuations and Hillsborough County has for some zones. Where to two million folks go when the whole state is a target? There is another million in Pinellas County. Glad to see that Cozumel is still not in the cone.

48 shelters in Hillsborough county alone.

Locals don't have to evacuate far. They just want to get folks away from the coast, rivers, and streams. Actually, when too many people try and evacuate too far, it causes issues. Their instructions are clear. Please do not evacuate unless it becomes mandatory or voluntary. They don't want the roads clogged by people evacuating who do not need to. That happened with Irma.

 

[DandyDon]

48 shelters in Hillsborough county alone.

Locals don't have to evacuate far. They just want to get folks away from the coast, rivers, and streams. Actually, when too many people try and evacuate too far, it causes issues. Their instructions are clear. Please do not evacuate unless it becomes mandatory or voluntary. They don't want the roads clogged by people evacuating who do not need to. That happened with Irma.

Yeah, I remember half of Houston TX trying to flee the coast for a storm a few years ago. It did not go well.

 

[ggunn]

They aren't evacuating those entire counties (as you mentioned just some zones). Just Zone A the last I saw.

There will be inland shelters opened for those that want to go there. Many people with go stay with family or friends that live a bit inland.

Florida orders evacuations primarily due to storm surge. They don't order evacuations for wind or rain.

One unfortunate thing that is being predicted is that the storm will move very slowly once it hits land and take nearly two full days to cross the Florida peninsula.

 

[Johnoly]

two full days to cross the Florida.

We're divers....we don't trust NOAA.(ie-GFS)
But we do trust the EURO model
The EURO says 3 days and a TON of rain + flooding

The storm is over 500 miles in diameter and Florida is only 150 miles wide
Every Floridian is going to get hit with water, just gotta tread for a while!

The EURO model costs money to see, but this is the only FREE link I know of & you can scroll the times & watch the pressure readings = wind speed.

ECMWF Model

ECMWF model forecast of MSLP Norm. Anomaly for North Atlantic

www.tropicaltidbits.com

 

[ggunn]

We're divers....we don't trust NOAA.(ie-GFS)
But we do trust the EURO model
The EURO says 3 days and a TON of rain + flooding

The storm is over 500 miles in diameter and Florida is only 150 miles wide
Every Floridian is going to get hit with water, just gotta tread for a while!

The EURO model costs money to see, but this is the only FREE link I know of & you can scroll the times & watch the pressure readings = wind speed.

ECMWF Model

ECMWF model forecast of MSLP Norm. Anomaly for North Atlantic

www.tropicaltidbits.com

To be fair, the NHC numbers are only about the center of the storm. Obviously the rain in Florida will start before the center of Ian makes landfall and continue after it has passed. The models agree that the storm is going to pass very slowly through the state, but any way you slice it, much of Florida is going to get a whole lot of rain.

It would be great if we could send all that water to Lake Meade, wouldn't it?

 

[Divin'Papaw]

We're divers....we don't trust NOAA.(ie-GFS)
But we do trust the EURO model
The EURO says 3 days and a TON of rain + flooding

The storm is over 500 miles in diameter and Florida is only 150 miles wide
Every Floridian is going to get hit with water, just gotta tread for a while!

The EURO model costs money to see, but this is the only FREE link I know of & you can scroll the times & watch the pressure readings = wind speed.

ECMWF Model

ECMWF model forecast of MSLP Norm. Anomaly for North Atlantic

www.tropicaltidbits.com

Ian is trending WAY too close to where I'm sitting and typing this message But we're ready. Just not looking forward to it. But as @Johnoly said, a good 80-90% of the state are going to feel something from this beast. The only ones that are going to escape this are those in the western panhandle.

 

[Divin'Papaw]

To be fair, the NHC numbers are only about the center of the storm. Obviously the rain in Florida will start before the center of Ian makes landfall and continue after it has passed. The models agree that the storm is going to pass very slowly through the state, but any way you slice it, much of Florida is going to get a whole lot of rain.

It would be great if we could send all that water to Lake Meade, wouldn't it?

A good part of the southern 1/3 of the state have been getting rain, much of it heavy, since mid-day yesterday.

 

[Manatee Diver]

A good part of the southern 1/3 of the state have been getting rain, much of it heavy, since mid-day yesterday.

We are just getting light rain since around noon. TBH this is the worst part you've done all you can now there is the sitting and waiting.

A friend of mine is part of the breaking news team for a major network travels for all the major news events, he is in town. Listen I like you man, but I don't want to see you at work.

 

[DandyDon]

Hide from the wind, run from the water....

Winds generally cause the most damage in hurricanes, but flooding takes more lives - or so I have read. I like to watch such storms online from 500 miles inland and 3280 feet elevation.