Prediction I just saw said Ernesto will hit Cozumel/Cancun as a Category 1 on Wednesday. While my first and foremost thoughts are hoping for the safety and welfare of the folks in the area, my far distant secondary thoughts are how does this affect a dive trip to Cozumel after the storm hits? How much damage can a Cat 1 do to the area and does the area recover quickly? I'm scheduled to fly in 11 days after its supposed to hit. I'd be inclined to go even if I can't dive to volunteer with the clean-up efforts if it comes to that.
A. It's still WAY too early to be certain about anything
B. I have not seen ONE prediction that states "Ernesto will hit Cancun/Cozumel as a Cat 1 on Wednesday" - you may interpret a model that way, but it's not an accurate statement. BTW, even if it hits Cancun, that doesn't necessarily mean we will have much effect. Cancun is 60 miles away, which can mean a big difference from a small storm like this.
C. If you're looking at the CONE, that trajectory is in between all of the models. The models are a more specific and accurate visual of where the eye will pass, which is important. The eye wall is where the strongest winds will be, and the further you get away from the eye, the weaker the winds get. This is a small storm and not very well organized - and unlikely to do anything but give us some thunderstorms and some uneventful windiness! It's likely that we will miss one MAYBE two days of diving if the Harbor Master decides to be overly cautious and close the port prematurely - but otherwise, we will be back in business within hours after Ernesto has officially passed us. Look at the wind map on the site below and you can see how much area is actually affected by the winds. As it gets closer to land, I am sure they will add the wind swath map to show how far reaching the hurricane force winds, vs. the tropical storm force winds, etc. are.
While I don't take ANY named storm lightly, this is not one any of us are particularly worried about at this point. YES, we are watching it hourly - but until Monday, we really won't have a clear picture of where it's going! But after a Cat 4 (Emily) and a three day Cat 5 (wilma) in the same year, anything less than a Cat 3 is more of an inconvenience than something we get serioulsy worried about.
Here are the latest computer model predictions - all of which show Ernie going north or south of us!
and it could get much more interesting in the next few days..
