Keep an eye on this one

[cvchief]

Can we NOT panic about not panicking?

Besides, August is the cool kids month. If it shows up, I am sure August won't let it in until Sept 1.....

 

[DandyDon]

Well it was supposed to be TS Ernesto this morning, but failed even that. The 5 days forecast was calling for a Cat-1 eventually, but not now. I don't think Ernie is going to be much of a threat. Still, since he has not been named yet, if you do not have Trip Ins (for August?!), now's the time to get it.

Now, if you ever have your bags packed, a super hurricane headed for Coz, and the airline calling to cancel you original flight to boot - punt and file your claims, rather than betting against the entire meteorological society that it would veer off like I did. I made it with alternate flights, then retreated two days later while they were getting the boats out of the water. Hell, I could have come out ahead on Trip Ins between the claims paid and airline credits, but instead I paid for the trip and lost most of it. H.Dean did veer off after I left, but diving had been suspended already - it was good that I finally left.

 

[Christi]

Jeff Masters is saying that it's unlikely that TD5 will even survive the weekend, it is falling apart. Good news for everyone!

 

[azscubadude]

Can we NOT panic about not panicking?

Besides, August is the cool kids month. If it shows up, I am sure August won't let it in until Sept 1.....

No panic here, but I think my map is prettier than Christi's..

 

[mediumone]

Yes, it is. But for damn sure, it's the only thing of yours that is.

 

[Christi]

Hahahaha! Your map IS prettier azscubadude! But I like the projectory of mine better

 

[Brules]

Went TS just now:

Looks like it won't be anything major though, at this point:

ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE
IS NOT THAT WELL ORGANIZED...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERAIRCRAFT FOUND SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 45 KT OVER THENORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THUS THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED AT THIS TIME. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BECOME MUCHMORE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION UNTIL ERNESTO REACHES THEWESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECASTSHOWS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS ISCONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST HWRF MODEL PREDICTION. ALTHOUGH THEOFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE NEAR THEEND OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...NEITHER THE GFS NOR THE ECMWF GLOBALMODELS DEPICT A STRONG CYCLONE AT THAT TIME.

 

[DandyDon]

Ok, so now it's too late to buy hurricane insurance. Still doesn't look like much, but it looks like Cat-1 is still possible. Airlines will allow free changes eventually if he continues to develop, as will most hotels.

 

[Hank49]

It's the curse of living in hurricane land. Watching....waiting....watching...
I long for the good old days. Back in the 80s, living in the Philippines the typhoon reports went like this, "a signal 3 typhoon hit southern Luzon yesterday...."

Now we wait....and wait. But one thing I've learned. NEVER take them lightly. A "tropical storm" can kick up to a cat 2 real fast and nobody saw it coming. Richard did that to Belize two...or was it three... years ago.

 

[Christi]

Anything could still happen. Discussion still predicts that it will weaken again and will not be a strong storm. And remember, the strongest winds are around the eyewall - so even if it does go through the Yucatan channel, chances of us having anything more than rain are slim!

As Don said, don't cancel trips yet - still way too early. The airlines WILL give you no penalty changes if needed - but if you cancel prematurely, you pay huge penalties. You have nothing to lose really by waiting. If the storm is a non-event for us, you still get to come. If at the last minute it looks like it's making a direct hit - you won't pay penalties for cancelling anyway!