Heads up

[DandyDon]

If you say so; I look at the NHC website several times a day when there are potential storms brewing and I never have seen the posted probability for this one higher than 40%.

It could have been a mistake at their end. I've learned not to argue with NHC.

 

[ggunn]

It could have been a mistake at their end. I've learned not to argue with NHC.

Who knows what lurks in the minds of algorithms? The shadow do...

 

[ggunn]

It could have been a mistake at their end. I've learned not to argue with NHC.

I just saw it change from 40% to 50% (last night) and then back to 40% (today), so yeah, it happens.

 

[Snoweman]

I was caught in something like this about five or six years ago here. Just before we were going in for our second dive, the call came in the radio the port was closed. We hightailed it back to the marina. I think I was wetter on the boat than in the water.

Today's squall....

 

[scubbq]

Those fancy Aldora boat coats came in handy this afternoon … felt like being an NFL player coming to the sideline in a snow game!

 

[ggunn]

Atlantic 7-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Eastern North Pacific 7-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

 

[DandyDon]

So, the disturbance closing on the Yucatan peninsula that did have a 60% chance of organizing in a week went up to 70% this morning, now at 80%. But it may have passed the peninsula by the time that happens; hard to say. I would prepare for possibly heavy rains. Some streets do have poor drainage. That orange area by the Cape Verde islands has a 50% chance in the coming week and it could really develop in the time it takes to blow across the Atlantic.

 

[DandyDon]

Now known as POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE, expectations are growing with Tropical Storm warnings from Havana to Tulum...

Winds expected to arrive tomorrow evening...

With it probably staying in the channel as it passes, it'll be increasingly fueled by the warm water as it heads towards Chicago...

 

[ggunn]

Since tropical storms spin counterclockwise and Cozumel is predicted to be on the west, "clean" side of the storm, the island likely won't get much bad weather from the storm. OTOH, for the same reason, any wind Cozumel will see likely will be from the north to northwest as the storm passes through the channel between the Yucatan and Cuba, so the port may be closed for a bit.

 

[DandyDon]

Her name will be Helene if nothing changes and she'll make hurricane strength after arriving on the Gulf and growing as she heads for the US.