Keep an eye on this one

[Magnolia3]

Jeff Masters is saying that it's unlikely that TD5 will even survive the weekend, it is falling apart. Good news for everyone!

So today has beat the predictions and forming an eyewall. the current predictions have it being pulled West and possibly a low will move it a bit further NW.. IbisEye has it coming right across Cozumel.

IbisEye: Your 2012 Hurricane source

---------- Post Merged at 06:46 PM ---------- Previous Post was at 06:40 PM ----------

It's the curse of living in hurricane land. Watching....waiting....watching...
I long for the good old days. Back in the 80s, living in the Philippines the typhoon reports went like this, "a signal 3 typhoon hit southern Luzon yesterday...."

Now we wait....and wait. But one thing I've learned. NEVER take them lightly. A "tropical storm" can kick up to a cat 2 real fast and nobody saw it coming. Richard did that to Belize two...or was it three... years ago.

Hank you are down in Stann Creek. If this thing turns to far to the NW into that low, it will more likely be hitting all my buds up in Corozal Town/Chetumal. I think you are right it won't intesify much at the speed its running before hitting some kind of land.

 

[DandyDon]

Some of the news agencies are running stories on Ernie as if it was a big deal. It's not.

And as far as where it is going, here's the historical paths of similar storms in the same area. Anyone alerted New Jersey...?! :laughing:

 

[Christi]

The post you are quoting me on was a decade ago in Hurricane tracking terms and I've made other posts since with updates citing reliable sources since then.

IbisEye is also a "cone" map -which takes all of the models and "averages" them to give a general path - hence the cone around the trajectory. If you read the actual hurricane center discussion, look at the wind maps, etc. - all models have it turning NW and going through the channel or less likely staying south of us and going to Belize. Regardless, it's STILL too early to know - it's still 5 days away if current predictions of it making landfall around 8am Wednesday stay true. Sunday or Monday we'll need to start making serious decisions based on what it does (how fast it moves, wind sheer, etc.) over the weekend.

I am simply trying to keep everyone up to date and trying to calm people's nerves that aren't familiar with these things. My divers for the week are already here (arrived today) - but I don't want others to cancel their vacations prematurely and risk losing thousands of dollars. As I said in a previous post, if it truly is a threat, the airlines will offer free cancelations/rescheduling - so wait on them to do that and you won't lose money!

I am NOT a weather expert, but I have been watching and living through these things for over 12 years now (plus my father is a structural engineer specializing in hurricane proofing tall buildings which makes storm watching an important part of his job, so I learned a lot from him on this topic of storm watching). With that said, it's also part of MY job to watch and monitor tropical weather during this time of year and I've learned how to read and get ALL of the info rather than relying on a basic general trajectory that takes ALL models into account.

Jeff Masters Blog with latest discussion:
Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait | Weather Underground


Prosdog, here is the wind swath I was referring to, you can watch this as well to get a picture of how the winds work. Tropical Storm ERNESTO




BTW Magnolia - after that super nasty PM you sent me calling me names, berating me and promising to "ignore" me - what happened? Did you decide that I had "something of value" to add? Or did you simply feel like disagreeing with me? It's perfectly ok if you have a different opinion, but I'm just trying to help provide as much info as possible to people, so if you just wanted to be nasty, your effort is wasted.

 

[cvchief]

Little tiny Cat 1?

1. Booze - Buy early in case they go dry.
2. Stay someplace substantial with concrete.
3. Ask your op if you will be diving the day after or two days after the storm ends.
4. Fill the tub if you have one so you have flush water.

I know a guy who took a flight to Coz to try to see a Cat 1. (It missed and he only saw rain....)

 

[azscubadude]

Jeff Masters Blog with latest discussion:
Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait | Weather Underground

I know the discussion is on Ernesto but after reading down the above blog a few paragraphs this popped out..

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

I was in Phoenix and Tucson, Az when they hit the hottest temps ever recorded there (June 26, 1990 - 122 degrees) and that was amazing, you almost couldn't breath. I grabbed the door handle of my car to open it and it took the skin off my fingers. It doesn't seem like much if you add 6 or 7 degrees to it for the hottest in Asian history but I'm sure felt twice as hot. (sorry for the hijack).

 

[cvchief]

I know the discussion is on Ernesto but after reading down the above blog a few paragraphs this popped out..

Kuwait hits 53.6°C (128.5°F): 2nd hottest temperature in Asian history
An extraordinary high temperature of 53.6°C (128.5°F) was recorded in Sulaibya, Kuwait on July 31, the hottest temperature in Kuwait's history, and the 2nd hottest temperature ever measured in Asia. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Sulaibya is in a location well-suited for recording extreme high temperatures, since high sand dunes surround the site, keeping the wind low and hampering sea breezes from cooling the city. Most record books list the 54°C (129.2°F) recorded on 21 June 1942 in Tirat Zvi Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature, but this record is disputed. The previous second warmest temperature in Asian history was set 53.5°C (128.3°F) at MohenjuDaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010.

I was in Phoenix and Tucson, Az when they hit the hottest temps ever recorded there (June 26, 1990 - 122 degrees) and that was amazing, you almost couldn't breath. I grabbed the door handle of my car to open it and it took the skin off my fingers. It doesn't seem like much if you add 6 or 7 degrees to it for the hottest in Asian history but I'm sure felt twice as hot. (sorry for the hijack).

You are going to get a dose of the ol' Dandy Don for that one....

 

[ggunn]

I was in Phoenix and Tucson, Az when they hit the hottest temps ever recorded there (June 26, 1990 - 122 degrees) and that was amazing, you almost couldn't breath.

I was waiting in line to get into a Grateful Dead concert just outside of Las Vegas in 1995 or so when it hit 115 degrees. No one seemed to mind.

 

[robbcayman]

The post you are quoting me on was a decade ago in Hurricane tracking terms and I've made other posts since with updates citing reliable sources since then.

IbisEye is also a "cone" map -which takes all of the models and "averages" them to give a general path - hence the cone around the trajectory. If you read the actual hurricane center discussion, look at the wind maps, etc. - all models have it turning NW and going through the channel or less likely staying south of us and going to Belize. Regardless, it's STILL too early to know - it's still 5 days away if current predictions of it making landfall around 8am Wednesday stay true. Sunday or Monday we'll need to start making serious decisions based on what it does (how fast it moves, wind sheer, etc.) over the weekend.

I am simply trying to keep everyone up to date and trying to calm people's nerves that aren't familiar with these things. My divers for the week are already here (arrived today) - but I don't want others to cancel their vacations prematurely and risk losing thousands of dollars. As I said in a previous post, if it truly is a threat, the airlines will offer free cancelations/rescheduling - so wait on them to do that and you won't lose money!

I am NOT a weather expert, but I have been watching and living through these things for over 12 years now (plus my father is a structural engineer specializing in hurricane proofing tall buildings which makes storm watching an important part of his job, so I learned a lot from him on this topic of storm watching). With that said, it's also part of MY job to watch and monitor tropical weather during this time of year and I've learned how to read and get ALL of the info rather than relying on a basic general trajectory that takes ALL models into account.

Jeff Masters Blog with latest discussion:
Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : Ernesto hit the Windward Islands; 128.5°F in Kuwait | Weather Underground


Prosdog, here is the wind swath I was referring to, you can watch this as well to get a picture of how the winds work. Tropical Storm ERNESTO

View attachment 131430


BTW Magnolia - after that super nasty PM you sent me calling me names, berating me and promising to "ignore" me - what happened? Did you decide that I had "something of value" to add? Or did you simply feel like disagreeing with me? It's perfectly ok if you have a different opinion, but I'm just trying to help provide as much info as possible to people, so if you just wanted to be nasty, your effort is wasted.

Hopefully the thing will stall out. Stay safe, Christi.

 

[Cumbo]

Wow, we're going to Cozumel tomorrow (we are in Mexico already) and would be leaving on 9th to Tulum. I guess we'll have to start making a plan B. We have hotels booked until 13 August in Yucatan.

I wonder if sites like Booking.com or Hotels.com accept cancels in cases like this?

 

[DandyDon]

112F at the OKC airport two days in a row. Wind helps, but jet blasts don't.

I was waiting in line to get into a Grateful Dead concert just outside of Las Vegas in 1995 or so when it hit 115 degrees. No one seemed to mind.

Being stoned is a false feeling of safety.

Wow, we're going to Cozumel tomorrow (we are in Mexico already) and would be leaving on 9th to Tulum. I guess we'll have to start making a plan B. We have hotels booked until 13 August in Yucatan.

I wonder if sites like Booking.com or Hotels.com accept cancels in cases like this?

Keeping in mind that there is a good chance the storm will veer off another direction than the illustrated path, which is simply an average of various computer guesses - it's prudent to plan ahead for what-ifs. If it were indeed to hit Coz, at the current projected speed - that would be Tuesday night, subject to change. By Thursday, the 9th, he should be long gone - north of the peninsula in the Gulf. See my map in post #6 above.

He is only expected to be Cat-1, 74-95 mph/ 119-153 kph, and the buildings are really built to stand that sort of blow. Hell, I've driven faster than that. You want to be prepared for it, hide from it, but not a biggie. The ferry boats may well be moved elsewhere on Tuesday, brought back on Wednesday, and running on time by Thursday. Tulum should also be fine.

Anything can change of course, for better or worse. If you need to stay on Coz an extra day, your hotel can probably accommodate you. Policies for changes and cancellations probably depend on the hotels more than the site used to booked, but then I like to confirm reservations booked that way directly with the hotels anyway. Your reservations should have those details and contact info.

Heck, coming from Finland, this could just add top the adventure.