Keep an eye on this one

[geokr]

Well, it's August and the storms are coming. The NWS just listed this as "Five" right now but with a 60% chance of becoming "Ernesto" in the next few days. And, it's pointing right at Coz. As they say in the Navy...."Stand by....."

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N45W 13N47W...
TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N47W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 47W AND 51W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA ELSEWHERE FROM
6N TO 16N BETWEEN 43W AND 52W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER MAY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 17 KT. ANYONE WHO LIVES IN THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND/OR WHO HAS INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

 

[azscubadude]

Well, it's August and the storms are coming. The NWS just listed this as "Five" right now but with a 60% chance of becoming "Ernesto" in the next few days. And, it's pointing right at Coz. As they say in the Navy...."Stand by....."

Are you referring to this one (bigger view).. WeatherUnderground-StormTrak

 

[Christi]

Yes, we will keep an eye on it - but to say it is pointing "right at Coz" is simply not accurate! It's still way too early to tell and the models are all over the place.

Also remember, that unless a storm is a DIRECT hit - we are rarely affected any more than we are with a typical thunderstorm.

Yes, we need to keep an eye on it, but please don't start hysteria prematurely unless you are a professional meteorologist, and even then - it's still too early!

Here are the models!

Tropical Depression Five: Computer Model Hurricane Forecasts | Weather Underground

 

[prosdog]

Between tropical depressions/hurricanes, bomb scares at my airport (San Antonio) today and a potential United Airlines strike, I wonder if I'm going to be there on the 19th. Hope the storm passes you guys by and y'all stay safe.

 

[travelpro]

Blah blah blah. Let's just get out and dive

 

[DandyDon]

What Christi said! Way too early to be worried; just watch the weather whether there is one or not. Yes, it will be Ernesto by Thursday and is expected to make Cat-1, but who knows where it will go.

I hope you already have Trip Insurance tho.

This map should auto update, but it'll be a week before we know how close it will get...

 

[ggunn]

I agree; it's way too early to go into panic mode over this storm. Keep an eye on it, certainly, but the odds at this point are low that it will affect Cozumel, as they are for any other specific spot you can pick which is as far away from it. The only thing we can say about it is that it will most probably head generally west and north for a while from where it is now. Time will tell.

 

[diverokc]

My first time to cozumel was last sept. and i am going back this sept. Seems like they always are pointed at cozumel but miss or go around. Hopefully this trend of going around will continue. I saw pics and videos of wilma- and it did not look like fun.

 

[socaljohn]

I was on a cruise last October with a 2 tank dive trip scheduled in Coz the day the Rina was in Coz...
Pretty bummed as I am not sure when I will have another chance to dive the Caribbean. On the up side, the operator, Cozumel tours processed my refund without me even calling..Can't say the same for Norwegian who only processes refunds after you call. And that was a heck of a ride on the ship.
Sure hope it dies out and everybody gets to "get out and dive" as Travelpro said.

 

[DivingIvan]

Noooooo, I will be on a Carnival Cruise next week in that area, hopefully it will stay north and not affect Cozumel, Belize, Roatan and Costa Maya.