Chris, that is still 100 miles south! Still a non-event!
Latest update says it will make landfall about midnight, which makes sense since the center is currently DIRECTLY south of the island by about 100 - 120 miles. You can also see that the center of the storm is already approaching land.
Current conditions on the island at 7:40pm with the storm in the above location: light winds (trees and treetops along my street are barely moving) and not raining.
Here is Jeff Masters update: Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : Ernesto reaches hurricane strength as it approaches the Yucatan | Weather Underground
Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto will continue to track west this afternoon and evening, making landfall north of the Belize/Mexico border around midnight tonight. Given the current state of the hurricane, some more intensification is possible over the next few hours as it approaches land. Heavy rains continue to be the main threat from Hurricane Ernesto. The Hurricane Center is forecasting 4 to 8 inches of rain to fall, increasing in the higher elevation of Belize. After landfall, the storm will take about a day to cross the Yucatan, and the terrain will diminish its winds. Once Ernesto re-emerges over water into the Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico, wind shear will be light and ocean waters warm with high heat content. Ernesto is then expected to redevelop some strength and potentially regain hurricane status while over water, which a few of the models are suggesting. Second landfall will probably occur Friday morning around Veracruz, Mexico, but could reach land anywhere from Tuxapan to Coatzacoalcos.
Latest update says it will make landfall about midnight, which makes sense since the center is currently DIRECTLY south of the island by about 100 - 120 miles. You can also see that the center of the storm is already approaching land.
Current conditions on the island at 7:40pm with the storm in the above location: light winds (trees and treetops along my street are barely moving) and not raining.
Here is Jeff Masters update: Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : Ernesto reaches hurricane strength as it approaches the Yucatan | Weather Underground
Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto will continue to track west this afternoon and evening, making landfall north of the Belize/Mexico border around midnight tonight. Given the current state of the hurricane, some more intensification is possible over the next few hours as it approaches land. Heavy rains continue to be the main threat from Hurricane Ernesto. The Hurricane Center is forecasting 4 to 8 inches of rain to fall, increasing in the higher elevation of Belize. After landfall, the storm will take about a day to cross the Yucatan, and the terrain will diminish its winds. Once Ernesto re-emerges over water into the Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico, wind shear will be light and ocean waters warm with high heat content. Ernesto is then expected to redevelop some strength and potentially regain hurricane status while over water, which a few of the models are suggesting. Second landfall will probably occur Friday morning around Veracruz, Mexico, but could reach land anywhere from Tuxapan to Coatzacoalcos.
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