... It is also a horrible time to enter the field given the low price of oil. ...
The timing seems really bad.
Those who are allergic to the dismal science should just skip this post.
Moe, I write software that tracks things that happen online. Last year, when the price of commodities started moving huge amounts, I decided to use your general dilemma as a test case: should a young man with various options enter the commercial diving field?
For a lark, and also because I am enchanted by commercial diving in a hugely impractical and romantic way, I started tracking the types, conditions and prices of various hats for sale online.
The hypothesis is simple. If the economy becomes bad enough, divers facing hard choices may choose to liquidate their gear. I should be able to track this by following certain themes that always reappear.
For example, in the last twelve months, I have not seen the price of [used] [Kirby Morgan] [Superlite] helmets fall much. There are occasional obvious cases of distress, but these are sporadic. Generally, these high-quality helmets seem to hold their value and provide good resale prices.
What I have seen is a large increase in the number of hats offered for sale, and the number of weeks each one stays for sale.
I have also seen unusual stuff coming out of the woodwork. This may be because I am getting better at sniffing them out, but I doubt that. This summer, I am seeing highly specialized gear listed. Military hats. Jewel reclaim regs. Entire closets full of brand new spare parts that a technician would use to rebuild the hats in the field.
From these data, I draw two conclusions, and also prepare my flameproof suit.
1) There are more hats for sale because the offshore industry is in distress.
This is not a clever insight. Nice big DSVs are going into mothballs. Industry trade magazines have been describing this for some time, but they paint a sanitized picture in abstract. They don't describe fallout, or human cost, as Heliumthief does.
2) Helmet prices have not fallen because the distress is not over, and may not really be fully started.
A worker with specialized skills and tools may hold out hope to return to a good job after an economic recovery. If an economic downturn continues for longer than the worker's savings can hold out, the worker may choose to throw in the towel and sell the specialized equipment.
If the recovery is less than raging, some workers will feel that their chance is "just around the corner", and will hold out "just a bit longer".
This happens in the stock market every day. An investor will lose all hope, say "screw this, I should have never gotten into this, get me out of this position now", and sell at a loss. This kind of doom-and-gloom selling is called capitulation.
When we start to see larger numbers of divers capitulate, and start dumping used helmets on the market at deeply discounted prices, then we can assume that we are scraping along the bottom of the downturn.
Ideally, a recovery follows.
That would be a good time to be graduating from SBCC.