Gustav

[ggunn]

The next 12 hours will tell us a lot. I spend a lot of time over at storm2k.org and there are a lot of people on there that think Gustav is being pulled more north than west. If that is the case it is going to run into the mountains of Cuba and dissipate. But, just as you said, the only people you should be listening to is the NHC. They are the experts and are usually very good at predicting these things.

As a native Louisianian I have tracked a lot of storms over the years, and I cannot remember any storms that were killed by a Cuba crossing. The may lose a little strength there, but they don't dissipate in Cuba's mountains.

 

[dive pro]

These storms can never be predicted, a lot have changed paths like Fay just did,
specially being far from the area, in 20 years I have been here we have had storms that were coming directly (Cancun) but never made it, others that "parked" for 3 days between chetumal and belize", Ivan several years ago passed in between our state and Cuba and it did affect us here, the ports at Cancun closed at least 3 days and I remember our shop had to cancel our Coz.Trip
We monitor nhc.noaa.gov and the Mexican Gvnt sites like the Secretary of Communications and Transports of whom depend all the harbor masters (the ones who decide if we can or not go out), their last advisory states at 1730 that T.S. Gustav has sustained max.winds of 34 to 55 knots (63-102km/h, 39 to 63mph) Gustav's radio of winds of 63km/h,34knots,39mph,is of 83km (45miles) from its eye, and 4mts 12ft waves to a distance of 111km(60miles)from its eye on the northwest cuadrant of the storm. We (Cancun) are located about 215kms from the northwest point of Cuba IF IT STAYS AS IS NOW AND ON ITS PATH, we would get probably 35 to 40km/h winds and 6 to 7 ft waves. I do have trips on Fri. Sat. and Sun. to Coz and have warned our divers but it will still be a go until 7am Fri. morning that the Harbor Masters will determine if it opens or closes. The advisories from the Harbor Master can be viewed in spanish at Coordinación General de Puertos y Marina Mercante: Inf. Meteorológica. I am NOT qualified to predict anything or would not even dare to, but I think we will get a little rain and probably one day of adventure diving (waves) hopefully, but there is always the chance that it changes path.
I hope this info is helpful and like it was mentioned here WAIT UNTIL FRIDAY THEN CANCEL

 

[judydivescoz]

My husband is working in St Francisville Louisiana and his workplace is now preparing for the worst. His brother and wife live on a boat in Port Aransas Texas and are begining to make their plans as well. I would be nice if the mountains in Cuba could make it go away.

 

[DandyDon]

Expert guesses are thinking just a little further west than this morning but it's going to be a who-knows? game the rest of the week.

As are my sister and bro-in-law in Slidell. Today's 5 day prediction has Gustav coming in to Louisiana on the same track as Katrina.

Yep, but hope The Powers take this one more seriously. Best wishes to yours there.

As a native Louisianian I have tracked a lot of storms over the years, and I cannot remember any storms that were killed by a Cuba crossing. The may lose a little strength there, but they don't dissipate in Cuba's mountains.

Yeah, tallest mountain at over 6,000 ft is on the east end near Gitmo. It could cross the Sierra de los Organos range at over 2,000 ft high, but wouldn't matter much to the storm - altho it could be a problem for those there. They know what these are tho. Hehe, Texas was getting info on the Great Storm of 1900 from Cuba before it leveled Galveston sand bar.

Dr Masters is thinking rain in the Yucatan Saturday...

Gustav's impact on Cuba and Mexico's Cancun/Cozumel region

If you're in the cone of uncertainty, you're at risk. Hurricane forecasts are uncertain, and this uncertainty is graphically represented by the cone of uncertainty around the central "best guess" forecast positions. Cancun and Cozumel are both at the edge of the cone of uncertainty, so could get a direct hit from Gustav. At present, though, it appears that Mexico's Yucatan will only have one day of heavy rain (Saturday) with some winds gusts of 40 mph. The odds of Cozumel getting sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph or greater) are 20%, as indicated in NHC's wind probability product. The odds of hurricane force winds are 9%.

The portion of the world most likely to suffer a major hurricane strike from Gustav will be western Cuba. Gustav is likely to make landfall as a major hurricane somewhere along this stretch of coast, bringing a storm surge of 10-15 feet to the right of where the eye come ashore. Gustav may bring hurricane-force winds to the capital, Havana (on the north shore), which would cause heavy damage to the many poorly-built structures in the city.

Not much threat to the Cancun-Cozumel area. I don't think Continental will know if they want to land Saturday or not until that day. With one Houston flight landing at 11.19 and the other at 2.28, out at 3.26, they may not be affected at all. Maybe it'll won't drench y'all until after days dives are over; could make getting to dinner fun. Wish you travelers the best!. BTW, if you are consulting your trip insurance carrier, Gustav has made hurricane status, got weakened some by the Haitian hit, predicted by NHC to make it again. Different carriers have different rules about such.

Has everyone filled their tanks...?

Gustav's potential impact on the oil and gas industry

The price of U.S. crude oil has jumped about 2%, and the price of U.S. natural gas has increased 11% in the past two days, in anticipation that Gustav might rip through the oil and gas production areas of the Gulf of Mexico. About 25% of U.S. crude oil and 15% of its natural gas are produced in the Gulf of Mexico. As seen in Figure 3, the oil production areas are concentrated along the Louisiana and Texas coast. If Gustav makes a landfall on the right side of its cone of uncertainty, in Alabama or the Florida Panhandle, the oil and gas infrastructure might not be significantly affected. However, most of the cone of uncertainty lies in the major oil and gas producing areas, and I give a 60% chance that Gustav will significantly hurt oil and gas production in the Gulf.

 

[DandyDon]

Not much good news this evening. Gus got pushed "to the southwest, and pumped in some dry air into the northwest side of Gustav. As a result of this dry air, and the weakening of the circulation due to interaction with Haiti's mountains, Gustav was forced to form a new center under heavy thunderstorms on its south side, away from Haiti and the dry air. As a result, Gustav is now pounding Jamaica," from Dr Masters.

This is push its possible route to a closer affect on the Yucatan, albeit still a small risk there. Coz is still just out of the cone, Cancun and Holbox barely inside the possible cone, with chances of strong winds slightly higher than yesterday. TS Hanna also shown in the wind pic. Hoping the planes all get in and out before anything happens Saturday and y'all get some good diving in Saturday before the pass as well as Sunday after.

Also from Dr Master...

Gustav is currently a very small storm, similar in size to Hurricane Andrew of 1992. Tropical storm force winds extend out only 50 miles from the center. NHC is forecasting that Gustav will remain small over the next three days, with tropical storm-force winds expanding out only to a 75 miles radius.

Gustav's impact on Cuba and Mexico's Cancun/Cozumel region
If you're in the cone of uncertainty, you're at risk. Hurricane forecasts are uncertain, and this uncertainty is graphically represented by the cone of uncertainty around the central "best guess" forecast positions. Cancun and Cozumel are both in the cone of uncertainty, so could get a direct hit from Gustav. At present, though, it appears that Mexico's Yucatan will only have one day of heavy rain (Saturday) with some winds gusts of 40-50 mph. The odds of Cozumel getting sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph or greater) are not much higher, though, and have increased to 29%, as indicated in NHC's wind probability product. The odds of hurricane force winds are 6%.

The portion of the world most likely to suffer a major hurricane strike from Gustav will be western Cuba. If Gustav makes landfall as a major hurricane somewhere along this stretch of coast, it may bring a storm surge of 10-15 feet to the right of where the eye come ashore.

Gus does seem quite intent on Louisiana but then all of this is subject to change every day as well all know. Continental is allowing no fee ticket changes to almost anyone traveling north and west of Gus, even to Florida. And there are several more lined up on the Sahara to be launched. :lol2: It's that time of year.

 

[Christi]

The odds of Cozumel getting sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph or greater) are not much higher, though, and have increased to 29%, as indicated in NHC's wind probability product. The odds of hurricane force winds are 6%.

I still like these odds...and the models seem to be holding steady and are more in agreement than they were yesterday...so I'm remaining cautiously optimistic.


And let's not make things worse than they are...Hanna probably won't affect anyone, and the next disturbance looks as if it will fizzle out according to NOAA. The one coming off Africa right now is a baby, so we'll just have to see what it does in the next few days...but I refuse to panic or stress prematurely

 

[DandyDon]

I still like these odds...and the models seem to be holding steady and are more in agreement than they were yesterday...so I'm remaining cautiously optimistic.

And let's not make things worse than they are...Hanna probably won't affect anyone, and the next disturbance looks as if it will fizzle out according to NOAA. The one coming off Africa right now is a baby, so we'll just have to see what it does in the next few days...but I refuse to panic or stress prematurely

Yeah it looks like Gus will probly be more of an irritation than a problem for the Yucatan. I mentioned Hanna only to explain the other storm on one map there as she seems headed for the Carolinas as much as anyplace. The rest are just potentials to watch next week...

 

[diverrex]

Not much good news this evening. Gus got pushed "to the southwest, and pumped in some dry air into the northwest side of Gustav. As a result of this dry air, and the weakening of the circulation due to interaction with Haiti's mountains, Gustav was forced to form a new center under heavy thunderstorms on its south side, away from Haiti and the dry air. As a result, Gustav is now pounding Jamaica," from Dr Masters.

This is push its possible route to a closer affect on the Yucatan, albeit still a small risk there. Coz is still just out of the cone, Cancun and Holbox barely inside the possible cone, with chances of strong winds slightly higher than yesterday. TS Hanna also shown in the wind pic. Hoping the planes all get in and out before anything happens Saturday and y'all get some good diving in Saturday before the pass as well as Sunday after.

Also from Dr Master...


Gus does seem quite intent on Louisiana but then all of this is subject to change every day as well all know. Continental is allowing no fee ticket changes to almost anyone traveling north and west of Gus, even to Florida. And there are several more lined up on the Sahara to be launched. :lol2: It's that time of year.

While it's not good news I'm not so sure it's bad news for Cozumel. People tend to look at that wide cone of uncertainty and imagine the force of the hurricane spreading clear across. As you pointed out this is a small storm. A direct hit is still a small probability. I'm heading down to Coz Saturday morning. It won't surprise me to find sun on Saturday and good diving on Sunday.

As the recently reposted article from Aldora points out more diving days are lost to wind in high season than hurricanes in low season.

 

[lamont]

Not much good news this evening. Gus got pushed "to the southwest, and pumped in some dry air into the northwest side of Gustav. As a result of this dry air, and the weakening of the circulation due to interaction with Haiti's mountains, Gustav was forced to form a new center under heavy thunderstorms on its south side, away from Haiti and the dry air. As a result, Gustav is now pounding Jamaica," from Dr Masters.

This is push its possible route to a closer affect on the Yucatan, albeit still a small risk there. Coz is still just out of the cone, Cancun and Holbox barely inside the possible cone, with chances of strong winds slightly higher than yesterday. TS Hanna also shown in the wind pic. Hoping the planes all get in and out before anything happens Saturday and y'all get some good diving in Saturday before the pass as well as Sunday after.

The model tracks also slowed down considerably and added another 24h before it'll hit the yucatan-cuba line. Its westward motion has been showing a tendency to stall out. Might be bad new for cuba if it then slowly moves north and rakes cuba over the coals...

 

[ggunn]

This morning's models indicate that Cozumelenos should keep an eye on Hanna as well.