Gustav

[Christi]

A more severe meaning of "rake" as in "to rake over the coals" is a pretty common interpretation.

Yes, and that's how I read that statement

Thanks too for clarifying your statement Don

 

[Damselfish]

Isn't English a wonderful language ...

 

[lamont]

UKMET is now the only model taking it between yucatan and cuba, the rest of the models steer it over western cuba. Since yesterday the model tracks have shifted it away from cozumel.

Disclaimer: IANAM (I Am Not A Meteorologist), and this should not be interpreted as trip planning advice =)

OTOH, anyone thinking about the Caymans should think again:

"This shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range (0-15 knots) for the remainder of the week. By Friday, as Gustav approaches the Cayman Islands, the storm will be underneath an upper level anticyclone, and over the highest heat content waters of the Atlantic. The HWRF and GFDL models respond by intensifying Gustav to a Category 3 hurricane as it passes through the Caymans. I think it is plausible that Gustav could intensify further, to Category 4 strength, before hitting the Caymans. If you have plans to be on the northern Cayman Islands--Cayman Brac or Little Cayman Island--on Friday, be prepared to be stuck there for several days, as Gustav may heavily damage these islands. Grand Cayman Island is also at risk--the GFDL model predicts Gustav will pass very close to Grand Cayman on Friday afternoon."

 

[Firerescueguy]

The storm tracking is looking alot better for Cozumel. But, the tracking will deffiantly effect Cuba and alot of uncertaintee for the United States at this point.

 

[Pony]

My advise is to watch closely, but don't make your travel decisions until Friday. On the current track, the storm will still be quite a way out from us on Friday afternoon/Saturday morning. The airlines will make decisions about that time...and if you cancel prematurely (before the airlines do) then you will face normal flight cancellation penalties, etc. You have nothing to lose really by waiting until the last minute to cancel, and more to lose if you cancel prematurely and then we are unaffected as the models are now showing and are more in agreement.

If it says on current track, we might have some rain, but even then, we are on the southeast side of the storm (the "clean/dry" side) and WELL outside of the hurricanes/TS wind range. This is a small storm and the winds are only extending out 50 miles from the eye.

As far as visibility, with all due respect...that really should be the least of our concerns when watching a storm...but in the worst case vis for Cozumel is about 60ft.

I am watching this storm, but I am optimistic that the current track will hold and we'll be fine here. The next 24 to 48 hours will give us a much better picture.

I'm banking on Christi's prediction....Arriving Sunday and Diving with Blue XT from Hotel Coz See you Monday Christi

 

[cowdog77]

The models have been constantly shifting for the last few days.

Since Gus is still pretty far east there's no telling at this point where it will hit......whether it "rakes" Cozumel or heads towards Pensacola...no one can state with certainty...yet. Our relatives in Louisiana are concerned, as is my daughter in Corpus.

 

[diverrex]

Not sure where you're getting your info Don...but Cozumel is not even in the projected path at this point. Don't confuse the satellite image size with the actual "tough part" of the storm. Although clouds may extend outward, that does not put us in danger. And I will disagree with you about no diving on Sunday, and with respect, you're not really qualified to make that statement. If it stays on the projected path, there is no reason the port would be closed. Rain, which all we will have if the course stays as is...has never closed the port.

Based on the existing track I'm expecting to be diving on Christi's boat on Sunday. My biggest worry at this point is that Continental may be overly cautious and cancel or delay flights on Saturday

 

[ggunn]

Our relatives in Louisiana are concerned...

As are my sister and bro-in-law in Slidell. Today's 5 day prediction has Gustav coming in to Louisiana on the same track as Katrina.

 

[lamont]

The models have been constantly shifting for the last few days.

Since Gus is still pretty far east there's no telling at this point where it will hit......whether it "rakes" Cozumel or heads towards Pensacola...no one can state with certainty...yet. Our relatives in Louisiana are concerned, as is my daughter in Corpus.

Generally the models are pretty good 2 days out, though, and none of the models are taking it over Cozumel, and the models are showing a trend towards hitting Cuba rather than hitting Cozumel (all the models are shifting east towards cuba).

Its possible that Gustov gets a mind of his own and decides to plow into Cozumel, but its really unlikely at this point.

Now, nobody knows where it'll wind up tracking after it gets across Cuba. Looking like its between the florida panhandle and louisiana, but all the gulf states are probably in play. That is much further out than 2 days, though.

 

[Nitrox624]

UKMET is now the only model taking it between yucatan and cuba, the rest of the models steer it over western cuba. Since yesterday the model tracks have shifted it away from cozumel.

Disclaimer: IANAM (I Am Not A Meteorologist), and this should not be interpreted as trip planning advice =)

OTOH, anyone thinking about the Caymans should think again:

"This shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range (0-15 knots) for the remainder of the week. By Friday, as Gustav approaches the Cayman Islands, the storm will be underneath an upper level anticyclone, and over the highest heat content waters of the Atlantic. The HWRF and GFDL models respond by intensifying Gustav to a Category 3 hurricane as it passes through the Caymans. I think it is plausible that Gustav could intensify further, to Category 4 strength, before hitting the Caymans. If you have plans to be on the northern Cayman Islands--Cayman Brac or Little Cayman Island--on Friday, be prepared to be stuck there for several days, as Gustav may heavily damage these islands. Grand Cayman Island is also at risk--the GFDL model predicts Gustav will pass very close to Grand Cayman on Friday afternoon."

The next 12 hours will tell us a lot. I spend a lot of time over at storm2k.org and there are a lot of people on there that think Gustav is being pulled more north than west. If that is the case it is going to run into the mountains of Cuba and dissipate. But, just as you said, the only people you should be listening to is the NHC. They are the experts and are usually very good at predicting these things.