Gustav

[lamont]

here's the current model tracks:

it looks like they are favoring cuba or the yucatan channel, but there's considerable error in the tracks.

should know more by 8pm on friday (but still it could stall out before then).

 

[Christi]

My advise is to watch closely, but don't make your travel decisions until Friday. On the current track, the storm will still be quite a way out from us on Friday afternoon/Saturday morning. The airlines will make decisions about that time...and if you cancel prematurely (before the airlines do) then you will face normal flight cancellation penalties, etc. You have nothing to lose really by waiting until the last minute to cancel, and more to lose if you cancel prematurely and then we are unaffected as the models are now showing and are more in agreement.

If it says on current track, we might have some rain, but even then, we are on the southeast side of the storm (the "clean/dry" side) and WELL outside of the hurricanes/TS wind range. This is a small storm and the winds are only extending out 50 miles from the eye.

As far as visibility, with all due respect...that really should be the least of our concerns when watching a storm...but in the worst case vis for Cozumel is about 60ft.

I am watching this storm, but I am optimistic that the current track will hold and we'll be fine here. The next 24 to 48 hours will give us a much better picture.

 

[CozumelAntonio]

My advise is to watch closely, but don't make your travel decisions until Friday. On the current track, the storm will still be quite a way out from us on Friday afternoon/Saturday morning. The airlines will make decisions about that time...and if you cancel prematurely (before the airlines do) then you will face normal flight cancellation penalties, etc. You have nothing to lose really by waiting until the last minute to cancel, and more to lose if you cancel prematurely and then we are unaffected as the models are now showing and are more in agreement.

If it says on current track, we might have some rain, but even then, we are on the southeast side of the storm (the "clean/dry" side) and WELL outside of the hurricanes/TS wind range. This is a small storm and the winds are only extending out 50 miles from the eye.

As far as visibility, with all due respect...that really should be the least of our concerns when watching a storm...but in the worst case vis for Cozumel is about 60ft.

I am watching this storm, but I am optimistic that the current track will hold and we'll be fine here. The next 24 to 48 hours will give us a much better picture.

Ditto....

 

[cheesehead]

...I am watching this storm, but I am optimistic that the current track will hold and we'll be fine here. The next 24 to 48 hours will give us a much better picture.

How about bringing in your seahorse employees on Paradise for safe keeping? (and I'm hoping this is as serious as we all need to be about Gustav) Good luck

tim

 

[NitroxAZ]

Thanks Antonio and Christi.

I agree that it is the least of concerns regarding a storm as life and home is the most important consideration. I was just curious about what the effects to our vacation would be and didn't mean to sound callous. All are in our prayers and thoughts.

 

[DandyDon]

I'm due to arrive 11:17 AM on Saturday. Obviously I'm hoping the storm heads north and not west.

I'd be talking to my trip insurance provider about what they'd approve at this point. I kinda doubt there'll be any diving Sunday and Saturday may be a rainy day travel. But then, while I'd talk to my insurance company, I'd still want to go as planned; I'm sure you do too and hope it works out.

The hills of Haiti took some power out of him but he's expected to re-engergize to Cat-3 before raking Cozumel then going to New Orleans or Houston if he continues that path. He may cut across Cuba and head for Pensacola.

Hoping for the best....

 

[ggunn]

We are due to arrive next Monday afternoon and am curious if it tracks as predicted now which is through the western tip of Cuba, what will that do to the viz in Cozumel?

That said/asked, we will definitely have all of those affected by Gustav in our prayers.

I have been on Cozumel when a tropical storm passed through the strait between Cuba and the Yucatan. It was a little cloudy with a light north wind. The viz was a little down on the most southern dive sites due to wave action on the sand on the south end of the island, but the viz on the other dive sites was unaffected. The western side of tropical storms is often referred to as the "clean" side.

 

[Christi]

I'd be talking to my trip insurance provider about what they'd approve at this point. I kinda doubt there'll be any diving Sunday and Saturday may be a rainy day travel. But then, while I'd talk to my insurance company, I'd still want to go as planned; I'm sure you do too and hope it works out.

The hills of Haiti took some power out of him but he's expected to re-engergize to Cat-3 before raking Cozumel then going to New Orleans or Houston if he continues that path. He may cut across Cuba and head for Pensacola.

Hoping for the best....

Not sure where you're getting your info Don...but Cozumel is not even in the projected path at this point. Don't confuse the satellite image size with the actual "tough part" of the storm. Although clouds may extend outward, that does not put us in danger. And I will disagree with you about no diving on Sunday, and with respect, you're not really qualified to make that statement. If it stays on the projected path, there is no reason the port would be closed. Rain, which all we will have if the course stays as is...has never closed the port.

 

[DandyDon]

Not sure where you're getting your info Don...but Cozumel is not even in the projected path at this point. Don't confuse the satellite image size with the actual "tough part" of the storm. Although clouds may extend outward, that does not put us in danger. And I will disagree with you about no diving on Sunday, and with respect, you're not really qualified to make that statement. If it stays on the projected path, there is no reason the port would be closed. Rain, which all we will have if the course stays as is...has never closed the port.

Nope it's not. I said "raking Cozumel," as in to rake: 3 a: to touch in passing over lightly. That may be a country boy's term tho; sorry if the urban folks weren't familiar. I know I talk differently.

On relooking, I see the chance of wind there is not so much after all. I hope all you get is a nice rain... :10:

 

[Damselfish]

A more severe meaning of "rake" as in "to rake over the coals" is a pretty common interpretation.