Catastrophic Hurricane Felix

[DandyDon]

Looks like Invest 91 has dropped off, but 94 is concerning...

000
WONT41 KNHC 311310
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
910 AM AST FRI AUG 31 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS COULD BE DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO CONFIRM IF A DEPRESSION HAS
FORMED. WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND ALL INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD BE READY
TO TAKE QUICK ACTION...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

Edit - Upgraded to TD 6...

 

[Hank49]

Looks to be on the same path as Dean. The first projection you posted looks like it's headed right for Dangriga or central Belize....dead on.

 

[DandyDon]

Yep, too far out to start boarding windows or canceling visits, but possible. Good luck.

I remember years ago that Windjammer took their little ships to the southern Caribe in "hurricane season" - I was on the Poly during H.Debbi getting rained on everyday around St.Lucia. Have the trends changed in the last 10 years...?

 

[DandyDon]

He's got a name now: Tropical Storm FELIX

000
WTNT31 KNHC 011444
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 01 2007
...FELIX MOVING AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND STRENGTHENING...

AT 8 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA IS DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO PEDERNALES INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF MARGARITA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FELIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST OR ABOUT 455 MILES...730 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 600 MILES...965 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...FELIX WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FELIX COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS OF VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES ISLANDS OF ARBUA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...12.3 N...63.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

 

[Rick Murchison]

Won't be much divin' in Bonaire for a few days...
Bonaire, Curacao, Aruba... the Bay Islands... Belize... doesn't look good.
Rick

 

[Tomeck]

No good for Belize : http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/tracker/dynamic/200706N.html

 

[lamont]

Well, here it comes now. Looks like Belize will get hit by a Cat3.

I98 has also spun off of Africa ... Hurricane Gabrielle?

 

[Scuba_Jenny]

Last nights news had it a Cat.1 hitting Belize, and it was still unnamed.

Water temps are warm...

 

[lamont]

wind shear looks favorable to development between jamaca and the yucatan, too...

 

[dvrliz1]

Don, et al...

I am updated info for Bonaire as we get it issued here on the island. I have started the thread below. For Bonaire info, check here...

http://www.scubaboard.com/showthread.php?t=200633&highlight=bonaire



Liz