Tropical Depression 2

[DandyDon]

One more time, Cozumel DOES NOT experience significant storm surge—didn't in Wilma and won't now.

Dave Dillehay

Yes, yes, I said Generally, but I guess that I should have said Cozumel excluded.

 

[AggressorBLUE]

I guess that you mean that the port captain has already announced that the port will be closed this coming Thursday, and maybe to all vessels of any size?

No one knows where it will go exactly and won't until Thursday, but if this monster doesn't change direction by tomorrow, I suspect that many boats will be unavailable as they begin pulling them out of the water, as ferries prepare to leave for Cancun on Wednesday, and cruise ships start dodging it as slow as they move. I suggest that all tourists on the island leave it tomorrow if possible and all inbound travelers abandon those plans.

View attachment 848928​

If Im reading the latest wind probability charts correctly though, it looks like its most likely to be tropical storm strength by the time it hits Cozumel:

So far airlines haven't scrubbed nor has the resort. My guess is they intend to ride it out for a day or two.

 

[DandyDon]

If Im reading the latest wind probability charts correctly though, it looks like its most likely to be tropical storm strength by the time it hits Cozumel:

Well, it may not hit the island, but I'd bet that it will yet hope for the best. Those maps don't give the real probabilities. These show...
S for Tropical Storm
H for hurricane force winds
M for the current Monster it is, or Major
so it is expected to be a less horrible hurricane, maybe.

 

[Dave Dillehay]

Well, it may not hit the island, but I'd bet that it will yet hope for the best. Those maps don't give the real probabilities. These show...
S for Tropical Storm
H for hurricane force winds
M for the current Monster it is, or Major
so it is expected to be a less horrible hurricane, maybe.

View attachment 849022

ALL OF THE SPAGHETTI models indicate a landfall of the eye well south of Cozumel. Those are the predicted paths of THE VARIOUS MODELS from the current position of Beryl. Most of our guests at the Villa Aldora are leaving tomorrow.

Dave Dillehay

 

[AggressorBLUE]

ALL OF THE SPAGETTI models indicate a landfall of the eye well south of Cozumel. Those are historic paths of previous hurricanes that passed by, from the current position of Beryl. Most of our guests at the Villa Aldora are leaving tomorrow.

Dave Dillehay

As in the guests are leaving early?

 

[johndiver999]

If I were there, I would not be surprised at all with 100 mph winds.

Hurricane Beryl Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM EDT Tue Jul 02 2024

INIT 02/2100Z 15.9N 70.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 16.7N 73.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 17.7N 77.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 18.5N 80.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 19.1N 83.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 19.7N 87.1W 75 KT 85 MPH

 

[DandyDon]

ALL OF THE SPAGETTI models indicate a landfall of the eye well south of Cozumel.

Many do; some don't. We really won't know until Thursday but tomorrow is the latest that I would leave...

 

[Dave Dillehay]

As in the guests are leaving early?

Not all but most guests of the Villa Aldora. If it misses Cozumel they have a great vacation. If not, they get to be there for an event that is in reality, difficult to experience. And I do not think that there is any physical risk in Concrete Bunkers like all Cozumel accommodations. The aftermath is another issue.

DAVE DILLEHAY

 

[Shawn C]

Many do; some don't. We really won't know until Thursday but tomorrow is the latest that I would leave...

View attachment 849050

Not all, correct. Most, however, show it south of Tulum with the greatest probability predicting landfall around Sian Ka'an. And as a Cat 1, which is a nothing burger.

 

[JustStig]

In your experience, how quickly do they fix the power and get things backup for a storm tropical storm/ cat 1? I’d assume the local gov would want to get things back up quickly to get that tax revenue rolling again.