Tropical Depression 2

[ggunn]

The one we really do not want to see again is "Wilma". It's been near 20 years since that one hit. But it is really important to keep in mind that the worst part of storms are actually quite small, and it is a big ocean.

Wilma was terrible. As you say, the most dangerous part of the storm is the eyewall, which is pretty small, but Wilma stalled over Cozumel and slowly dragged the southern section of the eyewall with its onshore winds up the west coast of the island. The devastation was still very apparent when my wife and I visited the island 3 months later. We were here after Gilbert as well, but Wilma was much worse.

 

[Manatee Diver]

As you say, the most dangerous part of the storm is the eyewall, which is pretty small,

I am going to disagree, the eye wall has the highest winds, but the most dangerous part of the storm is the storm surge. I have a home that the eye literally passed over. There was a lot of damage, about $50k worth. But the damage we got was a fraction of the people who were further south and got the storm surge. And that reached out something like 50miles IIRC.

 

[Dave Dillehay]

I am going to disagree, the eye wall has the highest winds, but the most dangerous part of the storm is the storm surge. I have a home that the eye literally passed over. There was a lot of damage, about $50k worth. But the damage we got was a fraction of the people who were further south and got the storm surge. And that reached out something like 50miles IIRC.

In discussing Hurricanes and Cozumel, even the strongest hurricanes have little surge. This is due to the fact that the water depth is so very deep close to shore. However 30 foot waves can, like with Wilma, slam into shoreside buildings causing extensive damage.

And even with it being the strongest hurricane in Atlantic Basin history...only 1 death in Cozumel.

Dave Dillehay

 

[AggressorBLUE]

Ugh. Wife and I also have a week booked coming up; fly in on Wed the 3rd. First time diving Cozumel, staying at Scuba club Cozumel which looks awesome.

Even if they dodge a direct broad side, looking like that whole section of the Caribbean won’t be a fun place to be scuba diving that week. Anyone have experience diving their house reef? I could see keeping the trip if folks think that’s dive-able enough to be worth dedicating at least half the trip for.

 

[gopbroek]

Why the Weather is Hyped, Dramatized, and Politicized - ATs Weather

Are you ready for the truth to be unveiled? Are you sure? There's no going back from this. You've heard of #fakenews, well, get ready for #fakeweather.

aarontuttleweather.com

And no I am not claiming this storm isn't happening but watch the hyped news over it. Might even be the first 'storm of the century', for the month. Hype increases ad revenue.

 

[Manatee Diver]

Why the Weather is Hyped, Dramatized, and Politicized - ATs Weather

Are you ready for the truth to be unveiled? Are you sure? There's no going back from this. You've heard of #fakenews, well, get ready for #fakeweather.

aarontuttleweather.com

And no I am not claiming this storm isn't happening but watch the hyped news over it. Might even be the first 'storm of the century', for the month. Hype increases ad revenue.

Stop visiting weather sites like that. You can get a majority of the information you need at one site.

National Hurricane Center

Other sites that have the models can give you an idea of the consensus, but NHC has a majority of what you need. And it is what you local station is basing their forecasts on.

 

[DandyDon]

Ugh. Wife and I also have a week booked coming up; fly in on Wed the 3rd. First time diving Cozumel, staying at Scuba club Cozumel which looks awesome.

Even if they dodge a direct broad side, looking like that whole section of the Caribbean won’t be a fun place to be scuba diving that week. Anyone have experience diving their house reef? I could see keeping the trip if folks think that’s dive-able enough to be worth dedicating at least half the trip for.

It may well veer off, no tellin'. I'd check with the airline, hotel, and dive op to ensure that they'll allow free changes on Tuesdays, and I'd make alternate plans to consider, then decide on Tuesday. I flew on with a Cat-4 headed that way once thinking surely it'll veer off, then left in a panic as it got closer so I was out the cost of the plane ticket and some other expenses. Don't bet against the weather man like I did. It did veer south after I left, but it was a close one.

 

[ggunn]

I am going to disagree, the eye wall has the highest winds, but the most dangerous part of the storm is the storm surge. I have a home that the eye literally passed over. There was a lot of damage, about $50k worth. But the damage we got was a fraction of the people who were further south and got the storm surge. And that reached out something like 50miles IIRC.

Apples and oranges. I should have not spoken so generally; as Dave said, the channel between Cozumel is deep and narrow, so storm surge on the west shore of Cozumel during Wilma was not as severe as it was, for example, on south Louisiana during Katrina. The most dangerous winds are in the eyewall of a hurricane.

 

[ggunn]

And no I am not claiming this storm isn't happening but watch the hyped news over it. Might even be the first 'storm of the century', for the month. Hype increases ad revenue.

Stating the worst case scenario is not necessarily hype; it is prudence. It is better to act as if the storm is coming and be wrong than it to act as though it isn’t and be wrong. Hope for the best, expect the worst.

 

[nodakdive]

Ugh. Wife and I also have a week booked coming up; fly in on Wed the 3rd. First time diving Cozumel, staying at Scuba club Cozumel which looks awesome.

Even if they dodge a direct broad side, looking like that whole section of the Caribbean won’t be a fun place to be scuba diving that week. Anyone have experience diving their house reef? I could see keeping the trip if folks think that’s dive-able enough to be worth dedicating at least half the trip for.

You may know this already, but if the port gets closed to diving, it's generally closed to all watersports, which includes shore diving. Usually the closings are due to Nortes and it could be different with other types of big weather. Others here will know more than I do.