Tropical Depression 2

[Dave Dillehay]

First off, it is not headed directly to Cozumel. The Yucatan is only in the cone of uncertainty while it is still way out in the Atlantic. Lots of time to change trajectory and frequently we see a turn to the north over Cuba.

Dave Dillehay

 

[DandyDon]

Hurricane Isaac devastated Galveston in 1900.

That's the first time I've known of anyone to try to apply a personal name to the 1900 Galveston hurricane,[1] also known as the Great Galveston hurricane and the Galveston Flood, and known regionally as the Great Storm of 1900 or the 1900 Storm.
Isaac Monroe Cline (October 13, 1861 – August 3, 1955) was the chief meteorologist at the Galveston, Texas, office of the U.S. Weather Bureau, now known as the National Weather Service, from 1889 to 1901. In that role, he became a central figure in the devastating Galveston hurricane 1900.

In 1891, he wrote an article in the Galveston Daily News in which he gave his official meteorological opinion that the thought of a hurricane ever doing any serious harm to Galveston was "a crazy idea". Many residents had called for a seawall to protect the city, but Cline's statement helped to prevent its construction.[2] He did change his mind as the storm approached.

 

[ggunn]

First off, it is not headed directly to Cozumel. The Yucatan is only in the cone of uncertainty while it is still way out in the Atlantic. Lots of time to change trajectory and frequently we see a turn to the north over Cuba.

Dave Dillehay

Extrapolating the existing 5 day forecast track line has it pretty much aimed right at Cozumel, but you are correct; many storms veer to the north as they gather strength traveling across the Caribbean

 

[gstrek]

That's the first time I've known of anyone to try to apply a personal name to the 1900 Galveston hurricane,[1] also known as the Great Galveston hurricane and the Galveston Flood, and known regionally as the Great Storm of 1900 or the 1900 Storm.
Isaac Monroe Cline (October 13, 1861 – August 3, 1955) was the chief meteorologist at the Galveston, Texas, office of the U.S. Weather Bureau, now known as the National Weather Service, from 1889 to 1901. In that role, he became a central figure in the devastating Galveston hurricane 1900.

In 1891, he wrote an article in the Galveston Daily News in which he gave his official meteorological opinion that the thought of a hurricane ever doing any serious harm to Galveston was "a crazy idea". Many residents had called for a seawall to protect the city, but Cline's statement helped to prevent its construction.[2] He did change his mind as the storm approached.

It is the title of the book due to the name of the meteorologist. It is a very informative book and tells the story of the 1900 hurricane along with a great deal of more scientific details. Erik Larson is an excellent author.

 

[DandyDon]

It is the title of the book due to the name of the meteorologist. It is a very informative book and tells the story of the 1900 hurricane along with a great deal of more scientific details. Erik Larson is an excellent author.

Yes, there is a famous book titled Isaac's Storm, not to be confused with Hurricane Isaac of 2012. Misnomers lead to confusion.

Dr. Cline was a leader in developing meteorology. He made mistakes, but that still happens today.

 

[Manatee Diver]

Extrapolating the existing 5 day forecast track line has it pretty much aimed right at Cozumel, but you are correct; many storms veer to the north as they gather strength traveling across the Caribbean

Right now the models have it hitting somewhere in the Yucatan, the forecast discussion says that it might gain some northern track depending on how tail end strength of the ridge that is keeping the track to the south. So it might skim over the top.

This far out all you can do is refresh the updates at 11am and 11pm.

 

[DandyDon]

This far out all you can do is refresh the updates at 11am and 11pm.

​

 

[ggunn]

This far out all you can do is refresh the updates at 11am and 11pm.

It’s really all you can ever do, innit? That and get out of its way. Hurricanes suck and this year the season is off to a hot start.

 

[cozcharlie]

Please add +1 to the list of people recommending Isaac’s Storm. I haven’t read it years but I remember it as being quite good.

 

[Dave Dillehay]

Please add +1 to the list of people recommending Isaac’s Storm. I haven’t read it years but I remember it as being quite good.

The one we really do not want to see again is "Wilma". It's been near 20 years since that one hit. But it is really important to keep in mind that the worst part of storms are actually quite small, and it is a big ocean.

For instance in the early teens a hurricane, whose name I can't recall, whose eye touched the southenr tip of Cozumel and did nothing to the downtown, yet left all the trees at Punta Sur looking like Chicago in the wintertime. Also in the early 2000s a hurricane named Mitch cruised all around the Western Caribbean, yet did not hit Cozumel at all…indeed it crossed Belize into the Pacific, then came roaring back into the Gulf just north of us.

Dave Dillehay