DandyDon:
...If you were going to select a Pony for possible bailouts, which would you get?
In short, what the "right size" will be will depend on a couple of factors - - your SAC, your dive environment, max depth and if this is a "for yourself only" type of contingency planning item or not (eg, is it for you only, or you + buddy?).
As such, for ideal Caribbean-type easy solo (or quasi) warmwater rec diving to the ~100fsw range, for an experienced diver (good SAC), a 13ft^3 will generally be "enough". A 19 would be better, but the travel logistics of airlines now saying 55lbs max per checked bag starts to rear its ugly head on the question of what other piece of dive equipment you're going to have leave behind in this trade-off in your real-world weight budget.
For coldwater diving, your ability to respond to a problem and make a quick, direct ascent with minimal bouyancy change management (due to thermal protection differences)...are reduced, plus your typical SAC is going to be higher, so you're going to need a bigger contingency supply even when diving to the same depths. A 30 or 40 is the rule of thumb here.
Philisophical aside: yes, I know that a 30 or 40 is getting close to the "wear doubles" arguement. But:
1) the local diveboat rules in some areas (such as here in NJ) say that you're going to carry some sort of redundant air supply - - if they're not going to wear doubles, would you rather have them carry a 30 pony, or a 2.7 Spare Air?
2) The unfortunate reality is that doubles weigh a lot and are a very common cause of "dive career ending" back injuries.
Diving a single w/pony merely trades-off some bottom time (a short-term gratification) versus being able to dive for more years (a long-term gratification). YMMV, but I intend to dive for another couple of decades, and IMO, doubles are an avoidable health risk: I already had one back injury in 1993, and I don't want another one, as it carries the finite risk of bringing my rec diving hobby to an end.
Hope this helps,
-hh