Future of Helium price?

[hilljo88]

Good summary on Helium supply and pricing:
Helium is in short supply, hitting balloons and scientific research

Biggest consumer of helium: party balloons.
Most important uses: MRI and semi-conductor manufacturing

Supply is mainly from Qatar, Texas and Wyoming
Saudi led boycott of Qatar led to 30% supply drop last year and 135% price increase.
Structural changes underway with US government exiting the market as a supplier.

Open question as to when/whether Qatar supply re-enters the market and do other sources increase.

 

[rjack321]

Sorry you lost me. What is silly? Doing 60m dives on open circuit and paying for the rising helium?

What @1atm said.

No, I believe he says it’s silly that GUE lowered the entry requirements for the CCR course from previously Tech2 to Tech1, and instead split the CCR class in two. Not sure if it’s a big issue as before and after it’s three course to get to CCR deep (T1+T2+CCR-old vs T1+CCR1+CCR2). New version gives you more time on the machine before you go deep, old version gives you more multi bottle skills. But let me qualify that I’m only T1/C2 so it’s only an unqualified onlookers opinion.

GUE now allows T1 grads an entry into CCR when they are only (in theory) certified for 30mins deco and 1 deco gas. I would make the minimum prerequisite a ~60m course which GUE offers as a 2 deco gas 18/45 OC course. Other agencies have a similar OC progression, and many divers are happy maxing out at the ~200ft/ 60m no bottom stage level so its a natural threshold for OC diving. And gives you legit reason to transition to CCR. If a ~50 x 21/35 and 18/45 dives to get to this level of OC proficiency is breaking your piggie bank, a $$$ CCR is not a reasonable goal either.

 

[PfcAJ]

What @1atm said.



GUE now allows T1 grads an entry into CCR when they are only (in theory) certified for 30mins deco and 1 deco gas. I would make the minimum prerequisite a ~60m course which GUE offers as a 2 deco gas 18/45 OC course. Other agencies have a similar OC progression, and many divers are happy maxing out at the ~200ft/ 60m no bottom stage level so its a natural threshold for OC diving. And gives you legit reason to transition to CCR. If a ~50 x 21/35 and 18/45 dives to get to this level of OC proficiency is breaking your piggie bank, a $$$ CCR is not a reasonable goal either.

Bingo.

Status-post bailing out from a rebreather is a bad time to realize that you don't have the skills, proficiency, and comfort to manage a deep open circuit dive.

 

[CheckedBubbles]

GUE now allows T1 grads an entry into CCR when they are only (in theory) certified for 30mins deco and 1 deco gas. I would make the minimum prerequisite a ~60m course which GUE offers as a 2 deco gas 18/45 OC course. Other agencies have a similar OC progression, and many divers are happy maxing out at the ~200ft/ 60m no bottom stage level so its a natural threshold for OC diving. And gives you legit reason to transition to CCR. If a ~50 x 21/35 and 18/45 dives to get to this level of OC proficiency is breaking your piggie bank, a $$$ CCR is not a reasonable goal either.

I'm a new T1 diver, so I've been looking into this closely. I agree that a Tech 60 prereq would make sense (especially since most of the 'T2' dives folks around here do are within Tech 60 limits) but it seems like T60 is hardly being taught anymore. My local GUE instructor also said that GUE doesn't want to make any more T60 instructors. So what do? Suck it up and take T2? Do something like a TDI Trimix course?

 

[rjack321]

I'm a new T1 diver, so I've been looking into this closely. I agree that a Tech 60 prereq would make sense (especially since most of the 'T2' dives folks around here do are within Tech 60 limits) but it seems like T60 is hardly being taught anymore. My local GUE instructor also said that GUE doesn't want to make any more T60 instructors. So what do? Suck it up and take T2? Do something like a TDI Trimix course?

I had no idea GUE was discouraging the 60m class. I thought it was a smart market play to bridge the gap between 1 bottle and 3 bottle diving. Certainly way smarter than rec3 which I think is just a ridiculous class... but I digress.

You could go with another agency for a 60m type cert, build a few dive's (25-50?) worth of 2 deco gas, 55-65m experience, then return to GUE for CCR1 (or another agency). In many GUE communities you'd be completely ostracized for that so proceed at your own peril lol.

Personally I had only a handful of >70m dives on OC before I went to CCR. It wasn't so much the expense, they are just hard to schedule and be worthwhile around here. They are still annoying and an expensive locally, but I do 70m+ CCR dives on trips more than I ever did on OC.

 

[CAPTAIN SINBAD]

What @1atm said.
If a ~50 x 21/35 and 18/45 dives to get to this level of OC proficiency is breaking your piggie bank, a $$$ CCR is not a reasonable goal either.

It may not look that bad today but If prices hit 2.50 to 4.00 then there will be a lot of people with broken piggy banks. Mainstream agencies would not be that badly effected. I can put up with no helium down to 130 so the cost of that dive for me will still be peanuts. If I was diving it in standard gases then it may not be fun. Someone who is committed to diving these depth on helium may find themselves stuck within a system that gets expensive to dive as prices shoot up.

 

[rjack321]

It may not look that bad today but If prices hit 2.50 to 4.00 then there will be a lot of people with broken piggy banks. Mainstream agencies would not be that badly effected. I can put up with no helium down to 130 so the cost of that dive for me will still be peanuts. If I was diving it in standard gases then it may not be fun. Someone who is committed to diving these depth on helium may find themselves stuck within a system that gets expensive to dive as prices shoot up.

Dive however you want. Helium has already doubled or tripled in price in the last 12-15 years as the US strategic reserve has dwindled. The world has not ended like people just like you predicted 8-9 years ago when the price jumps started to get noticed.

I know several of my GUE friends had $3000 OC usd gas bills from trips to Truk in the past few years (more than any other cost). For the foreseeable future I believe they will either pay those OC prices (or more), switch to a CCR ($12-13K in equipment and course fees) a bit earlier as evidenced by the CCR1 course release, or skip the dive.

 

[1atm]

I'm a new T1 diver, so I've been looking into this closely. I agree that a Tech 60 prereq would make sense (especially since most of the 'T2' dives folks around here do are within Tech 60 limits) but it seems like T60 is hardly being taught anymore. My local GUE instructor also said that GUE doesn't want to make any more T60 instructors. So what do? Suck it up and take T2? Do something like a TDI Trimix course?

I dont think Tech60 makes sense, not the way it is today. It's almost the same duration and cost as T2 (4 days vs 6 days), so you might as well just take T2. I dont know anyone who has, or is planning to take Tech60, everyone just goes for T2.

Similar thing for me ... I currently don't see any need or appeal to go deeper than 60m, but I can see the appeal coming to have a bit more bottom time in the 45-55-60m range. With C2+T1 I feel like I'm already close to having the tools. Maybe not quite, but close (C2 teaches 'bottom stage' plus deco stage). So based on that, Tech60 doesnt make much sense for me. If/when I hit that limit, I'll likely go for T2 rather than Tech60.

Re instructors, not sure if there is such a thing as a pure Tech60 instructor. I always thought you needed to be a T2 instructor anyways in order to teach it. The whole thing used to make more sense when it was a 2 day affair if I recall correctly.

I know several of my GUE friends had $3000 OC usd gas bills from trips to Truk in the past few years (more than any other cost). For the foreseeable future I believe they will either pay those OC prices (or more), switch to a CCR ($12-13K in equipment and course fees) a bit earlier as evidenced by the CCR1 course release, or skip the dive.

I might change my mind when I get there, but for the moment I feel I can do quite a few T1/T1+ dives until I get to the 10k+ EUR / 12k+ USD for the JJ+course, not to forget the 600+ EUR per year in maintenance (sensors and all), sofnolime and whatnot ... And given that places like Mexican caves exist, dont forget that you can have tons of fun without going super deep all the time ;-)

 

[Jeremy Williams]

What @1atm said.



GUE now allows T1 grads an entry into CCR when they are only (in theory) certified for 30mins deco and 1 deco gas. I would make the minimum prerequisite a ~60m course which GUE offers as a 2 deco gas 18/45 OC course. Other agencies have a similar OC progression, and many divers are happy maxing out at the ~200ft/ 60m no bottom stage level so its a natural threshold for OC diving. And gives you legit reason to transition to CCR. If a ~50 x 21/35 and 18/45 dives to get to this level of OC proficiency is breaking your piggie bank, a $$$ CCR is not a reasonable goal either.

I’m not training with GUE for unrelated reasons, but...

I think that’s the wrong direction. Why doesn’t GUE teach fundies in CCR? If it’s a good class in doubles why isn’t it a better class in CCR? Why not do T1 in CCR? The thesis of this thread, stated or not, is... how long will will there be mainstream OC tech diving?

And if you think your perfectly dialed in trim with LP108s (or whatever) is going to be clutch on that JJ... I’m skeptical. And I think that’s even a kind assessment.

 

[rjack321]

I might change my mind when I get there, but for the moment I feel I can do quite a few T1/T1+ dives until I get to the 10k+ EUR / 12k+ USD for the JJ+course, not to forget the 600+ EUR per year in maintenance (sensors and all), sofnolime and whatnot ... And given that places like Mexican caves exist, dont forget that you can have tons of fun without going super deep all the time ;-)

This is partly what I meant by "skip the dive", you end up finding another site or destination that uses cheaper mixes or overall costs less (with travel & lodging etc). There ends up being fewer qualified trimix divers for projects unfortunately. I'm including the fancy pants CCR divers who have never done any substantive OC trimix diving. It can be hard enough already to find people with the disposal income, vacation time, family flexibility, equipment, skills, experience, and desire for some projects. Usually the colder the water, the tougher it is to wrangle up the right team. The cost of helium is pretty much an insignificant element of that challenge.