Dangerous Hurricane Dean

[rjsimp]

Well Marvel, as one who just returned, I can tell you my train of thought.

When I got on a plane a 6:00am Thursday, I thought the odds what is planned now looked unlikely. Its rare that a storm continues in a straight line like it is, nor would we know how it would strengthen between now and then.

We dove Friday. By the time we got back Friday night and dealt with a diver in Deco, we then realized at 10:00pm that we were going to have a make a call. And decided to wait until 6:30am the next morning to see where we were. At that point if nothing had changed, it was time to make plans to evacuate. And as such, it hadn't. I tried to get a flight out on Sunday as we did have dives for Saturday. That wasn't an option, so I booked the next flight I could get, which was Saturday afternoon with an overnight layover.

Its easy to armchair QB from here, but you have to by what information you are getting at the time. Our dive op still was sending boats out on Saturday. Others were taking their boats out of the water. If I could have had a flight out today, I would have stayed and dove yesterday morning. The boat went out whether I was on it or not. The forecast that was passed out to us at that point was as a watch with a forecast that it was slowing down and wouldn't hit until Tuesday.

It may have been easy here to see that Dean was definitely going to hit Cozumel three days ago, but from the ground where I was, I didn't think it was that obvious.

I'm sorry.. but I WAS THERE (got there on Saturday before you) and by Thursday it was quite obvious to me that we needed to get out. Not Friday morning.. Thursday it was obvious. If we had a flight on Sunday would I have taken it instead of a new flight on Saturday? Probably, but I wouldn't have tried to dive. The only dive operators that were taking divers out were because the divers were being insistant and quite ugly about things.

I was there when dive ops were on the phone with people calling and pissed they wouldn't get to go out. In case you didn't see it, it isn't easy to move boats around on the island (streets are small) and it takes time to get them out of the water and inland. I am sure the dive ops that DID go out on Saturday would have much preferred to not be out there.

Very few if any dive ops went out Saturday. In fact there was a group of 4 divers trying to go out on Saturday calling around all the dive shops. Every shop we went to to say good bye had been called and told no diving and these divers were not happy from the sounds of it.. I think Christi referred to the same group probably in a post here.

Saturday was the right day to leave on.. Sunday was cutting it close and Monday (when our flight was originally scheduled to leave) was in the NO WAY zone. It may turn out that Monday is still okay to fly out.. But I'm not there to take that risk and I wouldn't do it any different.

 

[parrotheaddiver]

OK, now here is another question - IF Dean ends up hitting ~100 miles south of Cozumel and the worst for Cozumel is 'Tropical Storm like' winds - what advice do you have for those of us that have reservations made for this week and next? Should they still be cancelled, delayed, or will things be 'back to normal' by Thursday/Friday? Any idea of what to expect? I started filing an insurance claim for the flight, but I haven't officially cancelled it yet. I don't want to go there and be the 'annoying tourist' who had to be there, but if the welcome is open again and the diving is good, I'll definately go. Thoughts?

That is a tough call.....I would say that this storm would probably be out of the area by late Tues if nothing else changes at this point....and IF there were no damages or power outages....the shops will still need to get their boats back in the water etc.....I think the end of this week would be the very earliest.....maybe Christi will be on today and give you a better answer....but as Rick says you have to be flexible....

 

[Hawkeye Mark]

I'm not too clear why anyone would worry about getting dives in in the middle of an impending hurricane. A few years after I moved to Houston, I sat in my house during Hurricane Alicia in 1983. That was scary. I was probably too ignorant of hurricanes at the time to know better.

Theres always another day to dive. I know vacation time is precious. But thats the risk we take going to the hurricane belt during hurricane season. Ive taken that risk a few times. Never got burnt.

 

[CrazyMike]

That is a tough call.....I would say that this storm would probably be out of the area by late Monday if nothing else changes at this point....and IF there were no damages or power outages....the shops will still need to get their boats back in the water etc.....I think the end of this week would be the very earliest.....maybe Christi will be on today and give you a better answer....but as Rick says you have to be flexible....

Thanks - its a bit complicated for us since we're both military and have additional complexities of getting leave reapproved and/or dates changed as well as possibly rearranging the travel reservations (we're supposed to leave Thursday). Just trying to get as much info as possible to make some decisions as soon as we can... I know how these things go to some extent. I too, have an attic full of plywood for boarding up my windows. I wasn't living here when Ivan rolled into town, but I did get evacuated for Dennis in '05. Everything gets muddled up with these big unpredictable storms...

 

[Marvel]

Well Marvel, as one who just returned, I can tell you my train of thought.

When I got on a plane a 6:00am Thursday, I thought the odds what is planned now looked unlikely. Its rare that a storm continues in a straight line like it is, nor would we know how it would strengthen between now and then.

We dove Friday. By the time we got back Friday night and dealt with a diver in Deco, we then realized at 10:00pm that we were going to have a make a call. And decided to wait until 6:30am the next morning to see where we were. At that point if nothing had changed, it was time to make plans to evacuate. And as such, it hadn't. I tried to get a flight out on Sunday as we did have dives for Saturday. That wasn't an option, so I booked the next flight I could get, which was Saturday afternoon with an overnight layover.

Its easy to armchair QB from here, but you have to by what information you are getting at the time. Our dive op still was sending boats out on Saturday. Others were taking their boats out of the water. If I could have had a flight out today, I would have stayed and dove yesterday morning. The boat went out whether I was on it or not. The forecast that was passed out to us at that point was as a watch with a forecast that it was slowing down and wouldn't hit until Tuesday.

It may have been easy here to see that Dean was definitely going to hit Cozumel three days ago, but from the ground where I was, I didn't think it was that obvious.

I'm sorry if I came across as an armchair quarterback to you. I see that you are back home in Colorado. Did you happen to notice where I live, by chance? I've had a tad bit of experience with hurricanes- both those that hit & those that veered, even before I moved to Florida. Safe & effective hurricane preparation takes days to accomplish & is not something that should be postponed to the last minute. Thank goodness that Dean has veered to the south & is likely to miss Cozumel. As Rick pointed out, however, based on the current projections they are still going to experience Cat 1 hurricane conditions. Even that can be potentially devastating. Remember Hurricane Ivan? It hit the panhandle of FL/AL in 2004 & traveled far up the coast to cause significant damage to Richmond, Va- even as a tropical depression. The panhandle is still quietly recovering from that storm. You just never know...

Sept. 17, 2004, Hurricane Ivan: Made landfall near the Florida/Alabama border as a Category 3 hurricane. It weakened to a tropical depression and moved northeast, tracking along the Appalachian Mountains through western Virginia, then northeast and offshore the mid-Atlantic coast. A total of 40 tornadoes were produced in Virginia, most in central and northern Virginia. This was a record single day outbreak for Virginia, and exceeded the previous annual tornado record of 31. Most of these tornadoes were F0 or F1 in intensity, although 10 F2 tornadoes and one F3 tornado touched down in south central, west central and northern Virginia

Source

 

[CozumelAntonio]

As of this morning it looks like Cozumel will be spared a direct hit, all models are showing a projected path well south of Cozumel and it would have to turn hard north to hit us, with a front moving down this is highly improbable. Of course we're not out of the woods yet, but the forecast is very encouraging for Cozumel. If indeed all we get is tropical storm winds and rain, it is possible that by Thursday Cozumel operators could be back in the water and that as of Friday normal operations resume.

Prayers go out to everyone in the path of Dean.

 

[Christi]

she dont take cruiseship passengers, the schedule dont work for her :shrug:

Simply untrue...and my cruise ship diver policy is clearly stated on my website under the FAQ's,

 

[Christi]

OK, now here is another question - IF Dean ends up hitting ~100 miles south of Cozumel and the worst for Cozumel is 'Tropical Storm like' winds - what advice do you have for those of us that have reservations made for this week and next? Should they still be cancelled, delayed, or will things be 'back to normal' by Thursday/Friday? Any idea of what to expect? I started filing an insurance claim for the flight, but I haven't officially cancelled it yet. I don't want to go there and be the 'annoying tourist' who had to be there, but if the welcome is open again and the diving is good, I'll definately go. Thoughts?

It's really still too early to tell. We'll know alot more after tomorrow when the storm makes landfall in Mexico. At minimum, it's going to take us all a couple of days to get all the boats back in the water ad put our shops and homes back together.

If this is nothing more than a really bad thunderstorm...we could be back in the water as early as Thursday or Friday....but as I said, we simply can't predict that yet. Check your dive ops website...most have updates on what their customers should do.

 

[parrotheaddiver]

looks like a beautiful morning in Cozumel....http://www.cozumelinsider.com/Webcam

 

[Praxus]

Glad Coz will probably be spared a direct hit.

Ambergris Caye looks like it will get pretty hammered though.