Dangerous Hurricane Dean

[Rick Murchison]

That brings to mind, if any of you haven't yet found www.crownweather.com/tropical.html , they have the most comprehensive and complete compendium of tropical weather information I've found out there.
Rick

 

[diversteve]

There's also a set of tracking tools, including some simulations at www.weatherunderground.com. They have all the NOAA models as well as several others.

Unfortunately according to their Flash projection, they're showing Dean as a Cat 4-5 when it passes over the Yucatan south of Cozumel. One thing that may not be readily obvious is that the windspeeds generated in the outer bands do as much if not more damage than the eye.

Has anyone seen any reports of big storm surge being generated? I know they're doing a complete evacuation of Little Cayman as a precaution.

 

[D_B]

 

[Christi]

Dave of Aldora has a great update on his website about the hurricane...I echo his statements!
http://www.aldora.com/dean.htm

I also have a blog that will be updated as long as we have internet connections. It is under the "Trips" link on my website...as it was intended to be where I can post my trip reports to share with everyone. For now, it will be Dean updates (but I haven't updated it today...I'll do that tonight when the work around here is done Back to work!
http://www.bluextseadiving.com/trips/

 

[Webad]

My friends in Belize who live in the cayes are boarded up and ready to evacuate when they "get the word".....

 

[cowboyneal]

I wonder if Aldora Divers will be the only dive operation left on Cozumel after Dean like it was after Wilma? Anyway, glad its "forecast south" now, but there isn't a lot of margin for error and it's not like it's a little blue dot, it is hundreds of miles wide, so one quick wobble back to the N and there will be some definite hell to pay, the level of which and extent of which will remain undetermined and indeterminable until it hits (if it does)...also, the models are just models, and wind speeds, storm surge and surf damage all have their own ideas what to do...take it from someone that has been through a couple of these things directly, run, don't walk, away to the extent you are able, and unless you have some business to be in Cozumel (like a business there) you have no business being there, so get out...

 

[ggunn]

great visual!!

useful..concise, great!

It's from this site:

http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html

 

[ggunn]

One thing that may not be readily obvious is that the windspeeds generated in the outer bands do as much if not more damage than the eye.

Well, of course the eye itself is calm, but the strongest winds in a hurricane are in the eyewall, typically on the north to northeast edge of the eye. What some folks don't realize is that when a huge category 5 storm hits the coast, the strip of coastline that gets really blasted is very small compared to the overall size of the storm. Wilma's hit on Cozumel was an exception to this because the storm stalled out and slowly dragged the southern eyewall up most of the western side of the island.

 

[AXL72]

ok, intersting point. Most buildings located near the coast in the US are designed for 110 mile per hour winds.

If the outer bands are only blowing at 73 miles per hour and gusting at 98, how can they do as much damage as the eye, with windspeds of 145 and gusts to 173?

 

[diversteve]

I don't know for certain, I think it's because of the longer interval, i.e. the eyewall hits harder over a relatively small footprint but the outer bands are bigger and sustain their impact for a longer interval as they pass over any given point potentially causing more damage. Even though the top speeds are lower.

It's something I saw during an analysis of Katrina talking about the damage that occured along the shore of Lake Pontchatrain. Maybe it's not correct, although it was a scientist or structural engineer speaking, not Anderson Cooper...