Most of the really devastating damage from a major hurricane is from the storm surge rather than the wind. Water doesn't have to be moving very fast to flatten a building once it gets above the foundation by a few feet. Buildings built like piers on pilings fare better, but those come down too when a house hits the pilings.
Lucky for COZ and the Yucatan, the coast gets deep in a hurry and there's very little in the way of long narrowing bays. This topography means a very small surge as surges go, even in a large storm - and COZ has endured some humdingers, like Gilbert in '88.
Where you have a long gently sloping bottom you can get a huge surge over a wide area that'll cause devastation disproportianate to the winds, especially if you have a very wide storm - like Katrina and the Mississippi/Alabama coast...
Another bad topography is like Corpus, with a large shallow bay behind a barrier Island that's not very high. Models show that only a five foot surge on the gulf at Mustang Island can give a 20 foot surge at downtown Corpus. Let's hope we never see the proof. The Galveston storm was the worst natural disaster ever in the United States in terms of lost lives; it was the 18 - 20 foot surge that knocked all the buildings down and drowned everybody.
Bottom line... The highest winds aren't necessarily the place of the greatest damage, but for places like COZ, if they can escape the really big winds (and the damned thing doesn't stall and beat 'em to death for days like Wilma did) they shouldn't have too much else to worry about.
So the forecast is hopeful right now, but a little wobble could take it from hopeful to horrible.
Rick
Lucky for COZ and the Yucatan, the coast gets deep in a hurry and there's very little in the way of long narrowing bays. This topography means a very small surge as surges go, even in a large storm - and COZ has endured some humdingers, like Gilbert in '88.
Where you have a long gently sloping bottom you can get a huge surge over a wide area that'll cause devastation disproportianate to the winds, especially if you have a very wide storm - like Katrina and the Mississippi/Alabama coast...
Another bad topography is like Corpus, with a large shallow bay behind a barrier Island that's not very high. Models show that only a five foot surge on the gulf at Mustang Island can give a 20 foot surge at downtown Corpus. Let's hope we never see the proof. The Galveston storm was the worst natural disaster ever in the United States in terms of lost lives; it was the 18 - 20 foot surge that knocked all the buildings down and drowned everybody.
Bottom line... The highest winds aren't necessarily the place of the greatest damage, but for places like COZ, if they can escape the really big winds (and the damned thing doesn't stall and beat 'em to death for days like Wilma did) they shouldn't have too much else to worry about.
So the forecast is hopeful right now, but a little wobble could take it from hopeful to horrible.
Rick
