Dangerous Hurricane Dean

[Rick Murchison]

I guess you saw something on TV or in person different than I did..

I don't watch much TV, but what I did see was concentrated on just what you saw - a sideshow compared to the real devastation on the Mississippi and Alabama coasts, where the folks were just doing boring things like working their collective tails off instead of putting on a show for the media. Here in Montgomery is where Red Cross recovery headquarters was set up, with thousands of volunteers coming through from all over the country - even Alaska! - to get assignments and head on down to help.... thousands and thousands of volunteers, whose only whine was that they couldn't get there quicker or do more to help quicker. Thousands and thousands of volunteers, and not a single news story or camera to broadcast that to the nation. American goodness just isn't part of their agenda.
If you think America is reflected in what you see on TV you've been sucked in.
America is kind and generous and hard working and good. With warts, no doubt, but good. All you'll ever see on TV is just the warts.
Rick

 

[susan6868]

A dozen showers dropped off at one center and none at another. That's the idea.

Okay, it's off topic, but how does one "drop off a dozen showers?"

I had to ask, it would have bugged me the whole day.:focus:

 

[Rick Murchison]

Latest forecast track is better by a bit... looks like the track is a little further south and the worst Jamaica may see will be Cat 3 - still dangerous but a heck of a lot better than the Cat 5 forecast yesterday.
And Coz may escape with Cat 1 or less.... but the coast south of Coz will still take a major hit; hope folks are headed inland to the extent possible.
Prayer lamp remains lit, bright & steady.
Rick

 

[Rick Murchison]

Okay, it's off topic, but how does one "drop off a dozen showers?"

I had to ask, it would have bugged me the whole day.:focus:

Showers as in self contained units, either delivered to the wrong place by the deliverer, or sent to the wrong place by the shipper, or requested to the wrong place by the person making the request. In any major relief effort there are inefficiencies and poorly allocated assets. For things to end up where they should, the request has to be accurate, interpreted accurately, assigned accurately and delivered accurately. That's why we study the effort and all the screw-ups to see how to do better next time. Jackie's point is a good one, that local agencies are much less likely to screw up in a big way than great big agencies, be they government or not. In the Katrina relief errort, the Red Cross (where I did my volunteering) worked hard to take input from on-scene folks & coordinate relief assets in a sane and efficient way - but there were still cases where teams would get where they were sent only to find out the information was flawed. And so we learn better ways to use technology to get the right information to the right place as quickly as we can.
Anybody who says they've never screwed up in a relief effort, or who demands or expects perfection in relief efforts is just admitting to inexperience in relief efforts.
Rick

 

[Christi]

Latest forecast track is better by a bit... looks like the track is a little further south and the worst Jamaica may see will be Cat 3 - still dangerous but a heck of a lot better than the Cat 5 forecast yesterday.
And Coz may escape with Cat 1 or less.... but the coast south of Coz will still take a major hit; hope folks are headed inland to the extent possible.
Prayer lamp remains lit, bright & steady.
Rick

This is good news, but where are you getting the idea that anyone is expecting it to be less than a category 4? I can't find that, but sure would love to read that with my own eyes for peace of mind! According to what I am seeing, the storm is currently a Cat 4 approaching Jamaica and is expected to intensify back up to a five over the warmer waters of the NW Caribbean before hitting the Yucatan.

I did see that the track is shifted just to our south, which is definitely better than a direct hit...but it's still too close for comfort.

Here's from the HNC site discussion, 11:00am update:

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

 

[dwwest101]

Here is a link to FSU where you can run the latest computer models. You have to play with them a bit. There are 7 different model and they are animated.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

 

[AXL72]

whew...new forecast puts dean way to the west of Houston and Galveston.

for now at least.

hopefully it follows the prdictions.

 

[Rick Murchison]

This is good news, but where are you getting the idea that anyone is expecting it to be less than a category 4?

What we have here is a failure to communicate
The storm is still expected to be a Cat 4 when it passes COZ, but it's expected to pass far enough south that you'll be just outside the Cat 1 wind band; winds 50 - 64 KTS at COZ. Let's pray it's even further south....

 

[AXL72]

great visual!!

useful..concise, great!

 

[Christi]

That's what I thought you ma have meant Still good news because other sites showing it as a Cat 5 when it makes landfall on the Yucatan...somewhere between here and Chetumal.

According to another wind swath I was looking at, we could be getting tropical storm force winds as early as this evening.