Dangerous Hurricane Dean

[CrazyMike]

The AF has cancelled my leave and it looks like the insurance will only cover our airline tickets, but not our accomodations. Our accommodations (who won't be named here) won't issue any refund or even allow us to reschedule (without paying again). Is that a typical policy in cases like this? I guess I should have read the fine print in the insurance package I got. Mixed feelings since I'm out some money, but the businesses of Cozumel may be out much more... Frustrating for everyone.

 

[Praxus]

Latest is for a category 5 monster passing through or close to Cozumel and Cancun!

OK lets not mince words here. If you are in northern yucatan, make plans to get out. Be ready to move on a moments notice.

Winds are forecast OVER 160 mph for Yucatan landfall. You don't want to try and ride out a category five. Think of a tornado thats 50 miles wide. Then add a 20 foot storm surge.

If you stay in those areas past sunday and the forecast continues to point Dean at you, then you are taking a very serious risk with your life.

 

[rjsimp]

Here's the latest as of 11:00 PM ET which is ahead of the computer models shown on Weather Underground.

Looks like it is intensifying and slowing a bit.. but still on a track for Cozumel. Now projected to be a CAT 5 when it hits Grand Cayman and Cozumel

 

[Miami_Diver]

[. Our accommodations (who won't be named here) won't issue any refund or even allow us to reschedule (without paying again).

why dont you name it ? I would.
so we can learn who they are and keep them in mind for future bookins.

 

[BKP]

...Winds are forecast OVER 160 mph for Yucatan landfall. Do you REALLY think a shelter will stand up to that? You don't ride out a category five. Think F5 tornado thats 50 miles wide. Then add a 30 foot storm surge.

No, don't think F5 tornado (which is 216 mph winds to 318).
160 mph winds are certainly not a summer breeze, however, a Category 5 hurricane and F5 tornado wind speeds are not equivalent. Additionally, there's no reason to believe a 30 foot storm surge is imminent (which is twice a typical Category 5 surge). Additionally, there's no reason to believe it will definitely intensify into a Cat 5, and then hit Coz.

Hurricanes weaken as easily as they strengthen. They change course unexpectedly. The only constant about hurricanes is their lack of one.

Prepare for a lousy day, but don't assume the worst...

 

[DandyDon]

I'm working on a survival plan here on Coz - my first hurrican....

 

[daniel f aleman]

Get off the island Don, go inland.

 

[scubawife]

Working on a survival plan here on Coz - my first hurrican....

If you did not choose to get a flight out this weekend then you may want to consider the ferry across to the mainland and head in to Valladolid. But make arrangements for accommodations first. I know that lots of people currently in Akumal, Aventuras and Tulum are making plans to head that way as they've already been notified by their condo and villa managers that they will need to vacate by Sunday morning.

Better yet, spend your time seeing if you can get a flight out of Coz or even Cancun. That would be your best plan. If this does end up being a significant H then the last thing they'll need afterwards are tourists to worry about and take care of.

 

[wmspdi]

From Weather Underground:

 

[Kaiser442]

Yeah - don't even think about riding out the storm in Cozumel until you've exhausted all options to get away.

Experiencing a Cat 1 might be kind of interesting... being anywhere near a Cat 5 is firmly in "terrifying" territory.