Dangerous Hurricane Dean

[Christi]

I'm working on a survival plan here on Coz - my first hurrican....

Don, don't try to be a Cowboy. You have absolutely no reason to be here...riding this out won't warrant "bragging rights." YOU have a choice, get out of here. Trust me, this is NOT going to be fun!

 

[UnderSeaBumbleBee]

http://www.hurricanetrack.com/

Mark Sudduth does a pretty good job of reporting what is going on with these things on his site Hurricane Track. He has a lot of good info on there and video clips from past hurricanes. Frequently he has live cam in the path of the storm.

Here is his lastest post:

Dean is going to be a bad hurricane for several of the islands of the western and northwestern Caribbean. The latest report from the NHC indicates that Dean is nearing category five intensity with winds of 150 mph. The forecast still calls for Dean to reach this extreme level with some fluctuations related to internal changes of the core- and land interaction. People in Jamaica, the Cayamans and areas of the Yucatan should be preparing for a devastating hit from Dean. This is going to be a major set back if the track holds as forecast now. We all hope the outcome is not too bad for these people and wish for the best.

It is beginning to look like Dean could miss the United States with a direct hit. Most models show a track in to mainland Mexico, south of Brownsville and in fact, this scenario, in one form or another, has been seen for several days. As more and more models come in to agreement, we will get a better idea, but the odds are that Mexico will unfortunately bear the brunt of this hurricane. This is not to say that people in Texas should relax as the track error is certainly enough to warrant concern- you never let your guard down until something like a Dean is inland and weakening.

The rest of the tropics are fairly quiet for now but the models develop yet another storm in the deep tropics within the next few days. It is going to be a very busy peak to the hurricane season this time around. I will post another update later this afternoon.

 

[Tomeck]

Okay.. so I missed a 'T' .. it is Charlotte and it is in North Carolina.

No problem!

 

[94GTStang]

Best of luck guys and hope the storm turns soon! Keep us updated!

 

[DennisS]

Crown weather has lot of info. The one prediction I don't like is the one that shows gusts to 196, not good!

http://crownweather.com/tropical.html

 

[ggunn]

well I went 2times after wilma and there is certanly a BIG difference in the underwater soft corals and forget about the big barrel sponges theyre all gone. paradise reef is mostly gone under sand(compare to what it used to be). .If this gets a direct hit, the little coral recovery that has taken place will be gone..

Yes, we are painfully aware of Wilma's effect on Cozumel (I've been there three times since). My post was a tongue-in-cheek reference to the over-pessimistic post-Wilma threads in here.

Wilma's wasn't a simple hurricane passage, though. She stalled over the island and slowly dragged her southern eyewall with its devastating onshore winds up most of the western coastline. This made the damage a lot worse and more widespread than it otherwise would have been. Wilma was very much the "perfect storm" for Cozumel, much as Katrina was for New Orleans. A repetition of that type of hit from Dean is pretty unlikely.

I certainly am not making light of the impending storm, but there will be life after Dean irrespective of what path it takes. My thoughts and prayers are with all of you who are there, and to Don - it's time to get the heck outta Dodge, my man!

 

[rjsimp]

Yes, we are painfully aware of Wilma's effect on Cozumel (I've been there three times since). My post was a tongue-in-cheek reference to the over-pessimistic post-Wilma threads in here.

Wilma's wasn't a simple hurricane passage, though. She stalled over the island and slowly dragged her southern eyewall with its devastating onshore winds up most of the western coastline. This made the damage a lot worse and more widespread than it otherwise would have been. Wilma was very much the "perfect storm" for Cozumel, much as Katrina was for New Orleans. A repetition of that type of hit from Dean is pretty unlikely.

I certainly am not making light of the impending storm, but there will be life after Dean irrespective of what path it takes. My thoughts and prayers are with all of you who are there, and to Don - it's time to get the heck outta Dodge, my man!

Oh.. I don't know.. a CAT 5 (which Wilma wasn't when it hit) with wind gusts approaching 200 MPH can do a LOT of damage in a short period of time.. Now, as far as marine damage, who knows.. right now I am concerned about the island itself and the mainland..

 

[ggunn]

Oh.. I don't know.. a CAT 5 (which Wilma wasn't when it hit) with wind gusts approaching 200 MPH can do a LOT of damage in a short period of time.. Now, as far as marine damage, who knows.. right now I am concerned about the island itself and the mainland..

Of course it can, but the duration of the peak wind event for any one location in a typical storm passage is typically a couple of hours. There were hurrricane force winds due to Wilma on Cozumel for somewhere in the neighborhood of two and a half days.

Gilbert, I believe, was a bit stronger than Wilma when it hit in 1988, but its effect on the island and the surrounding waters was significantly less because it did not stop right on top of Cozumel.

Wilma and Gilbert were respectively the #1 and #2 strongest hurricanes ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin.

 

[Kaiser442]

If Don or anyone else trying to get off the island needs any stateside help (I dunno - help looking up flight availability, talking to airlines, purchasing a ticket, looking for a place to go to in central mexico, a place to stay if you wind up in our town - whatever) please ask and I (and I'm sure everyone else on SB) will gladly help.

two-one-four-three-one-seven-one-nine-one-two.
Glen

 

[DennisS]

I'm working on a survival plan here on Coz - my first hurrican....

It's after the hurricane that's a *****, lack of pure water, electricity, A/C and communications makes for some unpleasant living. Stock up on bottled water and non-perishable food. Get twice as much water as you think you'll need.