So, I think there's mulitple "markets" here and combining them tends to overgeneralize a bit. For example, tourism related diving isn't necessarily at the whim of the same market shifts as weekend lake/quarry divers, spearfishers, photographers/videographers, etc.That is the other part of the death knell...the cost of entry into this activity is way to high as is the cost to maintain being active in diving as an activity. I am not saying the cost is not commensurate with the costs instructors have to pay for insurance or the costs to run a dive shop, but those costs are out of pace with what folks are willing to spend.
The dive industry is an unsustainable model...one might not realize that by reading posts on ScubaBoard, but the voices here represent a scant minority of those out here. The only real thing the dive industry has going for it is that there historically and currently have been no recertification/continuing education requirements for continued participation, and one can arrive at a destination such as during a vacation and have an activity that they are readily available to participate in.
But outside of that, the model continues to spiral unsustainably. The margins for everyone that needs to profit are slim, and for the end user, the cost of renting and/or purchasing gear is high, with additional high maintenance costs for equipment that generally sees little use.
There has also been a marketplace shift where the current generation is not looking to make a long term investment in expensive gear with limited use, that they can't easily maintain, for an activity they only do a handful of times at best. The current market segment are not looking to invest. Their generational paradigm is about experiences...they have no problem paying for a discover scuba dive with their go-pro camera to bag the experience of having an extended stay underwater and posting the proof on social media....by and large, they are not looking for much more than that, and why would they want to when they can just rinse and repeat or just move on to entertain a different experience all together for much less than the cost of training and equipment (renting or owning).
Even if one tries to minimize the expense of participation, there are still obstacles and financial burdens one needs to contend with that most are just not willing to except those of us that are truly passionate. Take for instance the cost of owning a tank...unless one plans to dive locally, the cost of owning a tank is not worth it, and unless one is doing a plethora of diving year-round the same is true. In the US, annual visual inspections, plus periodic hydrostatic testing, coupled with the cost of a fill generally pushes the cost of owning a tank beyond being a reasonable expectation for most divers....and god forbid the tank fail one of those inspections/test or the local shop (which are few and far between for many of us) decides for whatever reason they no longer want to accept the risk of filling one's tank...that pushes the cost of ownership beyond what most would consider reasonable. The cost of owning and operating one's own compressor is beyond reasonable for all but the most passionate among us as well. Contrast that to the high cost renting a tank compared to the limited amount of time one will actually use it. For me, for instance, to rent a tank I have a 2-hour round trip drive to the nearest local dive shop...and I would have to make that drive twice to pick up and return the tank, I would have a set amount of time to hold on to the tank and have to coordinate using the tank during that period or pay extra to extend that period...and all for what, 30 to 60 minutes of use?
And then there is the rest of the gear that one either has to invest in and the required maintenance for it as well. Even if one accepts the burden or has the passion to maintain their own gear there are still obstacles and high costs that one has to navigate. Even if one can obtain service kits, the costs are fairly ridiculous, $20-$60 for service kits per stage for what amounts to pennies worth of o-rings and a few other bits like a plastic backup ring, and a rubber disc.
Again, I am not saying that costs are not commensurate with what it costs a dive shop to run a business but it adds to the very high barrier to commence and maintain participation in this activity. The fact that the internet has wreaked havoc on the ability for a brick and mortar establishment to sustain itself, and the high cost of insurance for dive professionals, the SCUBA industry needs a major overhaul to be viable other than being a "destination activity".
To be honest, if one was to ask me if they should take up diving, my recommendation is their money is better spent on a good pair of hiking boots or bicycle instead, and just do a "discover" type experience when on vacation. For those that want to be truly adventurous, take up rock climbing.
-Z
I think it's less of a generational issue as it is the lowering of standards and race to the bottom of training turns out divers (>50%) who aren't even comfortable diving post class. Who wants to pursue something that scares the s##$ out of them?
And it's a catch-22 when dropping OW student rates force shops to shift towards selling DM/AI/Instructor classes to people who honestly shouldn't be any of those who then deliver subpar experiences to OW students who then don't want to continue diving post class or that cruise they already have scheduled, which forces shops to....you get the point.