Who's diving this weekend and where?
- Thread starter pacificgal
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mikemill
Contributor
Well the swell forecast can be spot on. It is just hard to tell exactly how it'll affect the actual dive sites. Swells are just one part of many.
rmitchell248
Guest
I think that the swells were there but the key point is that you have to look at the direction of the swells
Lobos had some decent swells coming in but it was for the most part protected out to hole in the wall/ granite point
You should never rely on the swell forecast, especially for in-the-bay or shore diving.
As Chuck has mentioned before, the forecast many of us use comes from a buoy that's some 20 miles out of the bay. By the time it enters Monterey, it'll often be different.
The forecasts are best used as a 30,000ft overview. As long as it's evident that there's no huge storm rolling in that skunks the dive before you pack the car, whether the forecast is good or bad you really need to be at the dive site watching the sets for 15-20 minutes to see if it's worth getting into the water.
For me, this has worked in my favor more often than not. I've seen maybe 10-15 "bad" prediction days with 8-12ft NW swells. On arriving at the dive site, we decided on all but one occasion that the conditions were calm enough to dive. On one of these "go" days, we sat around for an hour for the sets to calm down a bit, and I would say that turned out a bit dicey in hindsight. Only one time did we decide to walk away from the dive, and instead had a nice long pancake breakfast in Monterey. Those who went out reported a nice dive, but I have no regrets over taking a pass.
You can't really rely on the forecasts, you just have to go see for yourself.
mikemill
Contributor
Of course you do have to factor in travel time 
Of course you do have to factor in travel time
That's definitely true. You guys have easily an extra 3 hours total commute time, right? That's what season passes to the Aquarium are for
I guess my point is, in my experience, relying on the forecasts will more often than not, and by a wide margin, prevent you from diving on perfectly diveable days. If you only have time to dive once a month or so, to me that means it's statistically worth making the trek out since the chances of finding decent/safe diving are quite high.
If you're out every weekend, skipping the few bad forecast days isn't all that big a deal. To that note, as one seasoned local put it, "It's not about hitting all the good days. It's about missing all of the bad days."
You guys would probably be surprised at some conditions I've dived in. :shocked2:
I used to think of 12 footers as "maybe not a Monastery day. But then again, I can sneak in over by the day care center..."
I used to think of 12 footers as "maybe not a Monastery day. But then again, I can sneak in over by the day care center..."
OP
pacificgal
Rest in Peace...
For me, the swimming scallop and mola mola was totally worth taking the chance.
If you can choose your day with little or no lead time, by all means pick the best day of the month. But if you have to commit to a day a few weeks in advance and have little opportunity to change it, the calculus is a bit different.
You certainly don't want to go out on a bad day, but the swell predictions aren't the best gauge of bad days (especially for shore diving inside the protection of the bay).
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