But... the parallels to the industry I have been in for the past 17 years are striking, so here are my $.02
A dive shop is a retail business. Retail has always been about Location, Location, Location... because retail has always been about volume. And the reality is that the Internet is the high ground for location -- ie everyone can shop there. The die is cast, and the game is already over, the internet stores will win (kinda like the pacific theater after Midway) all that remains is the end game. Oh, there will be some brands that will hold out and will try to "save" their profitable retail channel. They will do it, not because they believe in it, but because the alternative is to lose control of their profit margins. Once power moves from 1000's of disconnected independent retailers, to a handfull of large distributors they will have to give up their margins. However, give in they will because volume is where the money is, and the volume will move to the Internet stores, don't be surprised to see an Internet store buy a mfg within the next 18 months. Expect it to start with non-life-support first (fins, masks, wetsuits). They will then leverage the mainline manufacturers by threatening to buy a full line producer -- maybe one of the consumer oriented lines like Mares or Oceanic -- to receive deep discount "class of trade" contract prices. The consumers pocketbook will benefit, as will a handfull of investors, the small shops had better be ready.
However, I am tired of hearing the arguement that when LP puts all the LDS out of business I won't be able to get fills. The reality is that the dive shops located where "most" people actually dive support their stores doing fills. I bet that the Monterey Bay Dive Center (where I frequently fill) does more like 100-150+ air fills a weekend. There will always be someone offering fills at the primary dive destinations, because they can make serious bucks charging $5-10 a fill to the throng of divers that head to these spots. In addition they frequently do a healthy rental business, as well as impulse sales in their front end. (oh yeah, I remember - location, location, location).
Speaking about location, there are at least 3 other dive shops in Monterey plus a truck with a compressor on the back that makes the rounds of the dive spots. Bottom line, where there is demand, there will be someone around to fill it. Yes it will be tougher to get fills in out-of-the-way locations, but realistically, the folks that dive these spots are more likely to be seriously into diving and likely members of local dive clubs -- hmmmm, maybe they can justify a fill station for their club.
Lastly instruction... The average instruction given in an OW class does exactly what it says it does, it prepares the diver to dive in conditions similar to conditions they experienced during their training. Personally, 18 months ago I paid $125 for my OW cert class at
Maui Diving Scuba Center in Lahaina, which included all equipment rentals. Again this is about location, location, location. This shop has several full time instructors and keeps them busy with 2 classes a week, each with 8 students. That works out to $2000-$3000 a week in revenue from training. They sell almost no gear, and suppliment their revenue by running charters and by filling the tanks for many of the hotel "resort diving" programs in Lahaina. Again, here is an LDS that has figured out how to exist without selling overpriced equipment to unsuspecting customers. As to the quality of my training. I feel that I was taught by an excellent instructor who thoroughly covered bouyancy, beach entries, buddy skills, OOA scenarios, etc. At the end of my "3 day wonder" class, I felt that I (and my 5 kids ages 13-20) who also took the class) understood diving well enough to do shallow (above 60fsw) dives in low surge, high visability conditions at known locations with easy entry/exits. Exactly what I had been certified for.
I compare diving to driving, in both cases poor skills can get you killed. When learning to drive you only spend about 6 hours with a paid instructor. After that you are turned loose with a proficient driver (usually a parent) that supervises your driving. Saying that OW classes should cost $1500 is like saying that driving lessons should cost $1500, and require 60+ hours of driving with a professional instructor. I don't think a student with no unsupervised dives could comprehend the level of information included in 60+ hours of instruction. Better to give them their OW card and encourage them to dive within their skill range, with a buddy with more experience and skills. They will learn by example (hopefully a good one) and by trial and error. Then as their skills progress, if they want to dive more challenging dives, they should go back for more instruction.
Anyway, this is a long rant but I do have a point.
* Dive instruction is a profession,
* Filling tanks is a service offered for a fee,
* Dive gear is an commodity item available from multiple dealers,
* Dive shops are a business that offer one or more of the above services depending on the demographics of their market, and should be run as such.
Businesses that get angry at customers that don't want to support their personal perception of their value proposition are missing the #4 rule of Retail business (#1-3 being Location), namely that the customer is always right.
Those that ignore that they may be in a demograophic market that will not support their store, then get mad when customers complain that their prices are higher then the compitition and try to explain to the customer why they should buy from them anyway because if not the store will close and the customer won't be able to buy from their overpriced establishment once they are gone... shortly will be gone.
So what will happen to the small market LDS that exists to teach folks to scuba dive before they go on vacation. Some will survive, some won't. People are in this business because they love it, so money has never been the real draw. But this industry, like so many before it, will change, and it will be painful to those that hate change. And those that thrive on change, and are ready for it, will prosper.
So get over it, and lets go blow bubbles.....
RJ