I'm not in the industry, but since my kids are "millenials" (currently nearing their 30s) I noticed that they just aren't into owning things. They would rather "do" things. I've seen this with the 20s at work, too. Some of them see "things" as something that takes up space when it isn't being used.
You aren't the only one that's noticed this. Check this:
Millennials: Forget material things, help us take selfies
This seems to mean that gear "ownership" could decline at the same time that the number of "divers" stays stead or even increases. Think about those who choose renting over home ownership (or can't afford a house), or the popularity of car sharing, whether its Car2Go or Uber.
The definition of "diver" might have to change. Not sure how to do that and maintain safety standards. Diving takes training, a lot more than windsurfing, or kayaking, or fishing, or (most) hiking.
I have NO idea how this will play out. Maybe we'll see a decline of mid-high rec and tech diving, and just more and more "resort course", where diving will be a one time experience, or only as part of a vacation. Like you were saying, dive experience in the morning, fishing or windsurfing in the afternoon.
Maybe instead of people going on vacation in order to dive, they'll go on vacation and diving will just be one of the things they happen to do.
I've already seen the diving industry go from "ex Navy macho diver" instructors (70s/80s) to where we are today.
Threads about "standards slipping" are an almost weekly thing here.
I see the same thing on the ham radio forums: "the hobby has gone to hell since they stopped requiring morse code at 100 words per minute and building a radio from tubes, bobby pins, spit and gumption". The hobby hasn't gone downhill, it's just *changed* to digital modes, moon bounce, microwave and software defined radios. It changed in a way that the "old guard" just couldn't see coming because it was so different from their experience.
I'm currently in the video game industry. We're still sorting out what to do now that people don't want to buy a disk. They want to rent or buy games as a service, the experience, not own a piece of plastic. As a stepping stone, we let them buy a "disk" online and download it. Some companies are looking at pure game online "rental" markets, or "all you can play" for some $/month.
Look at NetFlix - remember when they mailed DVDs? Now you pay a monthly price for all you can watch.
I have no idea what the similar change is going to be for diving. This sport requires equipment and training. One of those has to be purchased, one doesn't. Maybe that's the market shift?
Diving isn't going downhill, it's just changing in a way that no one has quite figured out yet. As the "old guard" it's going to be hard for us to figure this out, especially if we see this as a "decline" instead of a "change".
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