Opening Of Indonesia pushed to end of 2020?

[David Novo]

You are in doubt also for the US and European countries? Why?

For the US and European countries, I think that the majority of people that want to travel will have the vaccine sometime next year.
I am not so sure whether that will happen soon enough so that everyone that would like to travel in 2021 from those geographies, actually will.
I think coverage by the end of 2021 will not be the same for the remaining geographies (with the exception of Japan).

 

[Indah]

The numbers I have seen secured so far (for EU) cover just a fraction of the populations. Yes EU has ordered from several suppliers and new orders are on the way but still they are not enough to cover most/all citizens. Keep in mind that it seems that 2 doses are needed per person for the vaccines. So if everyone was to be vaccinated close to 1bilion doses would be needed for EU only.
Before we get these numbers priority will be given to certain groups (medical stuff, older people and those who cater them etc). I'd bet those willing to travel for pleasure will be given quite low priority.

Now my concern is not this, sooner or later we will have the numbers needed even for poorer countries. My concern is that these vaccines are totally new technologies and they haven't been proven in practice. Yes there are ongoing studies that look promising but studies are studies. Nobody really knows how effective they will prove in wide scale.

Hope for the best and wait is the best we can do for now.

US, Germany and UK could start Covid vaccinations as early as December

 

[Mod63]

You are in doubt also for the US and European countries? Why?

I do not think the EU has an issue (if all vaccines that they have purchasing agreemenst for come to market). As of today, the EU has secured more than double the doses it would need to vaccinate everyone. It's tripple if you consider that only around 60% need to be actually vaccinated to more or less stop the pandemic and even less to get infections down to a level where the health system can cope. I would suspect that latest by mid-2021 it will be free for all (at least in Germany) to reach a high imunisation level fast.

 

[David Novo]

US, Germany and UK could start Covid vaccinations as early as December

I do not think the EU has an issue (if all vaccines that they have purchasing agreemenst for come to market). As of today, the EU has secured more than double the doses it would need to vaccinate everyone. It's tripple if you consider that only around 60% need to be actually vaccinated to more or less stop the pandemic and even less to get infections down to a level where the health system can cope. I would suspect that latest by mid-2021 it will be free for all (at least in Germany) to reach a high imunisation level fast.

That is a big if!

Moreover, stopping the pandemic locally is not equal to be vaccinated to travel.

 

[Searcaigh]

The key point is with the latest news on the vaccines is that they are showing great efficacy and that is only post Phase III trials. They haven't even begun to look at the safety aspect yet, which should follow and take about a year or two.

Personally I'll wait a few more months.

 

[Dan]

With 95% success rate, I’ll volunteer to be the guinea pig.

 

[David Novo]

With 95% success rate, I’ll volunteer to be the guinea pig.

+1

 

[Jcp2]

The vaccines are being tested by the standard of preventing viral illness. We are only speculating that the lack of illness is the same as the lack of infectivity. As there are already a significant percentage of carriers that do not become ill already, I would not depend on others being vaccinated in order to prevent illness in the non vaccinated.

 

[Mod63]

The key point is with the latest news on the vaccines is that they are showing great efficacy and that is only post Phase III trials. They haven't even begun to look at the safety aspect yet, which should follow and take about a year or two.
Personally I'll wait a few more months.

Not quite, phase 1 already deals with safety, which is also checked in phase 2. Phase 3 is the final test, and if that is sucessfull then the vaccine can be approved. Phase 4 deals with long term effects. Both BioNTechs (40k+) and Modernas (30k+) studies are well above usual phase 3 study groups (which are 10k), AstraZeneca is (currently) the smalest at around 12k, on the other hand are they the only one that did test if participants are infecteous, and current data shows that is not the case, so it would protect both the vaccinated person from getting sick and not be a spreader.

 

[Centrals]

What a bummer if the effectiveness of the vaccine only last for few months.