Nord Stream Pipeline Video

[HalcyonDaze]

The evidence is clear the Russians did it.
The seabed around the pipeline was littered with discarded Mountain Dew cans and Redman chewing tobacco wrappers.

View attachment 754569

Curious to know what that photo's from - no relation to the topic, just never seen those before.

 

[HalcyonDaze]

Saying that if it was you lot that did it then the sea bed will be littered with Uncle Sam debris evidence by the shed load and all you have to do is look what USN vessel was making its way south of the UK
back home across the pond the moment it all went up. From you can guess where it was a few days prior.

This here is one of the reasons I highly doubt it would have been the US or NATO - once the boom went off, there was no way anyone was going to go back and police up the debris until the gas stopped leaking (at which point any interested parties would have started looking for evidence; not a good time to hang around). In order to escape blame, one would have to either make sure before the explosion that the sabotage units weren't detected and none of the materials used implicated the offending party, or that everyone looking (Sweden and Denmark, at minimum) were fully in on it. Both seem like dicey propositions; as stated it's also a dicey proposition to get a nuclear sub in there (there's a good reason why every fleet in the Baltic favors small, short-range coastal submarines - that's skinny and confined water for a nuke boat and there's just one set of very narrow exits). While the US did have a few surface warships in the Baltic in the general timeframe (for the annual BALTOPS exercises with NATO states plus Finland and Sweden), they weren't good candidates for a sabotage operation (an amphibious assault ship, the Sixth Fleet command ship, and a guided-missile destroyer - all big, easily-tracked ships with lots of crew to blab).

Speaking of leaking gas, that sequence of events is also instructive. The initial sign something had gone wrong was when seismometers in Germany, Sweden, Finland, and Norway reported two separate P-waves about 17 hours apart. This was followed by Nord Stream AG in Germany reporting a drop in pressure on the pipelines. Visual confirmation on the leaks came via Danish military aircraft and Swedish coast guard vessels. Now granted, the Russians haven't exactly had the best track record in letting Western Europe know when they have an oopsie (they tried to keep Chernobyl quiet up until European nuclear plants downwind started wondering why their radiation detectors were going off), but one would think somewhere in that timeframe Gazprom or Moscow should have chimed in to say they had lost pressure in the lines. I haven't heard of them making any official statements until fingers started pointing. Also, gas flow out of the northern set of leaks reportedly ramped up a week later as Sweden was preparing to investigate the breaches; maybe someone on the Russian end of the line forgot "righty tighty, lefty loosey" but it seems an odd thing to do.

To answer an earlier comment, I'm not "pushing" this viewpoint because I believe my nation of origin to be spotless white-hatted Good Guys in all matters. I'm pointing it out because it's not a simple narrative of "Country X owned pipelines and Country Y wanted them closed, therefore it must have been Country Y." It's about sizing up the motives, risks, rewards, and modus operandi of all parties; this was a bat**** crazy stunt with a high probability of getting caught. It's easier for me to buy that it was done by someone in the area with multiple motives who historically has not cared about having shenanigans traced back to them and relies on vranyo (a delightful term I've recently been introduced to) as a defense; the other suspect bandied about isn't local, tends to be very nervous about leaks that involve journalists, and relies more on diplomatic arm-twisting to coerce economic outcomes.

 

[lowwall]

It's easier for me to buy that it was done by someone in the area with multiple motives who historically has not cared about having shenanigans traced back to them and relies on vranyo (a delightful term I've recently been introduced to) as a defense; the other suspect bandied about isn't local, tends to be very nervous about leaks that involve journalists, and relies more on diplomatic arm-twisting to coerce economic outcomes.

So Poland? Let's see:
- In the area. Yes, direct naval access to sabotage locations.
- Has multiple motives. Yes, lessen Russian leverage on Germany and increase value of its new Baltic Pipe pipeline.
- Historically not cared about shenanigans being traced back to them. I don't know about historically, but the current government certainly doesn't care. For example, they revelled* in their mistreatment of migrants being forced across the Polish border by Belarus. Poland/Belarus: New evidence of abuses highlights ‘hypocrisy’ of unequal treatment of asylum-seekers
- Vranyo? Kłamstwa.
- Nervous about leaks that involve journalists? Again, not the current government.
- Relies more on diplomatic arm-twisting to coerce economic outcomes. No.

* the National Bank or Poland issued a collectible banknote and coin to commemorate "the defense of the Polish Eastern border".

Look, I have no special knowledge of anything here. I just can't see how Russia benefits from destroying these pipelines. No matter how it ends, the war is going to be over long before Europe's thirst for Russian gas goes away. Why throw away the billions of dollars from lost sales plus the substantial costs of repairing these lines?

 

[Searcaigh]

I believe the Nord Stream pipelines were built by Gazprom.

Perhaps explosives were installed during the construction just to mess things up later on?

 

[iain/hsm]

Curious to know what that photo's from - no relation to the topic, just never seen those before.

This forum works on multiple levels. Some would have preferred I had used an old stock photo of an old WW11 round mine with "horns" sticking out but it wouldn't have been that interesting.
On another level others would look at the photo I did post and instantly recognise just how close the groupings were to the "imaginary" pipe line target and just how close you can group them together to be very effective. Practice practice practice I guess is the point I wished to make.

Now if that doesn't work for our fellow "commercial" divers then they may prefer that a "diver did it option" in which case I offer the following:

A smart bomb diver deployed magnetic mine as illustrated below. a diver deployed time fuzed around 350mm in diameter (for an idea of size) Pops a big hole in up to 30mm thick steel and magnetic. Also available in darker colours

For mounting to a concrete covered pipeline you should use a small nail gun to attach such as the Ramset or Tornado underwater stud guns and if you really want to blame it on us Brits may I offer you the Cox's Divers Bolt Gun quintessentially British and capable of punching a big enough hole all by itself albeit with some risk

All is good if you want to go full-on Rambo style.
However In practice a small pocket rocket "Pea shooter" pencil gun is quite sufficient.

 

[HalcyonDaze]

This forum works on multiple levels. Some would have preferred I had used an old stock photo of an old WW11 round mine with "horns" sticking out but it wouldn't have been that interesting.
On another level others would look at the photo I did post and instantly recognise just how close the groupings were to the "imaginary" pipe line target and just how close you can group them together to be very effective. Practice practice practice I guess is the point I wished to make.

Now if that doesn't work for our fellow "commercial" divers then they may prefer that a "diver did it option" in which case I offer the following:

A smart bomb diver deployed magnetic mine as illustrated below. a diver deployed time fuzed around 350mm in diameter (for an idea of size) Pops a big hole in up to 30mm thick steel and magnetic. Also available in darker colours

For mounting to a concrete covered pipeline you should use a small nail gun to attach such as the Ramset or Tornado underwater stud guns and if you really want to blame it on us Brits may I offer you the Cox's Divers Bolt Gun quintessentially British and capable of punching a big enough hole all by itself albeit with some risk

All is good if you want to go full-on Rambo style.
However In practice a small pocket rocket "Pea shooter" pencil gun is quite sufficient.

View attachment 754778

I was mostly curious to know what those objects were (practice demo charges, perhaps?) and why the names on them (the last USS Skipjack was decommissioned in 1990; the only USS Flounder was removed from service in 1947).

One suggestion I've seen based on the footage was some kind of linear shaped charge fitted across the pipeline, which might explain the clean cuts and that there appears to be a rectangular strip peeled out to the side. I don't agree that it was necessarily done from a sub; as stated, a nuclear boat going in is unlikely and diesel-electric coastal boats don't have a lot of space for cargo and passengers (also, except for specially-configured boats hatch/escape trunk size is a constraint). Additionally, the sabotage was done in two locations; Russia and Poland each have only one sub based in the Baltic (both 1986-vintage Project 877 Paltus/Kilo boats, amusingly enough). The only other navies that operate subs based in the Baltic are the Germans and the Swedes; the Norwegian sub fleet is based at Bergen on the North Sea.

More likely suspects could be those two surface ships observed in the area beforehand that were not broadcasting their positions on AIS; one hint might be the estimated size from satellite imagery of 95 to 130 meters. That's larger than either the Polish Kormoran-class minehunters or Piast-class salvage ships, which would be the most likely Polish candidates to support underwater demolition operations. It might be the right size bracket for their largest ships, the Lublin-class minelayer landing ships (odd combo) and Perry-class frigates, but those aren't exactly great diving support platforms.

 

[OTF]

If someone were to attack a pipeline from a sub why would they do anything more complicated than launch a torpedo or two?

 

[SlugLife]

I was mostly curious to know what those objects were (practice demo charges, perhaps?) and why the names on them (the last USS Skipjack was decommissioned in 1990; the only USS Flounder was removed from service in 1947).

One suggestion I've seen based on the footage was some kind of linear shaped charge fitted across the pipeline, which might explain the clean cuts and that there appears to be a rectangular strip peeled out to the side. I don't agree that it was necessarily done from a sub; as stated, a nuclear boat going in is unlikely and diesel-electric coastal boats don't have a lot of space for cargo and passengers (also, except for specially-configured boats hatch/escape trunk size is a constraint). Additionally, the sabotage was done in two locations; Russia and Poland each have only one sub based in the Baltic (both 1986-vintage Project 877 Paltus/Kilo boats, amusingly enough). The only other navies that operate subs based in the Baltic are the Germans and the Swedes; the Norwegian sub fleet is based at Bergen on the North Sea.

View attachment 754800

More likely suspects could be those two surface ships observed in the area beforehand that were not broadcasting their positions on AIS; one hint might be the estimated size from satellite imagery of 95 to 130 meters. That's larger than either the Polish Kormoran-class minehunters or Piast-class salvage ships, which would be the most likely Polish candidates to support underwater demolition operations. It might be the right size bracket for their largest ships, the Lublin-class minelayer landing ships (odd combo) and Perry-class frigates, but those aren't exactly great diving support platforms.

Generally in agreement with most of that. I think those suggesting a military submarine with divers is possible, but overkill. I'd change that graphic from "how it was done" to something that implies probability. Unless they have some first-hand sources who did it.

I hesitate to point at any specific ships that were in the area, on the simple basis. If one used a timer, you could be a long ways away, perhaps months away by the time the explosion occurred. It helps to ask, "if I was going to do this, how would I pull it off?" Because unless the criminal is an idiot, the probably had some of the same ideas. For something like this, I'd probably want to setup the explosives about 2 or 3 months in advance, and 2 different fishing-boats, so that there would be dozens of other culprits looked at first well before anyone looks at me.

If someone were to attack a pipeline from a sub why would they do anything more complicated than launch a torpedo or two?

That would leave behind a lot of evidence and whatever did it would be nearby. If you don't care about anyone knowing you did it, then sure.

 

[L13]

I was mostly curious to know what those objects were (practice demo charges, perhaps?) and why the names on them (the last USS Skipjack was decommissioned in 1990; the only USS Flounder was removed from service in 1947).

I'm pretty sure those particular pictures were internet fakes, which is why those particular names...

 

[iain/hsm]

I was mostly curious to know what those objects were (practice demo charges, perhaps?) and why the names on them (the last USS Skipjack was decommissioned in 1990; the only USS Flounder was removed from service in 1947).

Yes they were practice charges it was a recent practice exercise.
But the clue here is how the forum works on many levels.
I agree entirely with you. Skipjack and Flounder were old USS warships.
Now ask yourself what was hiding in plain sight.
We see through a dark glass dimly I guess.