Nord Stream Pipeline Video

[lowwall]

For all the "any twist of logic to blame someone other than Russia" folks - if the objective was to completely deny Nord Stream as a gas supply option to Germany, why only blow three out of the four pipelines? As stated, the B pipeline of Nord Stream 2 was undamaged and the Russians have said since the explosions that it could be made operational if the Germans would pretty please just let them open the valves.

Interesting. But same conclusion.

Cutting capacity by 75% still damages Russia's long term interests. Nord Stream 2 wasn't going to replace 1, they were going to run in parallel, which means Germany was eager to buy as much as 110 billion cubic meters of gas per year from the Russians. Now the maximum is 27.5. One way or another, this war is going to end eventually. Why would Russia voluntarily give up such enormous future cash flows?

OTOH, it makes perfect sense for the US to insist or decide (depending on who actually carried out the attack) to leave one line intact to send a message while limiting the harm to Germany's economic future. And it would need to be a Nord Stream 2 line since that would take the longest to make operational.

 

[HalcyonDaze]

Nobody has placed Russia at the scene of the pipeline explosion.

First on CNN: European security officials observed Russian Navy ships in vicinity of Nord Stream pipeline leaks | CNN Politics

European security officials on Monday and Tuesday observed Russian Navy support ships in the vicinity of leaks in the Nord Stream pipelines likely caused by underwater explosions, according two Western intelligence officials and one other source familiar with the matter.

www.cnn.com

 

[HalcyonDaze]

Interesting. But same conclusion.

Cutting capacity by 75% still damages Russia's long term interests. Nord Stream 2 wasn't going to replace 1, they were going to run in parallel, which means Germany was eager to buy as much as 110 billion cubic meters of gas per year from the Russians. Now the maximum is 27.5. One way or another, this war is going to end eventually. Why would Russia voluntarily give up such enormous future cash flows?

OTOH, it makes perfect sense for the US to insist or decide (depending on who actually carried out the attack) to leave one line intact to send a message while limiting the harm to Germany's economic future. And it would need to be a Nord Stream 2 line since that would take the longest to make operational.

Germany receives (and is still receiving) Russian gas from other pipeline routes, with plans to phase out purchases next year as I recall. The appeal of Nord Stream to the Russians (and why it was opposed by other countries) was that it bypassed the existing land-based pipelines through Ukraine, which allowed Ukraine to generate transit revenue and gave them a little insurance the Russians wouldn't cut off their gas. With that said, both Nord Stream 1 pipelines were operational until the Russians first throttled back the flow during the summer and then shut it down indefinitely at the end of August, so evidently they didn't think it was worth generating revenue at the time. Again, refer to the video dated from early September posted earlier; the analysis at the time was that what Russia needed was an increase in natural gas prices, not an increase in delivery volume.

As far as "enormous future cash flows" - unless Russia can force Ukraine to the negotiating table and get near-term sanctions relief, those don't exist. Europe is divesting itself of Russian energy imports; heck, in Germany the frigging Green Party has backed bringing coal-fired power plants online and they're looking at extending a couple of nuclear plants that were due to decommission. When your energy export market is run like a Mafia protection racket ("Nice central heating you have, shame if someone turned off the gas"), customers tend to look for other offers when given the option.

So again - the objective of getting Germany off the Russian gas pipe was already being accomplished via trade and diplomatic means. So why take the risk of blowing the pipelines in a way that was guaranteed to attract attention and close inspection, and would have required bringing in outside assets to a navigationally restricted and confined area?

 

[Jcp2]

Why take the risk of having a special military operation in the Ukraine?

 

[lowwall]

All Russia had to do to turn off the gas was to turn off the gas. There was no need for them to blow up their own pipelines to accomplish this. They do not currently have the ability to replace the sales volume that has gone through these lines and building out that capacity with India and China as end customers will take years.

No one seriously suggests that Germany will not buy Russian gas once the war is over. And selling 4 pipelines full of gas is going to be more profitable than selling 1 pipelines worth even at a higher price. Of course Germany plans to phase out the purchases over time, but that will take years if it happens at all given the Greens stupid obsession with shutting down nuclear power generation.

 

[HalcyonDaze]

One additional point to make - there's a reason the USN underwater espionage operations that we know of (such as Ivy Bells, which was the 1971-1981 cable tap placed on a Soviet military undersea cable in the Sea of Okhotsk) were focused on intelligence gathering rather than sabotage. It's the same reason why, with some limited exceptions (e.g., Stuxnet), we don't see a lot of US-linked cyberwarfare sabotage outright shutting down things like power grids or internet access - that kind of malicious action in "peacetime" gives the other guy a tacit pass to do the same or worse to you, and countries that rely heavily on energy imports and unrestricted global communications are much, much more sensitive to things like pipelines being blown up or internet cables being severed than a nation that is self-sufficient in energy supplies or has heavily restricted public communications. Russia on the other hand has a habit of publicly, if "deniably" (for about the same value of "deniably" as Al Capone), demonstrating those capabilities because it's an asymmetric warfare edge and thus a deterrent for them. They may be utterly forked in an open conflict with NATO, but in that "gray zone" short of war they can make life really difficult (and NATO historically has more restrictive rules of engagement regarding unknown surfaced or submerged vessels poking about).

Generally speaking, the best covert operations aren't ones where nobody knows who did it; they're the ones where nobody knows anything happened at all.

 

[HalcyonDaze]

As stated, an issue with operating in the Baltic is doing so without being observed - ‘Dark Ships’ Emerge From the Shadows of the Nord Stream Mystery

 

[HalcyonDaze]

Swedish investigators reporting traces of explosives were found at the pipeline damage sites.

Explosive traces found at Nord Stream pipeline indicate 'gross sabotage,' Sweden says | CNN Business

The blasts at the Nord Stream pipeline in September were caused by an act of sabotage, Swedish prosecutors said Friday after evidence of explosives was discovered at the sites by investigators.

edition.cnn.com

EDIT: Adding the link for the official statement of the Swedish Security Service. "In the crime scene investigations carried out onsite in the Baltic Sea, the extensive damage to the gas pipelines resulting from detonations has been thoroughly documented. Several seizures have been made, including foreign items. Explosive residue was identified on a number of the seized and analysed foreign items."

Confirmed sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines

The Swedish Security Service is working intensively on the investigation regarding the detonations at the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines. This investigation shows that the pipelines have been subject to gross sabotage.

sakerhetspolisen.se

 

[HalcyonDaze]

BBC piece from this weekend, including an ROV dive on the pipelines: A journey to the site of the Nord Stream explosions

 

[iain/hsm]

The evidence is clear the Russians did it.
The seabed around the pipeline was littered with discarded Mountain Dew cans and Redman chewing tobacco wrappers.