Nord Stream Pipeline Video

[lexvil]

Unless that higher price is enough to offset reduced capacity, I would say most profit goes to the person that didn't sell much, but it is now at that same increased price

I believe we just said the same thing.

 

[DiveProKoko]

My guess is the Poles.

A good theory

 

[HalcyonDaze]

Found this after writing my earlier post:

 

[lowwall]

I don't think anyone doubts that the Russians have the capability to destroy the pipelines, but I still can't see any reason why they would want to.

The cheap gas that could have flowed through those pipelines would have been a huge lever with which to press Germany to slow their already tepid support of Ukraine and call for an early end to the war on terms favorable to Putin.

OTOH, taking the pipelines out appears to have had the effect of making the German government realize the fastest way to restore access to cheap Russian gas may be through a Ukrainian victory. Germany's most important direct military assistance, the delivery of the IRIS-T SLM air defense missile system, came just 2 weeks after the pipeline explosions. Which was 2 months ahead of when Germany had originally said they would be delivered. It also seems like Germany is finally seriously considering sending Leopard tanks to Ukraine, something it had resisted despite Ukraine's requests for them since the invasion.

Again focusing on who had the desire and the opportunity, I strongly suspect Poland was the base of operations and the primary actor. Perhaps by themselves, but more likely with US and/or British support.

 

[SlugLife]

I don't think anyone doubts that the Russians have the capability to destroy the pipelines, but I still can't see any reason why they would want to.

The cheap gas that could have flowed through those pipelines would have been a huge lever with which to press Germany to slow their already tepid support of Ukraine and call for an early end to the war on terms favorable to Putin.

OTOH, taking the pipelines out appears to have had the effect of making the German government realize the fastest way to restore access to cheap Russian gas may be through a Ukrainian victory. Germany's most important direct military assistance, the delivery of the IRIS-T SLM air defense missile system, came just 2 weeks after the pipeline explosions. Which was 2 months ahead of when Germany had originally said they would be delivered. It also seems like Germany is finally seriously considering sending Leopard tanks to Ukraine, something it had resisted despite Ukraine's requests for them since the invasion.

Again focusing on who had the desire and the opportunity, I strongly suspect Poland was the base of operations and the primary actor. Perhaps by themselves, but more likely with US and/or British support.

Right, saying Russia has the ability to destroy a pipeline is fairly meaningless. It's like blaming Joe for a murder, because he owns a gun. In this scenario, there are many who have the capacity to destroy the pipeline, and citing ability is somewhat meaningless.

For example: Joe Biden and Victoria Nuland promised they could stop the pipeline; a barely veiled threat, and then the pipeline is dead. It would be easy to say "see, the US did it!" Maybe the US did it. Maybe it was more of a "copy cat killer" scenario, where someone else attacked the pipeline realizing the US would be the #1 suspect because of those threats. (Which is why one shouldn't issue such threats unless you intend to own the consequences).

Perhaps the only useful info one can get from "who has the ability to attack the pipeline?" would be looking at who would lack the ability, as a process of elimination. IMO, there are certainly nations which could much more easily pull it off, and the pipelines being hit in 4 places suggests a level of sophistication.

That said, lets say you had a $5-million dollar budget, access to explosives, and were asked to pull this off (a budget available to any nation). I could imagine a few ways of pulling that off. Perhaps it would be difficult, not ultra-stealthy, and would leave behind some evidence. Lets say a few fishing boats, use cloud or night cover, divers or underwater drones, lower explosives along a rope or cable, set timer for 30-days, and get out.

With almost all of NATO happy the pipeline got blown up, you wouldn't really need to be worried about a serious investigation from that end. I think it was Sweden and one other country who said they know who did it, but can't say for national security reasons.

 

[lowwall]

There really aren't that many logical possibilities. Ukraine would have loved to have done it, but they don't have the assets to do it alone and I don't think any of the NATO countries (I'm thinking Poland) would be allowed to take them in a joint operation. It's certainly not the Scandinavians' style to go out on a limb like that with a military operation. The Baltic states have too much to lose; if they were behind it and found out, the Russian response would be devastating. There is no way the German military would do this to their own industrial partners. The French military is capable of this and might be interested, but it's very hard to imagine Macron approving such an operation.

So that basically leaves Poland, the UK, and the US. It's pretty easy to picture the US providing reconnaissance and intel while Poland provides the base, boats and divers, perhaps with the UK's SBS helping with the planning and dives.

 

[admikar]

IMO, Daze is pushing hard for Russian culpability because it is hard for him to admit that Russians aren't the only bad guys today. Are they bad? They certainly are, but West has been shown to do stuff that is as shady as anything Russians have done.

 

[scubaozy]

Germany really needs the gas, they will manage this winter but next winter will be tough. Russians needs to sell it as well, I am pretty sure if US did not push for a war of attrition, Putin would have agreed to a cease fire and open the valves again. So, it must be someone who dislike the Germs and Russians, Poles fit the bill . But no Nato country could dare to do anything without blessing of the US, so imo they are at least informed.

 

[HalcyonDaze]

For all the "any twist of logic to blame someone other than Russia" folks - if the objective was to completely deny Nord Stream as a gas supply option to Germany, why only blow three out of the four pipelines? As stated, the B pipeline of Nord Stream 2 was undamaged and the Russians have said since the explosions that it could be made operational if the Germans would pretty please just let them open the valves. Nord Stream 1 was at the time shut down by the Russians "indefinitely" for "maintenance issues" that they claimed resulted from sanctions, so it's not like the explosions interrupted a revenue stream for the Russians. The explosions however did cause a 12% jump in natural gas prices, even though the pipelines in question were not delivering gas.

Overall, any NATO country conducting an act of sabotage in their alliance's own waters against a pipeline supplying one of their own members, in the territory of their own members (plus Sweden, a country they're trying to bring into NATO) is a pretty reckless move. The wet dream of the Russians for years has been to see NATO and the EU devolve into fractured squabbling; the US, British, Poles, (insert dartboard speculation here) getting caught by another NATO country poking around a gas pipeline to Germany - or having evidence matched to them found after the explosion - would do just that. You don't do reckless when you have a unified alliance that's got the other guy isolated and on the wrong side of the scoreboard; you do reckless when cornered.

Right, saying Russia has the ability to destroy a pipeline is fairly meaningless. It's like blaming Joe for a murder, because he owns a gun. In this scenario, there are many who have the capacity to destroy the pipeline, and citing ability is somewhat meaningless.

For example: Joe Biden and Victoria Nuland promised they could stop the pipeline; a barely veiled threat, and then the pipeline is dead. It would be easy to say "see, the US did it!" Maybe the US did it. Maybe it was more of a "copy cat killer" scenario, where someone else attacked the pipeline realizing the US would be the #1 suspect because of those threats. (Which is why one shouldn't issue such threats unless you intend to own the consequences).

Perhaps the only useful info one can get from "who has the ability to attack the pipeline?" would be looking at who would lack the ability, as a process of elimination. IMO, there are certainly nations which could much more easily pull it off, and the pipelines being hit in 4 places suggests a level of sophistication.

That said, lets say you had a $5-million dollar budget, access to explosives, and were asked to pull this off (a budget available to any nation). I could imagine a few ways of pulling that off. Perhaps it would be difficult, not ultra-stealthy, and would leave behind some evidence. Lets say a few fishing boats, use cloud or night cover, divers or underwater drones, lower explosives along a rope or cable, set timer for 30-days, and get out.

With almost all of NATO happy the pipeline got blown up, you wouldn't really need to be worried about a serious investigation from that end. I think it was Sweden and one other country who said they know who did it, but can't say for national security reasons.

Your scenario leaves out that the US did carry out its "threat" on Feb. 22 - Nord Stream 2 certification was suspended by the Germans under pressure from the US and other NATO allies, and on Feb. 27 Germany announced plans to construct new LNG terminals to replace the demand. Nord Stream 2 AG went bankrupt on March 1 and laid off all its employees. That's the nice part about having allies and diplomatic clout - you can grind things to a halt without blowing stuff up. Russia on the other hand goes by the maxim of Putin's favorite tsar, Alexsander III - "Russia has only two allies: the Army and the Navy."

In this case "Joe" - or shall we say, "Ivan" - not only owns a lot of guns, he was reported to be at the crime scene, he knew the layout of the victim's house, he had been holding the victim hostage for several weeks, he was hard up for money, he lives in the neighborhood, and he has a habit of issuing threats, being in places where people got whacked, or casing houses and saying afterwards "can't prove it was me, copper, I was just visiting to see the cathedrals."

 

[SlugLife]

In this case "Joe" - or shall we say, "Ivan" - not only owns a lot of guns, he was reported to be at the crime scene, he knew the layout of the victim's house, he had been holding the victim hostage for several weeks, he was hard up for money, he lives in the neighborhood, and he has a habit of issuing threats, being in places where people got whacked, or casing houses and saying afterwards "can't prove it was me, copper, I was just visiting to see the cathedrals."

Nobody has placed Russia at the scene of the pipeline explosion.