Nord Stream Pipeline Video

[SlugLife]

And sometimes Russia did do it, in the pipeline case I think it was shoddy workmanship.

...which is why multiple pipelines blew up on the same day?

 

[lexvil]

...which is why multiple pipelines blew up on the same day?

No idea but I don’t see explosive damage in the video, I also don’t buy into conspiracy nonsense from people who only wish to incite unrest and distrust. Someday their will be some credible info and as of now I’m not a fan of the putin Russia, I can’t see how anyone can be but I’m not a psychiatrist…

 

[SlugLife]

Sweden won't share Nord Stream investigation findings with Russia - PM

Sweden won't share findings of the investigation into the explosions of the Nord Stream gas pipelines with Russian authorities or Gazprom , Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said on Monday.

www.reuters.com

"A Swedish crime scene investigation of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines from Russia to Europe has found evidence of detonations and prosecutors suspect sabotage."

 

[HalcyonDaze]

Every time some incident happens, the media immediately says "Russia did it! Russia did it!" with zero evidence for months and years on end. I mean (not to get political), the Hunter Biden story was "Russian Disinformation." The Hillary emails were "Hacked by Russia." And "Russia stole the 2016 election."

....and now "Russia blew up their own pipeline and leverage!" Ok, why wouldn't they just turn off the gas? "Because they're orcs!"

A few points to note:

• Disinformation ops aimed at sowing discord among the enemy and/or instilling a bunker mentality on the home front have been a priority for the Russians since the Soviet days, and they've been keeping it up with the war in Ukraine. Remember a few weeks ago when the Russian MoD and diplomatic corps were loudly proclaiming without any evidence that Ukraine was planning to detonate a "dirty bomb?" More recently they've blamed both the Nord Stream explosions and the Sevastopol drone attack on the British, again without evidence.
• Right now if NATO continues supplying Ukraine, well ... as one Australian commentator put it months ago, "heh heh, Western military-industrial complex go brrrt." Pretty much the only hope the Russians have of pulling any gains out of this mess is fracturing Western support for Ukraine, cutting off the supply of wonderful toys turning their military into borscht, and getting the West to pressure Ukraine to negotiate a "peace" that involves them formally ceding at least some of the territory overrun since February.
• Russia has a history of using gas flows to pressure other countries, including via direct sabotage (Georgia in 2008).
• The blasts took out the A and B pipelines of Nord Stream 1 and the A pipeline of Nord Stream 2; on October 3 the Russians confirmed that the B pipeline of Nord Stream 2 was undamaged and could be reopened if Germany allowed it. The explosions did cause major spikes in the price of natural gas, which would benefit the Russian economy. Remember also that Germany has not completely cut itself off from Russian gas; they are still receiving flows from the Yamal-Europe and other land-based pipelines.
• The blasts happened one day after a joint Polish-Norwegian gas pipeline running from the North Sea platforms down to Denmark was inaugurated; some have speculated that the Nord Stream sabotage was a deniable way of threatening to do the same to that line. Notably, there's been an uptick in reported drone sightings near Norway's North Sea oil and gas platforms, and there was recently an arrest in Norway of a suspected Russian agent connected with those sightings.
• Russia requested to be a party to the investigation; when refused by Germany, Sweden, and Denmark they said they would not recognize any "pseudo-results" from those parties.
• Finally, the Russians have demonstrated over the past year that a) they are willing to take actions that seem irrational or nonsensical to outside observers, and b) those actions do make sense if one assumes (with some evidence) that Russian decision-makers have a very skewed opinion of how the outside world will react.

 

[SlugLife]

The blasts happened one day after a joint Polish-Norwegian gas pipeline running from the North Sea platforms down to Denmark was inaugurated; some have speculated that the Nord Stream sabotage was a deniable way of threatening to do the same to that line.

Look up the difference in sizes between the Polish-Norwegian gas pipelines, and Norstream 1 & 2. The idea that you'd blow up massive pipelines because you feel threatened by tiny pipelines is absolutely absurd.

Finally, the Russians have demonstrated over the past year that a) they are willing to take actions that seem irrational or nonsensical to outside observers, and b) those actions do make sense if one assumes (with some evidence) that Russian decision-makers have a very skewed opinion of how the outside world will react.

If you believe things in the media that are so absurd they can't possibly be true .... then yes, Russia regularly does things that are so absurd they can't possibly be true.

 

[lowwall]

As a homicide detective in the real world who does a fair share of critical thinking and dismisses all assumptions, I have to point to the long list of details posted here by our SB community toward motive, means and opportunity. Then I apply Occam's Razor principle and have my answer. The simplest explanation is preferable to one that is more complex and the simplest solution which is consistent with the existing data is preferred. I'd be shocked if we (the US) didn't do it...

My guess is the Poles.

Means and Opportunity - The sites are around 50 miles from a Polish naval base. They wouldn't have to sneak ships through other nation's waters and wouldn't even need to use subs. They could send a fast boat from shore at dusk, get a couple of hours of work in and be back before daylight. Or launch from and recover to a regular patrol boat and have several hours of working time each night. The Polish Navy certainly has the boats, the divers and the material needed to breach the pipelines.

Motive - Keep the Germans from backing out of their support of Ukraine.

Poles in general want the Russians to lose this war and the current government in particular has an almost pathological hatred of Putin. Their central myth is that the Russians were behind the Smolensk air crash which killed 96 people including the Prime Minister who was also the twin brother of the leader of the political party now in control of Poland.

The Poles also, and with good reason, do not particularly trust the EU and especially Germany to have the backbone to stick this through. Particularly when winter comes and industry starts demanding something be done to lower energy costs. Removing these pipelines from the equation lowers the temptation for the Germans to agree to terms with the Russians that Poland would find unacceptable.

A related motive is this conveniently removes the greatest competitor to the new Polish-Danish-Norwegian Baltic Pipeline for the foreseeable future. Norway-Poland Baltic Pipe opens in move to cut Russia gas dependency

 

[SlugLife]

My guess is the Poles.

Means and Opportunity - The sites are around 50 miles from a Polish naval base. They wouldn't have to sneak ships through other nation's waters and wouldn't even need to use subs. They could send a fast boat from shore at dusk, get a couple of hours of work in and be back before daylight. Or launch from and recover to a regular patrol boat and have several hours of working time each night. The Polish Navy certainly has the boats, the divers and the material needed to breach the pipelines.

Motive - Keep the Germans from backing out of their support of Ukraine.

Poles in general want the Russians to lose this war and the current government in particular has an almost pathological hatred of Putin. Their central myth is that the Russians were behind the Smolensk air crash which killed 96 people including the Prime Minister who was also the twin brother of the leader of the political party now in control of Poland.

The Poles also, and with good reason, do not particularly trust the EU and especially Germany to have the backbone to stick this through. Particularly when winter comes and industry starts demanding something be done to lower energy costs. Removing these pipelines from the equation lowers the temptation for the Germans to agree to terms with the Russians that Poland would find unacceptable.

A related motive is this conveniently removes the greatest competitor to the new Polish-Danish-Norwegian Baltic Pipeline for the foreseeable future. Norway-Poland Baltic Pipe opens in move to cut Russia gas dependency

As far as anti-Russia rhetoric and suggesting they want boots-on-the-ground, the Polish government is probably #1 on that list.

That said, Russia recently accused the UK of being behind the attack:

Russia accuses British navy of blowing up Nord Stream pipelines, UK slams claim

While making the claim, Russian defence ministry did not give any evidence

www.wionews.com

I do remember back around the time of the attack, a lot of people suspecting the UK, because apparently they like to (I'm paraphrasing) engage in James-bond style sabotage, and this is very consistent with what the UK has done and likes to do. (To be clear, these are other people's statements, and I don't really know enough about the UK to say whether this is accurate)

 

[HalcyonDaze]

Look up the difference in sizes between the Polish-Norwegian gas pipelines, and Norstream 1 & 2. The idea that you'd blow up massive pipelines because you feel threatened by tiny pipelines is absolutely absurd.


If you believe things in the media that are so absurd they can't possibly be true .... then yes, Russia regularly does things that are so absurd they can't possibly be true.

Admittedly, these days I find most media is only good for a basic overview (the Today Show ran a local diving-related story back in July that I bitterly summed up as "senstational unrelated attention-grabbing lead-in, talking head intro, brief sound bites from three or four interested parties on both sides, talking head outro, cut to advertising revenue"); with some common-denominator exceptions there's not the bandwidth in the news cycle for detailed reporting. I try to find more specialized/technical sources when I want details.

Swedish Submarine Rescue Ship Heads To Investigate Pipeline Sabotage

Swedish authorities said the submarine rescue ship was heading out amid reports of a new unexplained surge in gas flowing from one pipeline.

www.thedrive.com

NATO Says All Signs Point To Sabotage Of Baltic Undersea Pipelines

Swedish authorities say they have found a another ruptured section along the two Nord Stream pipelines following apparent attacks this week.

www.thedrive.com

Note this analysis was posted approximately three weeks prior to the Nord Stream explosions; the discussion on energy economics starts around the 33:14 mark and there's a very interesting in hindsight bit concerning Nord Stream 1 at 47:36.



Frankly, having followed things closely since February ... the late Tom Clancy was onto something when he said "The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction has to make sense." I'd say what the Russians have been doing has generally made about as much sense to a rational observer as a man putting his private bits into a blender and keeping his finger on the "Puree" button.

 

[lowwall]

The Russians are going to blame whomever best works for their propaganda purposes. Right now they are trying to drive a wedge between the UK and the EU.

Russia has always banked on the EU letting them get away with this invasion eventually, as happened when they invaded Crimea. By playing on the rift between the UK and EU, they hope to start splintering European support for Ukraine.

 

[lexvil]

F#&% Russia