Hurricane Ivan is next...

[wstein]

The Navy site has Ivan starting to bend towards the west. Again, this is to be taken with a grain of salt as it can wobble back and forth for days.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL_09L.IVAN_ssmi_gif_full.html

Paul

 

[H2Andy]

the Navy track is almost exactly like that of NOAA... but still... you never know

 

[simbrooks]

But it doesnt have the nice shading that is equidistant from the projected path and doesnt give any weighting to the number of models that are suggesting one path over the other, etc, etc. It does however have nice gridlines to show you long and lat predictions, which the NOAA one doesnt (and you have to guess where your city is in the middle of a patch of green FL.

 

[crpntr133]

So how many of you Floridians can go for a dive right out your own back door.?

 

[simbrooks]

I believe it would be something akin to many of the mudholes that we hear are prevalent in your neck of the woods! Any place that didnt have bad viz before is going to be stirred up for the next few weeks it seems.

 

[The Chairman]

Actually, I am waiting for Karl (#11)! He is going to be really nasty!

If it is like the other two Karls I know, there will be LOTS of hot air, but nothing accomplished! Bwahahaha!

 

[H2Andy]

So how many of you Floridians can go for a dive right out your own back door.?

actually, if it keeps raining like it's been today, i am
going to need dive-gear just to get out of bed in the morning.

 

[simbrooks]

actually, if it keeps raining like it's been today, i am
going to need dive-gear just to get out of bed in the morning.

There used to be a phrase about the 90's era "supermodels" that ran like "they wouldnt get out of bed for less than $10 Mil for a show", i would however get out of bed for dive gear, even if its only a grands worth!! I would like diving on my doorstep, however i think the inhabitants of brevard and parts of orange, osceola and seminole counties wouldnt like their land taken away first to get me beachfront

 

[simbrooks]

BTW, 5pm discussion states that it is now heading at 295 deg, which is 15 north of yesterday when it was going 280/285 for most of the time. The model results i am seeing are showing more and more a track towards central FL along the line of Charley or at least up the Gulf coast. They suggest that the hurricane is overcoming the shearing winds that might have been able to slow it down a little. So far what i have heard about this storm is that it is a) the largest storm in recorded history to break north of some latitude (cant recall the latitude) and now b) it is overcoming many things that they thought might slow it down - so its a big sucker who breaks down the obstacles you throw at it, sounds nice to me!

 

[The Chairman]

With my apologies to Kansas and those who love "Dust in the wind"

A stupid hurricane song!
About some drops of water
From the Carribbean Seas
It stays toooooo long!
Everything is crumbling
though we refuse to see!
A State in the wind,
All we are is a State in the wind!

Prepare now!
Ivan is a comin'
and he's terrible!
Better board up your house!
There'll be stuff a flyin'
when he gets here!
A State in the wind,
All we are is a State in the wind!
(Musical interlude)

Close your eyeyeyes!
Even for a moment and your roof is gone!
See the sky!
There are no stars in it, just the angry clouds!
A State in the wind,
All we are is a State in the wind!