Grand Cayman and Hurricane Ivan

[dazedone]

I am leaving for Grand Cayman on Wed, but in looking at the potential 5 day track area (as of 10pm PST Monday) for Hurricane Ivan, it does not look great:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W5+GIF/070303W5.gif

I'm wondering if I should cancel it. The hotel (Cobalt Coast) has no problem with me moving the dates, but the airline would unless Ivan hitting Cayman is immient, which wouldn't be known until later this week.

I'm thinking I just go and use the DAN trip insurance I bought in case things go awry. I would be bored at work since I have everything prepped for being away for week anyway and would be hard for me to juggle my calendar to get another week off again soon.

Realistically, how many days of diving could I potentially lose if Ivan hit Cayman? Being in California, I have never been through a Hurricane. Judging by the thread on Charley, it looks like they fared pretty well on GC.

So I guess my question is: Am I a total idiot for even trying to go over there this week or should I just take my chances and go for it?

 

[zf2nt]

I am leaving for Grand Cayman on Wed, but in looking at the potential 5 day track area (as of 10pm PST Monday) for Hurricane Ivan, it does not look great:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W5+GIF/070303W5.gif

I'm wondering if I should cancel it. The hotel (Cobalt Coast) has no problem with me moving the dates, but the airline would unless Ivan hitting Cayman is immient, which wouldn't be known until later this week.

I'm thinking I just go and use the DAN trip insurance I bought in case things go awry. I would be bored at work since I have everything prepped for being away for week anyway and would be hard for me to juggle my calendar to get another week off again soon.

Realistically, how many days of diving could I potentially lose if Ivan hit Cayman? Being in California, I have never been through a Hurricane. Judging by the thread on Charley, it looks like they fared pretty well on GC.

So I guess my question is: Am I a total idiot for even trying to go over there this week or should I just take my chances and go for it?

I think you're smart to worry about it. This situation does not look good at all. If you read the "Discussion" paper on the NHC page, you'll see the following (as of 2300 on 9/6/04):

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PROVIDED A FIX TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. IVAN IS EXPECTED
TO RESUME A WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE SOON...AS UNIVERSALLY SUGGESTED BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE. DUE IN PART TO A MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION...THE FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
THERE IS A DIFFERENCE OF OPINION IN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AT 96 AND 120 HOURS. THE GFS...UKMET...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE BRING IVAN WELL SOUTH OF CUBA TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENNINSULA. NOGAPS AND THE
GFDL BRING IVAN MUCH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND IS LINE WITH THE CLOSELY PACKED MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS.

What I get out of that is that we really don't know where it's going yet, but two models puts it right near GCM and the other three put it way to the northeast of GCM. So they split the difference, and decided it was going right through my home on Little Cayman!

I think you should quickly figure out the latest date you can make a go/no go decision, and then be prepared to pull the plug at the last minute. If this thing drifts down toward GCM, as two of those forecast models are implying, you're not going to be doing any diving. Guaranteed. Worse, you could easily find yourself in a very expensive pickle. I HAVE been through a few of these things, and it's always the same story: by the time you realize you need to get out of town, it's too late. Then all you can do is buckle down and keep your fingers crossed. So if you can make a decision as late as Wednesday, and on Wednesday you see it is heading for GCM...don't go!

 

[Turtle Gal]

My family and I were at the Cobalt Coast when Charley came by, If I remember right he was 25 miles North and came in around 2:00AM. By 2:00pm it was turning into a beautiful day. The sunset that night was Wonderful. The rain at the Cobalt wasn't bad neither was the wind,Heck my 15yr old son was swimming in the pool while it rained.I say go for it. If it comes that close ,the Cobalt and Divetech will get things ready, and they will do Everything they can to make the guest happy.Divetech even did makeup dives the next day,To ensure that the guest recieved all the dives they wanted.Go and have fun,Turtle gal

 

[dazedone]

My family and I were at the Cobalt Coast when Charley came by, If I remember right he was 25 miles North and came in around 2:00AM. By 2:00pm it was turning into a beautiful day. The sunset that night was Wonderful. The rain at the Cobalt wasn't bad neither was the wind,Heck my 15yr old son was swimming in the pool while it rained.I say go for it. If it comes that close ,the Cobalt and Divetech will get things ready, and they will do Everything they can to make the guest happy.Divetech even did makeup dives the next day,To ensure that the guest recieved all the dives they wanted.Go and have fun,Turtle gal

Thanks for that response. I am leaning towards going. I have been looking forward to this trip for a while. Even if the hurricane does come by all I care about is living through it and being able to get back in the water in a reasonable amount of time. Sounds like cobalt Coast/Divetech knows what is doing. I don't even care if the vis gets messed up. Heck, I'm used to 10-15ft anyway.

Hey a bad weather day on vacation beats working any day

 

[northcoast_diver]

The best time to dive the Caribbean is March through June, when the hurricane season is over for awhile. Otherwise it is always going to be russian roulette.

That is also basically true anywhere around the world. Summertime, in any given latitude, is the best time to dive, weather wise.

 

[CJ's]

It is of course impossible to say exactly what kind of effect Ivan will have on us at this stage; even forecasters with years of experience, very expensive computer models and lots of reconaissance airplanes don't know.
What I can tell you is that it is likely now that there won't be any dive boats going out on either Friday or Saturday, probably extending on to Sunday. If the East End boys are lucky they may be able to dive Friday on the South side as winds are forecast from the North/Northwest. Having said that if they have any sense their boats will probably be tied up safely somewhere in the North Sound.
This also means that shorediving will be impossible.

On the other hand Ivan may miss us totally and things may be life as usual!!

Unfortunately that's why we need insurance!

CJ

 

[scubachica]

Hey, I'm in the same boat. I'm on pins & needles watching the hurricane reports. I'm scheduled to leave bright & early Sat. morning from the East Coast for a long-overdue, much-needed vacation. We're booked at Cobalt Coast too.

How long were you planning to stay there? If we have an overlap, let me know if you end up going so that we can introduce ourselves if we don't have to cancel. If I do have to pull the plug, am thinking about trying to get to Cozumel instead, as rescheduling vacation for a later date this fall will be nearly impossible for me.

 

[Drew Sailbum]

If the East End boys are lucky they may be able to dive Friday on the South side as winds are forecast from the North/Northwest. Having said that if they have any sense their boats will probably be tied up safely somewhere in the North Sound.

I strongly suspect that if this storm holds track as currently forecast missing an extra day of diving will be the least of our worries.

This is one of the East End boys that has absolutely no desire to try to sneak a boat out of Hurricane Hole even one minute early. It is a long run from the North Sound in possibly nasty conditions to get teh boats back out to EE after the storm passes.

 

[northcoast_diver]

I strongly suspect that if this storm holds track as currently forecast missing an extra day of diving will be the least of our worries.

This is one of the East End boys that has absolutely no desire to try to sneak a boat out of Hurricane Hole even one minute early. It is a long run from the North Sound in possibly nasty conditions to get teh boats back out to EE after the storm passes.

It could churn up the reef, in which case the season would be ruined as well. It can take half a decade or more for a reef to recover from a hurricane.

 

[Maladryne]

Charley was barely a Category 2 hurricane when it passed Cayman, and as hurricanes go it was relatively compact. Ivan's just hit Category 4, and is a whole other animal. If you go, consider yourself lucky if all you lose is a single day of diving. There's nothing cool about riding out a hurricane, especially on an island where the highest point above sea level is 60 feet (and that's at the top of the lighthouse in West Bay).