A friend of mine whose sister is a health care worker told me that she said that there is a significant problem with false negative tests. False positive = bad for the testee; false negative = bad for the rest of us.
Cozumel COVID-19 updates
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A friend of mine whose sister is a health care worker told me that she said that there is a significant problem with false negative tests. False positive = bad for the testee; false negative = bad for the rest of us.
I totally get it - I only added it because at first I was like hurray we stayed at 15 then I seen the huge jump in Cancun
I like the day to day comparisons, I really hope the cases in study number is decreasing due to less people being sick.........
My wife is going to try and get down here in 3 or 4 weeks, her card is expired and needs renewed by end of May to stay within the 55 day window, it'll be great to see her but I'm real worried about the traveling - I hear the flights are empty so that's a great bonus but still...... American seems to be coming in on Saturday's, there's no way she's going thru Cancun.
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I have a hunch that they don't test unless they're pretty sure, and maybe people aren't going for help unless they are very ill, my personal habit as well. Here in nearby Hale county with a third of the population as the island, they're reporting 117 tests, 101 negatives, 10 pending, 9 deaths as of Monday with increases since then but I can't find a newer complete report. Dependable test kits are challenging to obtain of course, and many here are avoiding going for help when they should, including for non-Covid-19 causes.
Our state leaders are trying to open business and activities back up across the realm. We'll let you know how that works, but I fear surges.
horn34
Contributor
And AA is pretty cheap right now too.I totally get it - I only added it because at first I was like hurray we stayed at 15 then I seen the huge jump in Cancun
I like the day to day comparisons, I really hope the cases in study number is decreasing due to less people being sick.........
My wife is going to try and get down here in 3 or 4 weeks, her card is expired and needs renewed by end of May to stay within the 55 day window, it'll be great to see her but I'm real worried about the traveling - I hear the flights are empty so that's a great bonus but still...... American seems to be coming in on Saturday's, there's no way she's going thru Cancun.
JenLoves2Dive
Contributor
Dandy - as you probably know, testing here in Cozumel has been very limited. In fact, I've rarely heard that addressed other than by Mexico's Subsecretario de Salud, Hugo López-Gatell. In several public announcements, he has said that and to expect that the numbers should be multiplied by 8x or more.
This is not a Cozumel thing, this is a Mexico thing. It's very frustrating and it angers me, but the reality is, they don't know the numbers. And if someone dies from atypical pneumonia or complications from a systemic disease brought on by COVID19, then it will not be counted toward the numbers as positive for COVID19. That is the reality. Period. It has absolutely nothing to do with the island's image. Hotels, Dive businesses, restaurants, bars, public sports areas, schools, parks, etc., are being completely shuttered. Residents are being asked (for the last month) to stay in their homes and only go out if necessary. There is a mandatory curfew at 8pm and if you are out past that, it is an arrestable offense (36 hours in jail and fines). Mandatory wearing of masks in public at all times and of course social distancing.
In addition, public messages are being released daily on this situation from Pedro Joaquin. I will cut and paste (below) one message that we received just two days ago (April 20) as we were entering into Phase 3. Reminder, that Phase 3 here in Mexico is when they are most likely to see the numbers of cases increase and peak. This is estimated to take about 3-4 weeks.
So please tell me how you think they are worried about any image to the public right now. And just what in the world are you thinking they are trying to "get away with" given how very public all this is. It's really simple. THEY DON"T HAVE ENOUGH TESTS. I have heard of at least 8 that have died from Coronvirus symptoms. Today we are at 2 deaths and 15 positives. Everyone here knows that is impossible and inaccurate. But it is not due to any kind of cover-up, it's due to lack of available testing. I would like to know how they plan to address more testing. Right now, the public hospitals, especially IMSS, are sending their tests out to different locations than the private hospitals Understand these are government hospitals. Some test results have taken weeks to return. If one really wants to see what's going on in Mexico, then just google, IMSS, Mexico and COVID19. It's extremely alarming and this is where the majority of people that are uninsured or low-income go when they are sick. I don't know any more answers than that. But given this statement from Pedro Joaquin's office, I'd say they are being pretty darn clear.
Thank you, my friend. I know you are a huge supporter of this island and the community. I hope to see you again really soon!
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NOTE: PLEASE understand that in this announcement, Pedro Joquin is giving more than one scenario and they are VERY strongly wording this and telling people to stay home. (Which they have not been that cooperative about doing)
Again, we are entering Phase 3, so that means this is the time we will start to see numbers go up (and that's just the ones they test). And, please don't ask me how they came about with this math. I am simply copying and pasting to show you that they are very vocal and public about the possibilities here.
ANNOUNCEMENT (Translated) from the office of Pedro Juaquin D (President of Cozumel)
THE PROJECTION OF CASES FOR COZUMEL; IN LESS THAN A MONTH, COULD REACH 2,500 POSITIVE CASES AND UP TO 200 DEATHS.
Cozumel has one of the highest percentages of COVID-19 transmission, the projection of the disease indicates that if the level of transmission is maintained as in recent days, in a month there could be up to 2,500 positive cases and up to 200 deaths.
The Municipal President of Cozumel Pedro Joaquín Delbouis, released this data a few moments ago via Facebook Live, where he regretted that disobedience is causing a considerable increase in cases, but said that we are in time to prevent this projection from becoming a reality in one month.
"Unfortunately, contagion has increased on the island, this has led us to have a contagion factor of 1.3, which is similar to that of Benito Juárez, who is 1.46," he said.
"The first projection is that if we reach this factor by May 14, we could have more than 200 confirmed cases, and if positive cases increase under the factor 1.46, we would have a substantial increase in the number of deaths."
He said that there is a third scenario that is very worrying, "the one we have had in recent days, where we increased from 10 to 15 cases, our Contagion coefficient is 1.78, which is the highest degree of contagion in the country, it is a trend high, he added.
He explained that If we reach that level of contagion, from May 14 the numbers would be alarming, "We would be talking about 2400 positives in less than a month and the number of deaths to more than 190 on the island.
"We plead with them, we implore them and we demand that they stay at home, the next few days will be crucial for the scenario to have the least projection."
He stressed that in Cozumel the hospital capacity is 100 beds in general in all public and private hospitals, while the capacity for care is only for 200 people and you do not want to arrive on stage.
He stated that in case of reaching that level of cases, the same federal government established a protocol to determine who is given preference in medical care and who is not, so it is extremely important that people stay at home, he insisted.
Likewise, among the new actions, it announced that through a decree issued by the state government, those who do not comply with the instructions issued by the authorities can be arrested with all the powers.
From now on only one person will be able to circulate on a motorcycle and in a car, the use of mouth covers is already mandatory for everyone, without exceptions.
Finally, he said that the only way to avoid increasing cases to any serious scenario is to stay home, "we may not get to that worrying level, but the responsibility falls on ourselves." He pointed out.
(END of Article)
Just to make all of this a little more concerning for all...while Cozumel may be able to (eventually) say that they have a drop in Covid-19 cases (however they measure it), that doesn't mean jack. A tourist destination is only safe for all if the tourists visiting it are clear of the virus. So until this is brought under control world-wide, the residents of Cozumel are at risk if opened to tourism.
JenLoves2Dive
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horn34
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horn34
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