When will Coz re-open?

[WetInPortland]

How long do you think we can stop the world before that causes more deaths than the coronavirus? I think we will find we already exceeded that time.

I agree that's what seems to be happening, but I would argue that it didn't have to play out that way. Probably too late now, though, even if there was the political will to take a different tack.

 

[WetInPortland]

Biggest question for me now is, what about October 2020..?

Ah, now we're getting somewhere. The virus will still be around; a vaccine is unlikely by then, but there may be some anti-viral treatments. But divers are particularly at risk of (potentially undetected) long term lung damage that would disqualify diving.

So, who's willing to climb into a small metal tube with 100-200 strangers, masks or no, to get to Cozumel? And after that, I'm sure everyone can imagine the impracticality of masks and social distancing in most tropical vacation activities/scenarios. There are a little over seven billion people on earth, and probably about as many ways that people will assess the risk.

This is the implicit ambiguity in the original question.

 

[ggunn]

IMO it is silly to argue about something that can only be known in hindsight. How and when things will reopen (on Cozumel as well as everywhere else) and what the effect of the reopening will be will (quite possibly it will be to touch off a new wave of the disease and shut everything right back down) can only be seen clearly in the rear view mirror. There are just too many unknowns.

 

[ggunn]

Remember the first SARS and MERS both were coronaviruses and both disappeared (I think in a summer time) and never reappeared as additional waves.

Neither have completely disappeared. MERS is still around (About MERS) and SARS still has a non-zero probability of re-emerging in human populations (WHO | SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome)). Both have higher mortality rates but neither are as human-to-human contagious as the current virus (How do SARS and MERS compare with COVID-19?).

The epidemiology is different for the three viruses; you can't predict what COVID-19 will do based on MERS and SARS.

 

[ggunn]

10%?

IMO, with all the unknowns in this outbreak, assigning a probability of catching the disease in any given environment is at best a WAG.

 

[dbernard01]

I'm not smart enough nor do I have a crystal ball that will determine when Coz will/should open. It's truly a rock and a hard place scenario between two diametrically opposed forces. Sort of reminds me of the movie "Jaws"...the scientists/oceanographers/marine biologists were saying 'stay out of the water', while the merchants and Chamber of Commerce were downplaying the shark threat cuz it was eating into the tourism business. (No pun intended).

I would, however, LOVE to be one of the first divers in the water once the marine park opens, just to see whether the lack of cruise ship traffic has improved the health of the reef.

I was in Cozumel the week before they closed the Southern reefs with my dive buddies and back the week after they reopened with my daughter. Reefs and marine line seemed better after the closure but it was also January vs. September.

Currently booked for 7/7 with fingers crossed!

 

[BRT]

IMO it is silly to argue about something that can only be known in hindsight. How and when things will reopen (on Cozumel as well as everywhere else) and what the effect of the reopening will be will (quite possibly it will be to touch off a new wave of the disease and shut everything right back down) can only be seen clearly in the rear view mirror. There are just too many unknowns.

Might be silly to have an opinion, but.... I think it highly unlikely that you can load people from all over the world into aluminum tubes using check-in lines and security lines and fly those people into a resort destination where they will mingle, eat, drink and play with all the other people, without having this contagious virus rebound. until we have reached herd immunity either via enough people having had it or a vaccine.

 

[ggunn]

Might be silly to have an opinion, but.... I think it highly unlikely that you can load people from all over the world into aluminum tubes using check-in lines and security lines and fly those people into a resort destination where they will mingle, eat, drink and play with all the other people, without having this contagious virus rebound. until we have reached herd immunity either via enough people having had it or a vaccine.

You get it that I was agreeing with you, don't you? What I referred to as being silly is arguing over when it will be possible to reopen Cozumel to tourism when no one has a clue, and opening it up too soon will only result in a resurgence of the disease and shutting the island down again.

 

[BRT]

You get it that I was agreeing with you, don't you? What I referred to as being silly is arguing over when it will be possible to reopen Cozumel to tourism when no one has a clue, and opening it up too soon will only result in a resurgence of the disease and shutting the island down again.

"until we have reached herd immunity either via enough people having had it or a vaccine."
I'm looking ahead.

 

[wgw04024]

Everyone who says and has the authority to decide 'don't open to soon' and 'when to open', is getting paid.

Fortunately, I'm in a position where myself, extended family, and kids are all in positions where we are getting paid too.

I cannot imagine it for people who aren't. Although for now, unemployment and the federal stimulus is a pretty good (more profitable) deal for some/many.

When this is over, think of how much we're going to save in social security benefits and medicare.