When will Coz re-open?

[ChuckP]

yes. just was not sure why people were still debating when it would open. i posted this earlier in the thread. maybe they did not see/ read it.

Because like anything else, it's wishful/hoping thinking as of today. Cancun was named one of the top five hotspots in Mexico in the last few days, active cases has risen pretty steadily at around 7% per day for the last two weeks...... There is not one single thing or statistic that says we are any better today than last week.

We have to go back to reality at some point but what happens when we get an uptick in cases in some city? Slow test results here and this could be right back to bad before anyone even knows it.

 

[dflaher]

I'm not smart enough nor do I have a crystal ball that will determine when Coz will/should open. It's truly a rock and a hard place scenario between two diametrically opposed forces. Sort of reminds me of the movie "Jaws"...the scientists/oceanographers/marine biologists were saying 'stay out of the water', while the merchants and Chamber of Commerce were downplaying the shark threat cuz it was eating into the tourism business. (No pun intended).

I would, however, LOVE to be one of the first divers in the water once the marine park opens, just to see whether the lack of cruise ship traffic has improved the health of the reef.

 

[nwflyboy]

You never answered how long we have to stay locked inside until it is safe to come out.

And therein is exactly the problem with your "logic" (such as it is): It's utterly stupid to simply pick some random date.

"The churches will be full by easter. I think that would be great!"

"We should open on June 1st!"

Go ahead, pick any date. They are all equally stupid. Because you do not (and any rational person should not) simply pull some random date out of their ass and pronounce it as the right time to open. Because it's based on what - how things feel inside their ass?

You "open" when the circumstances - real world conditions and DATA - tell you it's safe to do so. Unless you just don't care how many people die.

Otherwise, you are just closing your eyes, plugging your ears and screaming LA LA LA LA LA I CAN'T HEAR YOU, pretending you have some clue about what's going on, and shooting guns in random directions in a dark room.

As best I can tell, there is virtually no testing taking place on Cozumel at all (statistically speaking, not enough to have a clue about what's going on). Nobody has the slightest idea how many people are currently infected, or how fast it's spreading now, even how many people are being killed by it. The best "data" available is made by making guesses based on anecdotes and tiny scraps of real but obviously mostly incomplete data. How in god's name is it responsible to make public health decisions based on essentially zero information? In the real world, facts matter.

Lets say there's a flight leaving for Cozumel tomorrow. The plane has a blind flight crew, they've never flown a jet before, and none of the instruments on the plane are working - no navigation instruments, no instrument landing system, nothing, and the flight is going to take off at night, point south, and hope that it comes to a nice safe landing in Cozumel based on instinct or something. Would you get on that plane? I sure as hell wouldn't. Not very different from suggesting a date to "open" and welcome tourists.

Making decisions on ending lockdowns in a pandemic when there is essentially no real information on the spread of the virus, especially where you have a tiny number of ICU beds, is about as smart as getting on that plane with blind pilots and no instruments. It's fecking crazy, irresponsible, and unless you are reeeeeealy lucky, is going to result in a catastrophe.

So go ahead, get on that plane. Pick a date next week or next month to open everything up. With smart planning like that, this would be a good time to invest in a company that makes coffins.

Good luck.

 

[horn34]

Lets say there's a flight leaving for Cozumel tomorrow. The plane has a blind flight crew, they've never flown a jet before, and none of the instruments on the plane are working - no navigation instruments, no instrument landing system, nothing, and the flight is going to take off at night, point south, and hope that it comes to a nice safe landing in Cozumel based on instinct or something. Would you get on that plane? I sure as hell wouldn't. Not very different from suggesting a date to "open" and welcome tourists.

That's a really stupid analogy.

Assuming the blind crew gets the plane in the air, you have about a 90% chance of dying in a fiery crash.

Even if there are 1000 COVID-19 infected patients standing in the immigration line at the Cozumel airport, sneezing in to every new arrival's face, your chances of dying are still under 10%.

 

[BRT]

That's a really stupid analogy.

Assuming the blind crew gets the plane in the air, you have about a 90% chance of dying in a fiery crash.

Even if there are 1000 COVID-19 infected patients standing in the immigration line at the Cozumel airport, sneezing in to every new arrival's face, your chances of dying are still under 10%.

10%?

 

[ReefHound]

And therein is exactly the problem with your "logic" (such as it is): It's utterly stupid to simply pick some random date.

"The churches will be full by easter. I think that would be great!"

"We should open on June 1st!"

Go ahead, pick any date. They are all equally stupid. Because you do not (and any rational person should not) simply pull some random date out of their ass and pronounce it as the right time to open. Because it's based on what - how things feel inside their ass?

You "open" when the circumstances - real world conditions and DATA - tell you it's safe to do so. Unless you just don't care how many people die.

Setting aside your rude insults, the simple fact of life is that people are not going to tolerate "indefinitely". If you can't provide a date then you had better explicitly define the data and a roadmap to get there. People are tired of being lied to. When they initially rolled out voluntary "social distancing" guidelines they made people believe that would be enough when they knew darned well they would move to mandatory lockdowns. They just wanted to ease people into it. And they darned well knew all the lockdowns that initially were "until early April" would be extended, and soon became "end of April", so now many are wanting to hold them to it.

If we still have "no real information on the spread of the virus" after 3 months then when exactly are we going to get it?

 

[rick00001967]

Because like anything else, it's wishful/hoping thinking

this post was dated april 30. so are we thinking perhaps they will back off from this commitment

 

[Ukmc]

10%?

Probably closer to 0.5% if you test everybody. And 80% of fatalities will come from 70 year olds or older...
5-10% , however, can get really sick and require hospital care.
Remember the first SARS and MERS both were coronaviruses and both disappeared (I think in a summer time) and never reappeared as additional waves.
I will keep fingers crossed...

 

[WetInPortland]

I would, however, LOVE to be one of the first divers in the water once the marine park opens, just to see whether the lack of cruise ship traffic has improved the health of the reef.

Or if the unchecked lion fish population has caused a decline.

 

[WetInPortland]

Go ahead, pick any date. They are all equally stupid. Because you do not (and any rational person should not) simply pull some random date out of their ass and pronounce it as the right time to open.

If there were no data, I would agree with you. However, there is data. The Health Ministry is sending that data up the chain of command and that's driving the government announcements of June 1 to start reopening the economy. What concerns me is that there is almost no discussion about subsequent waves of infections, and there will almost certainly be more waves of infection, possibly for years.

To be fair, all the government officials are saying that continued use of masks and social distancing will be very important to minimize future infections, but it remains to be seen how effective that will be or what changes will be made in that regard. It's hard for me to imagine one of the Fury snorkeling tour catamarans that usually has 100+ guests handing out masks and operating at 25% capacity. Same for dive boats.

As best I can tell, there is virtually no testing taking place on Cozumel at all (statistically speaking, not enough to have a clue about what's going on).

It's really discouraging to see this myth perpetuated again and again. Rather than rehash why this is not true, I'll just say that publishing statistics is at best a secondary concern for the goverment. The primary purpose of the statistics is to inform the government's decisions. Mexico's approach is different than many other countries. It may be better, it may be worse, it may be the best they can do in a relatively poor country. Only history will be able to make that determination.