What are the chances that TS Rina will blow out out diving later this week or worse

[Christi]

I don't think the concern is about people canceling or postponing their arrivals scheduled yesterday, today or tomorrow. It's the ones canceling now for arrivals in the days to follow it's projected landfall and those encouraging it without knowing what the outcome is to be. Especially if you consider that 2005 was the single most active hurricane season on record. Whatever was going on, the Eastern Caribbean was an incubator for any tropical depression. The 2011 season is a month shy from being over but these 2 track maps speak form themselves:

EXACTLY! As I said earlier, I encouraged my people arriving yesterday and today to postpone and also advised thoe I had on the island to try to get out if possible. But again, those with trips scheduled to arrive AFTER the storm passes us still have time to make a decision. Flights can be cancelled or changed up to the last minute under these circumstances with no penalty.

You stated there is "talk" it might not even be a hurricane by the time it arrives. What talk? Did you shake up your magic 8 ball to get that statement? The quote I provided was a factual update provided by a weather website that looks like the same statements issued by NOAA. How do you know I am not posting these updates for people I know on the island?

Ummm - Chief is completely right - it may very well only be a Tropical storm when it passes us - and even if a Cat 1, depending on where the eye passes, we may only get tropical storm winds. You like to post the doom and gloom about what our fate is here, but you seem to miss the details in your quest to be the voice of extreme pessimism.

 

[WSOPFAN]

For those interested......stormpulse.com has the path going directly over the island now NOT up the channel. If it does not weaken any further winds will be 75-85 with gusts to 105. Looks like landfall will be Thursday around 2-3PM. I forgot who posted the link to that site but thx....cool site.

 

[divingpyrate]

Just stating the obvious. Historical storm tracks are good for an understanding of how things work seasonally.
My source is the National Weather Service, and they update the map constantly.
Since I posted invest97 has been dissolved, that is the only area of remote concern besides Rita, and a disturbance in the Atlantic.
All respectable models show that disturbance going out to sea.

 

[divingpyrate]

opps I stand corrected, the Navy has dropped invest 97 NHC still shows it on the map with a 10% chance to develop

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
RINA...LOCATED ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

1. DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

 

[divingpyrate]

We just heard from our wedding planner and Eagle Ray.
Things are looking good so far, but they are going to get back with us on the other side of the storm.

Take care all, we will keep praying

 

[cvchief]

Not to be the voice of opposition, but this kind of attitude can cut both ways.

I don't think the concern is about people canceling or postponing their arrivals scheduled yesterday, today or tomorrow. It's the ones canceling now for arrivals in the days to follow it's projected landfall and those encouraging it without knowing what the outcome is to be.

Exactly. Its the people coming after. I mean they might be diving Saturday. The example of Wilma is most extreme example. Wasn't it the worst every in some fashion?


As to the electric being cut off, DD have you ever looked closely at the service lines? I have a friend who is an electric co risk manager and I like to email her photos of some of them. Freaks her out. So its probably a good idea to cut the power. I hate to think how far it is to a breaker..... So now, STOP worrying so much about the hurricane and START worrying about dying from CO from the generators during the power outage....

 

[cvchief]

For those interested......stormpulse.com has the path going directly over the island now NOT up the channel. If it does not weaken any further winds will be 75-85 with gusts to 105. Looks like landfall will be Thursday around 2-3PM. I forgot who posted the link to that site but thx....cool site.

Nice! Keep turning baby! I did post on the hurricane board that Cuba had 2 for 1 on Mojitos Friday morning only. I think Rina is falling for it....

 

[WSOPFAN]

Ummm - Chief is completely right - it may very well only be a Tropical storm when it passes us - and even if a Cat 1, depending on where the eye passes, we may only get tropical storm winds. You like to post the doom and gloom about what our fate is here, but you seem to miss the details in your quest to be the voice of extreme pessimism.

My posts are for those interested.....if you are not then save your comments......I know people who would rather have the truth about pending serious weather rather than guesses especially when it has to do with thousands of dollars involved in travel not to mention the heartache involved with said travel. The fact that you would even encourage anyone to go anywhere near a location before, during, or shortly after a hurricane is laughable and I am not the only person who thinks so. There are some who think weather reports to a travel destination that has an approaching hurricane are valuable so if you choose to call them doom and gloom reports I guess you better lay the blame where it originates.......with mother nature. BTW My post earlier about the shipwrecks on the east coast....I never said Wilma caused them I said the wrecks that were there became more visible after the storm.

 

[cvchief]

My posts are for those interested.....if you are not then save your comments......I know people who would rather have the truth about pending serious weather rather than guesses especially when it has to do with thousands of dollars involved in travel not to mention the heartache involved with said travel. The fact that you would even encourage anyone to go anywhere near a location before, during, or shortly after a hurricane is laughable and I am not the only person who thinks so. There are some who think weather reports to a travel destination that has an approaching hurricane are valuable so if you choose to call them doom and gloom reports I guess you better lay the blame where it originates.......with mother nature. BTW My post earlier about the shipwrecks on the east coast....I never said Wilma caused them I said the wrecks that were there became more visible after the storm.

Ok, Calm down a bit. You are in danger of becoming a Cat 2 yourself. Let is consider the possibilities as they stand in each extreme:

1. Storm intensifies and become horrible and tears the H outta thing. Friday, Joe Tourist calls his airline and gets a refund.
2. Storm continues to wuss out and becomes a tropical storm. Joe Tourist arrives and has a great time diving, hanging in town and throwing his pesos around. Locals are happy cuz they lost money this week.

So what's wrong with that? :cool3:

Again early on, Mr. Gloomy Gus, you said and I quote, "At some point flights will be canceled and not started again for days and tourists will be stuck there." (Emphasis added) You wanna define "days" and we can bet on it? oker: Flights were landing today.

Even DD moved on to CO poisoning!

 

[Mike]

For those interested......stormpulse.com has the path going directly over the island now NOT up the channel. If it does not weaken any further winds will be 75-85 with gusts to 105. Looks like landfall will be Thursday around 2-3PM. I forgot who posted the link to that site but thx....cool site.

Aw crap, he's right, the Cozumel radio station live web cam picture just changed to :

never mind, that's actually looking outside my office window here :depressed:

oops, sorry about that