What are the chances that TS Rina will blow out out diving later this week or worse

[DandyDon]

While the pressure of the storm has dropped slightly from 971 yesterday to 967 today, the shear is playing havoc with it. At this point I do not see the storm hitting the island as a Cat 3.

Just changed to arrive as a 2.

 

[Harro10]

Right now is the calmest weather we have had since arriving last Thursday. That should be changing soon.

 

[Mike]

Christi, thanks for the posts. I'm scheduled to arrive on Sun 10/30, so it would seem likely that the storm will be gone by then and the plane can get in. I've never gone diving anywhere so soon after a hurricane, so I'm wondering what the dive conditions are likely to be--especially visibility. Is there likely to be a lot of sand and debris churned up that will affect visibility? If so, how long does it take for it to clear up? Thanks much.

I think a lot of your diving experience is yet to be determined. Some of it is going to be determined by how this all plays out, how much of a storm this actually finishes as and how close it comes to the island. After that, not having any actual experience in diving after a hurricane but thinking about the geography of the island and the reefs, I'd venture the shallower sites will have lower visibility then the deeper ones, the southern sites should be better also. Unlike other islands, I don't think run off plays much of a part in effecting visibility that much there.

Don's map on page one now looks like most of the possible tracks show it heading north of the island.

I think we need to start being more worried about Isla Mujeres now. That dang island is so small, there is one place where you can stand and see the water on both sides, and it's so low I think a big enough wave might splash from one side to the other.

 

[deeper thoughts]

Wednesday morning update! Final preparations rushing to completion today. The government has imposed a 6pm curfew for tonight as they do for every Hurricane. This time tomorrow morning, it should be windy and rainy as Rina's front side approaches. I am hopeful that she will cruise right on through quickly.

Current weather is weird! Haha! We had pouring down rain a few minutes ago, now there are some patches of sun and blue sky (very small patches). This is the calm before the storm - but again, I am so proud of the island - most of us, particularly the veterans are just about ready and those that are first timers to this "H" stuff are getting help, advice and comfort from us that have done this before!

I am going to have a full house of Hurricane rookies - 6 adults (including me), 2 children (5 & 7), 4 dogs and 2 cats - so wish me luck with that! Haha!

Best of luck

 

[budaman]

Little bit of better news with this latest forecast.




000
WTNT43 KNHC 261457
TCDAT3

HURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011
1000 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2011

RINA HAS A SOMEWHAT RAGGED APPEARANCE THIS MORNING. THE EYE IS NOT
APPARENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND DATA FROM THE RADARS AT BELIZE
CITY AND ON THE TRMM SATELLITE SUGGEST THE EYEWALL HAS LOST SOME
DEFINITION. WHILE THE EYEWALL CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE COLDER
THAN -80C...THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CYCLONE HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN
ADDITION...THE OUTFLOW HAS DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND
ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST 15-20 KT
OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT
95 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT THIS COULD BE GENEROUS AND IT IS
QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ABOUT TO
REACH THE STORM WILL FIND RINA HAS WEAKENED.

THE RECENT CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT RINA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE
RIGHT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW
290/4. RINA IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH A
STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE TO ITS EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGES TO THE NORTH AND WEST TO WEAKEN DURING
THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS AS A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD
CAUSE RINA TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
PART OF THE FORECAST...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
OLD ONE. AFTER 72 HOURS...RINA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT WHERE THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO STEER THE
CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO STEER IT
SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS SHOULD CAUSE RINA TO SHEAR
APART...BUT THE MODELS DISAGREE ON WHEN THIS WILL HAPPEN AND THUS
ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK. THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN WEAKEN RINA VERY QUICKLY AND KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANT
NEAR YUCATAN...WHILE THE GFDL FORECASTS A STRONGER CYCLONE TO CROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE OTHER MODELS ARE BETWEEN
THESE EXTREMES. THE LATTER PORTION OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND
NOGAPS MODELS. HOWEVER...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

SINCE THE OUTFLOW IS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THE SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER...IT APPEARS THAT RINA HAS RUN OUT
OF TIME TO INTENSIFY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE
HURRICANE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WITH A
FASTER WEAKENING AT 36-48 HOURS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY OF JUST HOW QUICKLY RINA WILL SHEAR APART OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO...THE FORECAST KEEPS RINA A HURRICANE THROUGH 72
HOURS AND A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 120 HOURS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN MUCH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 17.9N 85.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 18.5N 86.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 19.5N 87.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 20.8N 87.1W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
48H 28/1200Z 22.0N 87.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 29/1200Z 23.0N 85.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 23.5N 83.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 31/1200Z 23.5N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

 

[scubawife]

Wednesday morning update! Final preparations rushing to completion today. The government has imposed a 6pm curfew for tonight as they do for every Hurricane. This time tomorrow morning, it should be windy and rainy as Rina's front side approaches. I am hopeful that she will cruise right on through quickly.

Current weather is weird! Haha! We had pouring down rain a few minutes ago, now there are some patches of sun and blue sky (very small patches). This is the calm before the storm - but again, I am so proud of the island - most of us, particularly the veterans are just about ready and those that are first timers to this "H" stuff are getting help, advice and comfort from us that have done this before!

I am going to have a full house of Hurricane rookies - 6 adults (including me), 2 children (5 & 7), 4 dogs and 2 cats - so wish me luck with that! Haha!

Wow, that is a full house! Based on the latest forecasts, I think the real brunt of the hurricane effects will be taking place in your house with the kids and pets.

Rina doesn't have a well formed eye, it's still all closed in with clouds. They're saying 8-16 inches of rain from this evening through Fri. Strongest winds near the center are around 110mph, further out from the center the winds are 75-80mph sustained. The weather gurus are predicting Rina will not get any stronger then she is now (a strong 2), and they expect to see weakening as the system approaches land.

I'll be cheering on the norte that's in the process of fighting with Rina. If the norte can put up a good fight, Rina will definitely weaken.

I think you guys have had more rain in non-hurricane storms. 70-80mph winds will do rip up some foliage and do some superficial damage, but I think you all will be fine. The real issue, imo, will be the 5-7 ft surge predicted. That will make a mess of beaches and the waterfront areas. Hopefully the wind and waves don't get too fierce and the waterfront properties come through it all just fine.

Maybe Rina can take out heaps of lionfish!

 

[Jax]

Also, why wish 'good luck' to our Coz friends? Isn't that jinxing? That's like wishing 'good luck' to Montreal on the eve of a major snow storm.
This isn't a once-in-a-lifetime event. These aren't Virginians that have built irresponsible housing directly on the beach.
Mexicans have dealt with hurricanes since, oh, like, forever?

Just because they have hurricanes more often, we should not wish them prayers and well wishes for safety? :w-t-f:

That's as ugly as saying a rape victim should lay back and enjoy it. Just mean.

 

[Zman96]

Hopefully that weakly developed eye wall will get sheered by the incoming Norte.
Christi nice full house, sounds like you have your hands full.:shocked2:

 

[DandyDon]

Isn't Isla Mujeres just a sandbar? I hope everyone there is evacuating. I guess the Cancun shelters will fill tonight and tomorrow, and there will be those arriving today saying "What hurricane?"

Right now is the calmest weather we have had since arriving last Thursday. That should be changing soon.

I got to ask? Why didn't you leave?

 

[Karibelle]

I'll be cheering on the norte that's in the process of fighting with Rina. If the norte can put up a good fight, Rina will definitely weaken.

It's not often that we're cheering for the norte... but right now we all are!