Tropical Depression 2

[ggunn]

I take insurance out during hurricane season for precisely this reason. Never had to use it. We've dodged a few 'canes over the years either just before arriving or after our trip. This system doesn't look like it's going to do much for several days (if it does anything at all) so, if it does get named, I doubt it would happen in time to pull the plug on the trip. It sure looks like it will mean a bunch a lousy weather though.

We were on Cozumel June 18 - July 2, and there were THREE tropical weather events during our stay. The first was what became TS Alberto, a few days later an unnamed tropical wave came through, and then we got out just ahead of Beryl. It rained nearly every day and the port was closed for four of our scheduled dive days. We still had a great time.

 

[Dave Dillehay]

We were on Cozumel June 18 - July 2, and there were THREE tropical weather events during our stay. The first was what became TS Alberto, a few days later an unnamed tropical wave came through, and then we got out just ahead of Beryl. It rained nearly every day and the port was closed for four of our scheduled dive days. We still had a great time.

Hey guys, it is best to remember that where the eye of the storm hits is the most important thing, and that it is a very big ocean and Cozumel is pretty small. The last one through was Beryl and the Cat 4 eye hit at Tuluum, with absolutely no damage on Cozumel...but hit us in Texas as a Cat 1 eye with ridiculous damage which is still showing. I don't remember the year but we had a Cat 4 eye touch the south end of Cozumel with no damage in town.

It is the Eye Wall, which is pretty small and if it does not hit Cozumel...ho hum!

Dave Dillehay

 

[ggunn]

Hey guys, it is best to remember that where the eye of the storm hits is the most important thing, and that it is a very big ocean and Cozumel is pretty small. The last one through was Beryl and the Cat 4 eye hit at Tuluum, with absolutely no damage on Cozumel...but hit us in Texas as a Cat 1 eye with ridiculous damage which is still showing. I don't remember the year but we had a Cat 4 eye touch the south end of Cozumel with no damage in town.

It is the Eye Wall, which is pretty small and if it does not hit Cozumel...ho hum!

Dave Dillehay

Did I mention that we still had a great time?

 

[ggunn]

Those are just the two and seven day cyclonic probabilities, and it's what every tropical storm looks like early on. The analysis says that it will likely encounter conditions more favorable for development later this week. It may dissipate, or it could develop into a Cat 5 storm, or it could get to be something in between. It certainly bears watching.

At the moment it looks like it is dissipating,

 

[Shawn C]

Hey guys, it is best to remember that where the eye of the storm hits is the most important thing, and that it is a very big ocean and Cozumel is pretty small. The last one through was Beryl and the Cat 4 eye hit at Tuluum, with absolutely no damage on Cozumel...but hit us in Texas as a Cat 1 eye with ridiculous damage which is still showing. I don't remember the year but we had a Cat 4 eye touch the south end of Cozumel with no damage in town.

It is the Eye Wall, which is pretty small and if it does not hit Cozumel...ho hum!

Dave Dillehay

It was a strong Cat 2 at landfall, not a 4. The current system has diminished into a nothing burger. Which makes me very happy as we land in 36 hours .

 

[ggunn]

It was a strong Cat 2 at landfall, not a 4. The current system has diminished into a nothing burger. Which makes me very happy as we land in 36 hours .

As Dave has pointed out and as the people of Houston know all too well, the eyewall of even a Cat 1 storm can cause a lot of wind damage. The area we were watching over the last few days has dropped below the threshold of concern for the NHC, although it still is an area of rain just east of Honduras, and this morning there is a new area ESE of Haiti on their 7 day outlook. 'Tis the season...

 

[ggunn]

As Dave has pointed out and as the people of Houston know all too well, the eyewall of even a Cat 1 storm can cause a lot of wind damage. The area we were watching over the last few days has dropped below the threshold of concern for the NHC, although it still is an area of rain just east of Honduras, and this morning there is a new area ESE of Haiti on their 7 day outlook. 'Tis the season...

That one is gone but now there is another.

 

[DandyDon]

That one is gone but now there is another.

The storm formally known as Tropical Depression 2 is still causing major flooding, the biggest risk overall with these storms, well into the northern states. The yellow X off of the Cabo Verde islands could ride the trade winds to anywhere on this side of the pond.

 

[ggunn]

That one is gone but now there is another.

It has been upgraded to 40% in two days and 80% in seven.

 

[JFS]

It has been upgraded to 40% in two days and 80% in seven.

Its not gonna make it to Cozumel. Its going north up east coast.