Thoughts on the future of Sharm

[Red Sea Shadow]

Hundreds of thousands of people will be left unemployed and starving but this doesn't apparently matter to the American or British governments who've spent trillions of dollars waging war against countries they don't understand but perceive as a threat so why should it matter to Saudi, or Egypt...

It matters to us, because they're our own people. And actually there are contingency plans, but this us not the proper place to discuss that.

I'll not comment on your "religious insights" since you asked not to go through this, but I assure you what you've written is not correct.

 

[Doubler]

Crowley I have a deep respect for the Egyptian people as I have worked directly with the Egyptian Navy since 1993 as a trainer. I trained a group of Egyptian officers from the time they were young LTs to now when many of them are Captains and Commodores. They refer to me as their American father a title of love and respect. I have had all of them to my house for meals, conversation and a good cigar. People that don't know these people only go by what is on the news and the news is showing a dangerous situation in that country. I would still feel safer walking the streets of Alex than Seattle but I would not let my wife walk alone there and that is the issue. I'm positive my wife would never return if she was forced to wear a Burka, she does wear long sleeves and a head scarf when there but I believe if the MB takes over things will go hard over for a while until it goes back to the center. Think I'd be packing my seabag shipmate.

 

[Crowley]

Shadow - I'm not talking about the people, I'm talking about the governments and my "religious insights" are that governments are cynically using religion as an excuse to make money. You're right, the debate about religion has no place here, but I wasn't debating religion, I was debating the future of a country and a people I love very much who are being exploited and what it means for those of us who work in the tourist industry, be they Egyptian or foreign. And I assure you, I meant no disrespect in that regard and you should go back and read my post again.

My concern is for the future of Egypt, and also, very selfishly, for my own life here as a foreign dive guide and instructor. We want to stay here, we love it here, but it's becoming more and more difficult to do so. If it all goes wrong then most of the Egyptians that I work with are going to be left without jobs and me - well I can go back to being an IT guy somewhere in Europe, but a lot of these guys, the boat crews and the tank boys - this is the only life they have known for 20 or more years in some cases, and maybe this will be taken away from them. What do they do next?

I am also making contingency plans to leave; the future is uncertain. My point is that it doesn't really matter whether I stay or go, but if tourists stop coming to Egypt, it will have a huge effect on the number of people employed in this industry, if not to the financial status of the nation as a whole.

And Doubler is right - people don't want to come here, because they think it is unsafe. It's not, but when the BBC and CNN or whatever are reporting bad things, then tourists won't come. Already the business is down, and this affects more Egyptians than foreigners and I want to see it fixed - for everybody.

But I think our time here is limited now - and at least my cat still loves me

Cheers

C.

 

[Red Sea Shadow]

Shadow - I'm not talking about the people, I'm talking about the governments and my "religious insights" are that governments are cynically using religion as an excuse to make money. You're right, the debate about religion has no place here, but I wasn't debating religion, I was debating the future of a country and a people I love very much who are being exploited and what it means for those of us who work in the tourist industry, be they Egyptian or foreign. And I assure you, I meant no disrespect in that regard and you should go back and read my post again.

My concern is for the future of Egypt, and also, very selfishly, for my own life here as a foreign dive guide and instructor. We want to stay here, we love it here, but it's becoming more and more difficult to do so. If it all goes wrong then most of the Egyptians that I work with are going to be left without jobs and me - well I can go back to being an IT guy somewhere in Europe, but a lot of these guys, the boat crews and the tank boys - this is the only life they have known for 20 or more years in some cases, and maybe this will be taken away from them. What do they do next?

I am also making contingency plans to leave; the future is uncertain. My point is that it doesn't really matter whether I stay or go, but if tourists stop coming to Egypt, it will have a huge effect on the number of people employed in this industry, if not to the financial status of the nation as a whole.

And Doubler is right - people don't want to come here, because they think it is unsafe. It's not, but when the BBC and CNN or whatever are reporting bad things, then tourists won't come. Already the business is down, and this affects more Egyptians than foreigners and I want to see it fixed - for everybody.

But I think our time here is limited now - and at least my cat still loves me

Cheers

C.

I didn't mention any religious disrespect from your side, yet your thoughts about the governments (for instance the Saudi and the bridge thing) is simply not correct.

Regarding the tourism and the potential unemployment, it's a long story. What I tried to highlight is that there are contingency plans. Actually the issue is way more complicated than what it seems to be, yet we believe it's manageable.

 

[macrobubble]

Regarding the tourism and the potential unemployment, it's a long story. What I tried to highlight is that there are contingency plans.

I think a lot of people here would love to read what these should be. Or is it a state´s secret or some secret conspiracy...?

 

[Red Sea Shadow]

I think a lot of people here would love to read what these should be. Or is it a state´s secret or some secret conspiracy...?

It's not a secret but it's a long story. To cut it short, all the Egyptian GDP sources are "not local", meaning that they all depend on foreigners (tourism, Suez canal, etc...). This poses a major threat in case other countries are "not happy" about our policies, directions or country identity (which we're trying to preserve). Not to mention the other "impulsive" threats like Somali "pirates", some maniacs that frequently propagate false security alerts, particularly in the Sinai region, etc...

This status has been reached because of the former regime's tourism "encouragement" policy. In parallel, there was absolutely no incentives to other areas like agriculture, etc... In conclusion, a major re-structure in the country's macroeconomics is in the oven.

 

[macrobubble]

In conclusion, a major re-structure in the country's macroeconomics is in the oven.

Yeah, diversification is a great thing, alas, it doesn´t and can not happen overnight!
Furthermore - it´ll cost a great deal of money. Where should that come from? Egypt has depleted its financial resources by about 1/3 during the last 6 months to subsidize basic commodities. If the current government wouldn´t have done that, you´ll see huge demonstrations in cairo ontop of the current ones! And, stupidely, they´ve refused foreign financial aid (loans). So, you will need foreign investments (again!) for any venturing into new economic areas.
Then: You would need the technology to implement new economic strategies. Egypt doesn´t have that and, again, they cost money.
Infrastructure (roads, trains, power supplies etc.) for manufacturing enterprises is needed. You would need to ship cargo around Egypt when manufacturing whatever. Land resources are limited in term of acriculture. In this field you can not employ an additional couple of millions. That only leaves other areas of manufacturing, wherein you would compete with Asia (much cheaper work force, much better education, much higher work ethics). Therefore, if not to compete with the asian market, you would have to venture into higher technological product - which is completely out of the question under existing circumstances.
Whatever industries you would want to establish, you would need a much better educated, gigantic work force (if it was to replace the tourism industry) - which simply isn´t available with a 40% to 50% illiteracy rate!

So, you are talking about a reeaaalllllyyy long term plan! Say, a generation at least - I´d say even more than that.
Those are nice, but unreal dreams for the solution of your short term problems! It simply won´t work within a time frame that is reasonable. If the tourism industry is damaged or, worse, destroyed, there is nothing to replace it for years to come! Then you will see a real uprising, when millions of mouths can not be fed any longer!

Stop kidding yourselves: Egypt is completely dependend on foreign money for the forseeable future. That means tourism, tourism and tourism. You simply don´t have anything to sell but sea, sand, sun and a great history. Face the facts...

 

[Red Sea Shadow]

And, stupidely, they´ve refused foreign financial aid (loans).

This is one of the very few RIGHT things the current government did.

 

[Red Sea Shadow]

Stop kidding yourselves: Egypt is completely dependend on foreign money for the forseeable future. That means tourism, tourism and tourism. You simply don´t have anything to sell but sea, sand, sun and a great history. Face the facts...

You stop interfering in our lives and stop making pre-judgements. Obviously, you don't know much about economics. So give yourself (and us!) a break and watch what will happen, silently

 

[macrobubble]

You stop interfering in our lives and stop making pre-judgements. Obviously, you don't know much about economics. So give yourself (and us!) a break and watch what will happen, silently

One, I didn´t interfere, I commented (which is my right!)
Two, Obviously you don´t know much about democracy, or you wouldn´t want to stop me from expressing my thoughts
Three, I probably have forgotten more about economics than you will ever learn
Four, you didn´t adress one of my points with a solid counter-argument
Five, I could elaborate on this subject even further which would show the futility of short term solutions to long term problems - just to give you a hint on turning systems (politically and economically) around: Lookat the last two decades in the former USSR and GDR - and they had a headstart on Egypt in terms of education and infrastructure. Or think about the egyptian internal market (buying power, average household income) for manufacturing products and international competition on export. Also here, you would also fully depend on foreign markets = money
Six, I understand emotion and national pride, but they shouldn´t get in the way of logic.