In the last couple of months, a frequent subject of discussion around the beer table after work has been the potential effect of the current ongoing political transition on us, that is to say, the foreign dive staff in Sharm El Sheikh. I've spoken to people from a number of different centres, including several Egyptian staff, and each, at least privately, is worried about what the future will bring. I assume that the situation is roughly the same in other Red Sea locations - word from Dahab, at least, sounds similar, but I can only really speak for the situation here in the relatively quiet shores of Sharm El Sheikh. At this time, I would value all sensible opinions, especially the feelings of those who live outside Egypt with regards to potential holidays here.
So (be warned, long and waffly, as always!):
As we enter the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, I find myself wondering what the future will bring to those of us still hanging on in Sharm El Sheikh - indeed, if there is any future at all for the dive industry in Egypt.
Okay - for sure, it's not going to end forever, but next year the Red Sea could be a different place to go diving compared with the years prior to the January Revolution. At the moment, tourism is still so low that the reefs are a sheer delight to dive on, certainly in comparison with the last two years that I have been working here - but if tourism continues to remain low through the next few months, many of the foreign staff who are still here will be forced to leave the country - and probably for good.
My fear is that fighting will return to streets of Cairo in the weeks following Ramadan, which has traditionally represented a lull in hostilities even during more international conflicts. Of course, Egypt has many more things to worry about apart from the dive industry specifically; chief of which is who is actually going to run the country after the promised elections - when they get around to having them - but since this blog is on a dive forum I'm not going to cover every political nuance of the protests that have continued since the government was toppled earlier this year, but rather as the situation specifically affects the foreign dive staff working in the Red Sea.
In a way, we got lucky during the January revolution. The time of year in which it happened is the dead season for dive tourism. It actually gets pretty chilly here during the winter months and most people don't have a lot of spare cash after the christmas holidays, so we find ourselves with a lot of days off, compensated for by the fact that a lot of dive staff actually take long holidays at this time of year to visit friends and family back home, wherever that is, so the meagre work keeps those few of us hardier folk who stick around financially solvent enough able to cover the cost of the Sakara.
But really - the winter months cover exactly that - costs - and many dive centres rely on the high season during September and October (and the busy christmas and New Year period) to keep everything ticking over until business picks up again in the weeks leading up to Easter. There is a steady trickle of custom, and a big influx of Scandinavians in the middle of their winter, which is nice if you have a share in the Scandinavian market, but we have no way of knowing who will turn up this year. The general consensus is that we will have a quiet high season, perhaps a return to the levels Sharm saw 5 years ago, as the owner of my dive centre speculated.
The big problem is that if we see the sort of fighting in Cairo that prompted the complete termination of most European flights (save certain scheduled international flights and some charters from the UK) until March or April this year, and this time it happens during September, when the Egyptian elections were supposed to be held, and we miss out on all that business as a result, then that's it for most of us. Some long term sharm dive instructor residents have property and investments here and as a result will be able to survive a potential 6 month lack of income, but most of us can't afford to last more than a couple of months, and even if people do manage to tough it out - what then?
In recent weeks there have been violent clashes in Cairo and Alexandria, with live ammunition being fired into the air, tear gas being used to disperse crowds of angry protesters, tanks and razorwire brought in to section off certain parts of the surrounding area. Groups of people suspected of being army regulars in plain clothes appear to have been sent in amongst the protesters to deliberately start fights. Similar scenes were witnessed in Egypt earlier this year, but back then it was the People vs. Mubarak and his secret police, and the army sort of stuck in the middle and didn't really do much until it was time to take over, but this time around the protests are the People vs. The Army, and this represents a whole other kettle of fish if the fighting starts. To add fuel to the kindling, the main religious party, after remaining relatively quiet so far, has finally thrown its not inconsiderbale weight behind their own protest movement, and the demonstrations are becoming more heated.
The over-riding calls are for the prosecution of Mr. Mubarak - the former president of Egypt - and democratic elections, but people want them now, not later after special committees have been formed to oversee their planning. The prosecution of the former president, who is actually starting to look like a halfway decent guy in comparison to other regional leaders who have put down their own revolutions with extreme malice and a lot of bloodshed, is about to commence, possibly, next week, if he's well enough. The elections - well - they've been postponed. This action in itself is enough to be viewed by the people as a promise broken by the military leaders of the country, and may well spark angry protests.
I know that Ramadan should be a time of spiritual reflection and for the devout, perhaps it is, but practically speaking, what it means in Egypt is a lot of very angry people who can't eat, drink, smoke, or even get much sleep, for what this year, in the summer time, will be a lot of daylight hours in 50 degree heat. I mean no disrepect to the faithful, that's just a purely objective description of life in Sharm during Ramadan. It's... hmmm... trying. An Egyptian colleague of mine who is himself a very devout muslim, agrees. I asked him what he thought might happen and he took the view that the month itself would probably be quiet but the week after the Eid al-Fitr festival at the end of Ramadan, falling as it will just before the elections were scheduled to occur, does indeed have the potential to bring heightened passions to the demonstrations in Tahrier Square, the focal point of the Revolution.
Should this happen, and the flights don't arrive, we're screwed. Simple. Many people are treating this like a metaphorical elephant in the room, but it's an elephant that people are starting to take notice of, and wonder if it should, in fact, be in the room, and what it potentially might do to the walls if it decides it wishes to leave. A few are inclined to believe that nothing will ever happen, but some of them said that before the January protests. Probably a lot of people thought Libya would be all over in a few days and sorry, but Egypt is faced with the real possibility of civil war.
Maybe nothing will happen and we'll resume business as usual - but herein lies a secondary dilemma. Staff are leaving. Even the big centres have suffered - several have had very tough seasons so far and these are big names, not small hotel dive centres. Staff - both Egyptian and foreign - have inevitably been forced into departure through a lack of work and therefore income. I'm seeing a few of the old-timers packing up because it's just not the same here any more... and no new staff are arriving. New work permits are not being issued; you can't get a job without a work permit and you can't get a work permit without a job, and nobody knows if there even will be any more jobs in a few month's time. The dilemma therefore is that if work does indeed pick up in September, there won't be enough staff to cover the workload - and that would be regardless of nationality.
I am in the process of moving apartments because I can no longer afford to keep this place and nobody to fill the empty room, and my new estate agent has offered me a three month contract at a very significant discount on the normal rent. She did offer me six months at a slightly different rate, but I said that just three would be fine for now; some of us may not be so worried about the whole thing as others, but for sure nobody is making any long-term commitments to staying here.
Thanks for listening,
C.
So (be warned, long and waffly, as always!):
As we enter the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, I find myself wondering what the future will bring to those of us still hanging on in Sharm El Sheikh - indeed, if there is any future at all for the dive industry in Egypt.
Okay - for sure, it's not going to end forever, but next year the Red Sea could be a different place to go diving compared with the years prior to the January Revolution. At the moment, tourism is still so low that the reefs are a sheer delight to dive on, certainly in comparison with the last two years that I have been working here - but if tourism continues to remain low through the next few months, many of the foreign staff who are still here will be forced to leave the country - and probably for good.
My fear is that fighting will return to streets of Cairo in the weeks following Ramadan, which has traditionally represented a lull in hostilities even during more international conflicts. Of course, Egypt has many more things to worry about apart from the dive industry specifically; chief of which is who is actually going to run the country after the promised elections - when they get around to having them - but since this blog is on a dive forum I'm not going to cover every political nuance of the protests that have continued since the government was toppled earlier this year, but rather as the situation specifically affects the foreign dive staff working in the Red Sea.
In a way, we got lucky during the January revolution. The time of year in which it happened is the dead season for dive tourism. It actually gets pretty chilly here during the winter months and most people don't have a lot of spare cash after the christmas holidays, so we find ourselves with a lot of days off, compensated for by the fact that a lot of dive staff actually take long holidays at this time of year to visit friends and family back home, wherever that is, so the meagre work keeps those few of us hardier folk who stick around financially solvent enough able to cover the cost of the Sakara.
But really - the winter months cover exactly that - costs - and many dive centres rely on the high season during September and October (and the busy christmas and New Year period) to keep everything ticking over until business picks up again in the weeks leading up to Easter. There is a steady trickle of custom, and a big influx of Scandinavians in the middle of their winter, which is nice if you have a share in the Scandinavian market, but we have no way of knowing who will turn up this year. The general consensus is that we will have a quiet high season, perhaps a return to the levels Sharm saw 5 years ago, as the owner of my dive centre speculated.
The big problem is that if we see the sort of fighting in Cairo that prompted the complete termination of most European flights (save certain scheduled international flights and some charters from the UK) until March or April this year, and this time it happens during September, when the Egyptian elections were supposed to be held, and we miss out on all that business as a result, then that's it for most of us. Some long term sharm dive instructor residents have property and investments here and as a result will be able to survive a potential 6 month lack of income, but most of us can't afford to last more than a couple of months, and even if people do manage to tough it out - what then?
In recent weeks there have been violent clashes in Cairo and Alexandria, with live ammunition being fired into the air, tear gas being used to disperse crowds of angry protesters, tanks and razorwire brought in to section off certain parts of the surrounding area. Groups of people suspected of being army regulars in plain clothes appear to have been sent in amongst the protesters to deliberately start fights. Similar scenes were witnessed in Egypt earlier this year, but back then it was the People vs. Mubarak and his secret police, and the army sort of stuck in the middle and didn't really do much until it was time to take over, but this time around the protests are the People vs. The Army, and this represents a whole other kettle of fish if the fighting starts. To add fuel to the kindling, the main religious party, after remaining relatively quiet so far, has finally thrown its not inconsiderbale weight behind their own protest movement, and the demonstrations are becoming more heated.
The over-riding calls are for the prosecution of Mr. Mubarak - the former president of Egypt - and democratic elections, but people want them now, not later after special committees have been formed to oversee their planning. The prosecution of the former president, who is actually starting to look like a halfway decent guy in comparison to other regional leaders who have put down their own revolutions with extreme malice and a lot of bloodshed, is about to commence, possibly, next week, if he's well enough. The elections - well - they've been postponed. This action in itself is enough to be viewed by the people as a promise broken by the military leaders of the country, and may well spark angry protests.
I know that Ramadan should be a time of spiritual reflection and for the devout, perhaps it is, but practically speaking, what it means in Egypt is a lot of very angry people who can't eat, drink, smoke, or even get much sleep, for what this year, in the summer time, will be a lot of daylight hours in 50 degree heat. I mean no disrepect to the faithful, that's just a purely objective description of life in Sharm during Ramadan. It's... hmmm... trying. An Egyptian colleague of mine who is himself a very devout muslim, agrees. I asked him what he thought might happen and he took the view that the month itself would probably be quiet but the week after the Eid al-Fitr festival at the end of Ramadan, falling as it will just before the elections were scheduled to occur, does indeed have the potential to bring heightened passions to the demonstrations in Tahrier Square, the focal point of the Revolution.
Should this happen, and the flights don't arrive, we're screwed. Simple. Many people are treating this like a metaphorical elephant in the room, but it's an elephant that people are starting to take notice of, and wonder if it should, in fact, be in the room, and what it potentially might do to the walls if it decides it wishes to leave. A few are inclined to believe that nothing will ever happen, but some of them said that before the January protests. Probably a lot of people thought Libya would be all over in a few days and sorry, but Egypt is faced with the real possibility of civil war.
Maybe nothing will happen and we'll resume business as usual - but herein lies a secondary dilemma. Staff are leaving. Even the big centres have suffered - several have had very tough seasons so far and these are big names, not small hotel dive centres. Staff - both Egyptian and foreign - have inevitably been forced into departure through a lack of work and therefore income. I'm seeing a few of the old-timers packing up because it's just not the same here any more... and no new staff are arriving. New work permits are not being issued; you can't get a job without a work permit and you can't get a work permit without a job, and nobody knows if there even will be any more jobs in a few month's time. The dilemma therefore is that if work does indeed pick up in September, there won't be enough staff to cover the workload - and that would be regardless of nationality.
I am in the process of moving apartments because I can no longer afford to keep this place and nobody to fill the empty room, and my new estate agent has offered me a three month contract at a very significant discount on the normal rent. She did offer me six months at a slightly different rate, but I said that just three would be fine for now; some of us may not be so worried about the whole thing as others, but for sure nobody is making any long-term commitments to staying here.
Thanks for listening,
C.
