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Thoughts on the future of Sharm
- Thread starter Crowley
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Hey Asser - was wondering where you'd disappeared to, old bean... I have changed my SB status in your honour! 
Several points - firstly, I am very pleased to see the elections going ahead with what appears to be a minimum of fuss (well, for Egypt, at least!!) I was worried that the renewed clashes in Cairo would, as many media pundits predicted, turn into a second revolution, with the possibility that it could get far more bloody than the first. Field Marshall Hussein Tantawi's first address to the nation when the recent fighting started was possibly one of the most limp-wristed attempts to blame everybody else but the SCAF (Supreme Council of the Armed Forces) for the nation's problems, but he did kind of have a point, in a way. Further reassurances from SCAF and then the commencement of elections seems to have reduced some of the heat in Cairo - at least for the moment.
Since I have a deeply-rooted cynicism towards ALL politics, regardless nation, I am very pleased to see a hiatus in the violence but I'm not going to believe anything that Tantawi or other members of SCAF say until I see a non-military, non-Mubarak leader sitting in charge of the country.
The next problem is - as has been pointed out - that the Islamic parties are way out in front of any other possible contenders for the head office. I think this is a product of the fact that there were about 7 million candidates on the ballot sheets (perhaps a slight exaggeration there!) and for the most part, with the exception of a few clued-up analysts, nobody had any idea who they were or what they stood for. I suspect many Egyptians - as in those who are not so well-off and not so well educated - plumped for the few candidates with which they are most familiar and with whom they can most readily identify. The Muslim Brotherhood (or FJP - Freedom and Justice Party, their political wing) is a well-establish organisation with a lot of support, even when they were sidelined and outlawed by the Mubarak regime - but they already have one very important thing in common with 90-ish percent of the population. That reduced the number of boxes to tick to only three or four depending on which particular branch of Islam the voter followed.
At first glance, it would appear that by the end of the elections, assuming SCAF do, indeed relinquish power, and the elections are as free and fair as possible in this beleaguered nation, we will indeed have an Islamic political party with a firm majority in the Egyptian goverment.
What happens next is anybody's guess. There are factions within factions - some of whom recognise that tourism as it stands generates a huge amount of employment and income for the nation, and would preserve the status quo. There are others that would like to see a ban on alcohol similar to Saudi Arabia (ie only in selected hotels) and that all women, regardless of nationality, should cover themselves with hijab/niqab/burka/other oppressive/repressive form of attire which will, quite simply, destroy resort-based tourism completely, at least for the non-muslim contingent. One cleric - Salafist I believe, can't remember his name - said that he would close resorts such as Sharm-El-Sheikh because "foreigners only go there to drink and fornicate". He also promised to replace the money lost through tourism by farming the desert... riiiight.
These are the people to watch out for, even more so than the FJP/MB, because Salafism, although divided within itself, is a much more puritanical / hardline version of Sunni Islam than the "tolerant" version which is practiced by the majority of Egyptians. If the preliminary results posted by Shadow become representative of the next government, and if the Salafists gain any sort of power within that government, I think we're screwed. A Salafist 20% of a 70% overall Muslim majority does not bode well for the future.
Opinions around the staff beer tables lean towards a sentiment that should an Islamic party come to power, regardless of the party's pollicy towards tourism, it's time to pack up and leave. A few remain totally unconcerned but these are the same people who said the January 25th revolution would come to nothing, and therefore I file their opinions in the same flush-able disposal unit I visit every morning.
Five more of my friends/colleagues left this month, and more will be leaving come the new year. It's almost impossible to recruit new staff unless they are already in the country, and to make a point that has done the rounds a hundred times before, there are not enough qualified and competent Egyptian dive professionals speaking enough languages to fill their shoes. If nobody visits Sharm next year, this will of course not be a problem, but if tourism is not restricted and remains at the level we saw this year, I expect that the dive industry will be severely hit.
At the moment, nobody is paying us a huge amount of attention because we're not exactly a high-profile issue, but unless sensible policies are put forward regarding tourist access and work permits, the only foreign staff left in Sharm will be those who are married to Egyptian nationals.
Yes, that's a lot of speculation, of course, and everybody's greatest wish is stability, peace and progress for the nation of Egypt - but our livelihoods are at stake as well. Me personally - I have some very good reasons to want to stay here and continue to develop certain aspects of my career that sort of require me to stay here for the moment. Having said that, I am becoming increasingly frustrated with living here. There has been a shift in attitude towards foreign residents, we live with permanent uncertainty about the future and really, it's just not worth fighting it any more. We are - all of us - exhausted after this season, and as we approach the dead season of January/February where there's not a lot of work even under normal circumstances, we're all wondering if it's worth waiting to see what happens, or getting out with the money we've made during high season.
Watch this space!
Cheers,
C.
Several points - firstly, I am very pleased to see the elections going ahead with what appears to be a minimum of fuss (well, for Egypt, at least!!) I was worried that the renewed clashes in Cairo would, as many media pundits predicted, turn into a second revolution, with the possibility that it could get far more bloody than the first. Field Marshall Hussein Tantawi's first address to the nation when the recent fighting started was possibly one of the most limp-wristed attempts to blame everybody else but the SCAF (Supreme Council of the Armed Forces) for the nation's problems, but he did kind of have a point, in a way. Further reassurances from SCAF and then the commencement of elections seems to have reduced some of the heat in Cairo - at least for the moment.
Since I have a deeply-rooted cynicism towards ALL politics, regardless nation, I am very pleased to see a hiatus in the violence but I'm not going to believe anything that Tantawi or other members of SCAF say until I see a non-military, non-Mubarak leader sitting in charge of the country.
The next problem is - as has been pointed out - that the Islamic parties are way out in front of any other possible contenders for the head office. I think this is a product of the fact that there were about 7 million candidates on the ballot sheets (perhaps a slight exaggeration there!) and for the most part, with the exception of a few clued-up analysts, nobody had any idea who they were or what they stood for. I suspect many Egyptians - as in those who are not so well-off and not so well educated - plumped for the few candidates with which they are most familiar and with whom they can most readily identify. The Muslim Brotherhood (or FJP - Freedom and Justice Party, their political wing) is a well-establish organisation with a lot of support, even when they were sidelined and outlawed by the Mubarak regime - but they already have one very important thing in common with 90-ish percent of the population. That reduced the number of boxes to tick to only three or four depending on which particular branch of Islam the voter followed.
At first glance, it would appear that by the end of the elections, assuming SCAF do, indeed relinquish power, and the elections are as free and fair as possible in this beleaguered nation, we will indeed have an Islamic political party with a firm majority in the Egyptian goverment.
What happens next is anybody's guess. There are factions within factions - some of whom recognise that tourism as it stands generates a huge amount of employment and income for the nation, and would preserve the status quo. There are others that would like to see a ban on alcohol similar to Saudi Arabia (ie only in selected hotels) and that all women, regardless of nationality, should cover themselves with hijab/niqab/burka/other oppressive/repressive form of attire which will, quite simply, destroy resort-based tourism completely, at least for the non-muslim contingent. One cleric - Salafist I believe, can't remember his name - said that he would close resorts such as Sharm-El-Sheikh because "foreigners only go there to drink and fornicate". He also promised to replace the money lost through tourism by farming the desert... riiiight.
These are the people to watch out for, even more so than the FJP/MB, because Salafism, although divided within itself, is a much more puritanical / hardline version of Sunni Islam than the "tolerant" version which is practiced by the majority of Egyptians. If the preliminary results posted by Shadow become representative of the next government, and if the Salafists gain any sort of power within that government, I think we're screwed. A Salafist 20% of a 70% overall Muslim majority does not bode well for the future.
Opinions around the staff beer tables lean towards a sentiment that should an Islamic party come to power, regardless of the party's pollicy towards tourism, it's time to pack up and leave. A few remain totally unconcerned but these are the same people who said the January 25th revolution would come to nothing, and therefore I file their opinions in the same flush-able disposal unit I visit every morning.
Five more of my friends/colleagues left this month, and more will be leaving come the new year. It's almost impossible to recruit new staff unless they are already in the country, and to make a point that has done the rounds a hundred times before, there are not enough qualified and competent Egyptian dive professionals speaking enough languages to fill their shoes. If nobody visits Sharm next year, this will of course not be a problem, but if tourism is not restricted and remains at the level we saw this year, I expect that the dive industry will be severely hit.
At the moment, nobody is paying us a huge amount of attention because we're not exactly a high-profile issue, but unless sensible policies are put forward regarding tourist access and work permits, the only foreign staff left in Sharm will be those who are married to Egyptian nationals.
Yes, that's a lot of speculation, of course, and everybody's greatest wish is stability, peace and progress for the nation of Egypt - but our livelihoods are at stake as well. Me personally - I have some very good reasons to want to stay here and continue to develop certain aspects of my career that sort of require me to stay here for the moment. Having said that, I am becoming increasingly frustrated with living here. There has been a shift in attitude towards foreign residents, we live with permanent uncertainty about the future and really, it's just not worth fighting it any more. We are - all of us - exhausted after this season, and as we approach the dead season of January/February where there's not a lot of work even under normal circumstances, we're all wondering if it's worth waiting to see what happens, or getting out with the money we've made during high season.
Watch this space!
Cheers,
C.
Last edited:
Hillmorton Scubie
Contributor
Thank you Crowley for your eloquent analysis and educated perspective of the current political situation. Although of no consolation for yourself, we know people who have purchased an appartment in the area (one remortgaged their UK property) and are now highly concerned.
Tigerman
Contributor
What concern me isnt the fact that there might be a muslim leadership, what worries me is that many of said muslim candidates is extremely conservative and have an outspoken goal of using sharia laws and deny both women and copts any say in the politics. That much for having a problem with opression. Guess it only applies when themselves are the opressed..
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None of the Muslim parties (neither the Sharia) said women or non Muslims' political says are to be denied. BTW, the first woman to enter the parliament this year was through the Muslim Brotherhood's party (FJP). Also, although some will not believe, the first Christian (Coptic) to enter the parliament this year was through FJP!
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Tigerman
Contributor
"The Brotherhood's English language website describes the "principles of the Muslim Brotherhood" as including firstly the introduction of the Islamic Shari`ah as "the basis controlling the affairs of state and society;" and secondly work to unify "Islamic countries and states, mainly among the Arab states, and liberating them from foreign imperialism""
"Following the 2011 Egyptian revolution and fall of Hosni Mubarak, the group was legalized.[44] The Brotherhood supported the constitutional referendum in March which was also supported by the Egyptian army and opposed by Egyptian liberals.[45] In 30 April 2011 it launched a new party called the Freedom and Justice Party, which reportedly plans to "contest up to half the seats" in the Egyptian parliamentary election scheduled for September 2011.[46] The party "rejects the candidacy of women or Copts for Egypt's presidency", but not for cabinet positions.[47] Some splinter groups have appeared in the wake of the revolution.[48]"
Yeah, its copied from wikipedia, but its referenced...
Youre kinda right, they dont intend to ignore the women and copts - or atleast they intend to pretend they ALMOST recognize them..
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