The Swine Flu thing...

[lamont]

Of course they shouldn't. It does seem that Mexico has been able to keep this outbreak from reaching Coz tho, and it does seem inaccurate to paint the entire nation with a broad, red brush.

It isn't the CDCs job, though, to man a situation room with up-to-date status and recommendations down to the level of individual zipcodes for every country in the world. And perfect accuracy is not even remotely possible. Of course they're going to use a broad brush.

At this point you could argue that they shouldn't be offering any travel advice about Mexico at all, but trying to get them to distinguish between Mexico and Cozumel is kind of pointless and guaranteed not to get anywhere with them.

 

[cdivernet]

What's sad is this hit all this media took on the tourism industry in Mexico. I have friends who literally lost jobs as a result of all the canceled trips to Mexico and now it turns out this wasn't that big of a deal at all. Sucks.

 

[Christi]

What's sad is this hit all this media took on the tourism industry in Mexico. I have friends who literally lost jobs as a result of all the canceled trips to Mexico and now it turns out this wasn't that big of a deal at all. Sucks.

If your friends lost jobs as a result, then they should go to the labor board. It was specifically mandated that businesses could not FIRE anyone during this crisis. They can give them vacation time, unpaid leave, reduced hours, but they CANNOT LOSE their jobs...this came down from the FEDERAL level!

 

[DandyDon]

What's sad is this hit all this media took on the tourism industry in Mexico. I have friends who literally lost jobs as a result of all the canceled trips to Mexico and now it turns out this wasn't that big of a deal at all. Sucks.

Hi DC, welcome to SB...

Don't think it was a big deal? I suppose feelings on that would vary with how many people one knew personally who died. Some families may disagree with you depending on the funerals.

It's easy to say the media is again making much ado about nothing, but then it could be the media that got the country to our south to stop ignoring this boiling pot of infection and finally take decisive actions. Pneumonia cases were up alarmingly for months prior and the virus has seemingly being simmering there since the fall, but Mexico did not take decisive actions until April and May.

So do we want a poll on how many think it's over? It might be interesting to see the results even as biased as they would be on this forum, but all the Cozumel fans in the world can't make it over by saying it is. Mexico finally did not take decisive actions that controlled it much better, and sad that so many were hurt financially, but epidemics happen - and the tourism losses could have been much worse otherwise. Q.Roo is still admitting very few cases, but look at how many US cases came from there. Who is familiar with the smoking gun idea...?

I'm still wondering why the Flu Tracker Map show none on the Yuc-Pen? I suspect a technical error in reflecting true numbers reported as they are certainly been a few admitted. From Pan American Health Org...
>> Quintana Roo: 11
>> Yucatan state: 17
>> Campeche state: 1 died

From Warm weather may not halt swine flu, May 16...

New data from Mexico and case numbers so far suggest that if the spread of H1N1 "swine flu" continues elsewhere as it has in the Americas, the virus could infect more than a billion people by July.

The data also suggests that the virus may not be slowed by summer temperatures in temperate countries. However, it spreads slowly enough to respond to the "social distancing" measures used in Mexico.

2009 H1N1 has been circulating, geneticists estimate, since last autumn, but it was first recognised in Mexico in April. New data released by the Mexican health ministry (pdf) reveals disturbing similarities with the last H1N1 pandemic, in 1918.

I had wondered by there were no cases reported along the Rio Grande (Rio Bravo del Norte) other than in the lower Rio Grand Valley and from El Paso north but not in between. It seems to the two Mexican states between haven't reported any?

​

 

[Christi]

Hi DC, welcome to SB...

Don't think it was a big deal? I suppose feelings on that would vary with how many people one knew personally who died. Some families may disagree with you depending on the funerals.

It's easy to say the media is again making much ado about nothing, but then it could be the media that got the country to our south to stop ignoring this boiling pot of infection and finally take decisive actions. Pneumonia cases were up alarmingly for months prior and the virus has seemingly being simmering there since the fall, but Mexico did not take decisive actions until April and May.

So do we want a poll on how many think it's over? It might be interesting to see the results even as biased as they would be on this forum, but all the Cozumel fans in the world can't make it over by saying it is. Mexico finally did not take decisive actions that controlled it much better, and sad that so many were hurt financially, but epidemics happen - and the tourism losses could have been much worse otherwise. Q.Roo is still admitting very few cases, but look at how many US cases came from there. Who is familiar with the smoking gun idea...?

I'm still wondering why the Flu Tracker Map show none on the Yuc-Pen? I suspect a technical error in reflecting true numbers reported as they are certainly been a few admitted. From Pan American Health Org...
>> Quintana Roo: 11
>> Yucatan state: 17
>> Campeche state: 1 died

From Warm weather may not halt swine flu, May 16...


I had wondered by there were no cases reported along the Rio Grande (Rio Bravo del Norte) other than in the lower Rio Grand Valley and from El Paso north but not in between. It seems to the two Mexican states between haven't reported any?

​

Don! Please make up your mind! You're talking out of both sides of your mouth again.

YES, there was a Swine Flu outbreak in Mexico - MEXICO CITY!

YES, there are confirmed cases in Q. ROO, but still NONE in Cozumel - call it a conspiracy if you think you need to....but this is a SMALL community and if we had a confirmed case, you can bet your butt that it would be all over the radio and in the papers here - we'd ALL know about it. I'll add that our local govt. took drastic measure to ensue that if there WAS a case here, it wasn't spread.

Even so, the risk of coming to Cozumel IS AND NEVER WAS ANY GREATER THAN TRAVEL TO ANYWHERE ELSE regardless of how strong or mild it turned out to be.

This flu virus HAS NO BOUNDARIES and broke through the borders 2 weeks ago that we know of. This is NO LONGER A MEXICO THING - it's a WORLD thing!!!!!!

So, with the above arguments - there should be no travel advisories singling out Mexico!

 

[DandyDon]

Don! Please make up your mind! You're talking out of both sides of your mouth again.

Is that what you call discussing new information? Okay, fine - I'm still keeping an open mind to new info, nonetheless.

YES, there was a Swine Flu outbreak in Mexico - MEXICO CITY!

I know where highest severity was. It wasn't just Mexico City (see map), but I more was addressing the national problem that required a national actions.

YES, there are confirmed cases in Q. ROO, but still NONE in Cozumel - call it a conspiracy if you think you need to....but this is a SMALL community and if we had a confirmed case, you can bet your butt that it would be all over the radio and in the papers here - we'd ALL know about it. I'll add that our local govt. took drastic measure to ensue that if there WAS a case here, it wasn't spread.

Haha, I suspect that this new, novel flu will be more likely to backtrack its way if and when it arrives from a US visitor. Even so, got to wonder how eager the locals would be to publicize it?

Even so, the risk of coming to Cozumel IS AND NEVER WAS ANY GREATER THAN TRAVEL TO ANYWHERE ELSE regardless of how strong or mild it turned out to be.

I'm not saying it is. When this first hit, I questioned that. Now I don't.

This flu virus HAS NO BOUNDARIES and broke through the borders 2 weeks ago that we know of. This is NO LONGER A MEXICO THING - it's a WORLD thing!!!!!!

Yep, well aware of that.

So, with the above arguments - there should be no travel advisories singling out Mexico!

Probably shouldn't be. The WHO doesn't advise against it. I wouldn't let it stop me if my plans were this month even if I were not in the golden immune age group. But then I've never been known for taking personal safety seriously so that doesn't prove anything. I am more likely to share prudent suggestions, but still - I see no reason to support the CDC advisory. I wonder what they know that I don't...?

Did you see my post last night that what you needed mostly were more planes with $300 RT tickets? That change some with the midnight update as more cheap tickets have been offered today, but mostly you need more planes as some of them are sold out. People are trying to get there; the airlines just need to rise to the demand - easier said than done tho with all the variables and unknowns. Glad I'm not making those decisions either.

 

[Christi]

Is that what you call discussing new information? Okay, fine - I'm still keeping an open mind to new info, nonetheless. I know where highest severity was. It wasn't just Mexico City (see map), but I more was addressing the national problem that required a national actions. Haha, I suspect that this new, novel flu will be more likely to backtrack its way if and when it arrives from a US visitor. Even so, got to wonder how eager the locals would be to publicize it? I'm not saying it is. When this first hit, I questioned that. Now I don't. Yep, well aware of that.
Probably shouldn't be. The WHO doesn't advise against it. I wouldn't let it stop me if my plans were this month even if I were not in the golden immune age group. But then I've never been known for taking personal safety seriously so that doesn't prove anything. I am more likely to share prudent suggestions, but still - I see no reason to support the CDC advisory. I wonder what they know that I don't...?

Did you see my post last night that what you needed mostly were more planes with $300 RT tickets? That change some with the midnight update as more cheap tickets have been offered today, but mostly you need more planes as some of them are sold out. People are trying to get there; the airlines just need to rise to the demand - easier said than done tho with all the variables and unknowns. Glad I'm not making those decisions either.

OK...I may have misunderstood your post - sorry about that! Thanks for the clarification.

I'm actually gearing up for an incredibly busy last half of May - mostly people that were already booked and didn't cancel - but a good handful of last minute reservations due to low airfares. The last two weeks may actually make up for the horrible first half of the month.

I think that chart you posted that showed no available fares are on days that they aren't flying still - so I agree with you there - no doubt! Regardless, I've still been seeing some great fares and June/July are looking like they won't be so bad either

I've talked to several other dive operators and most are picking up significantly in the next couple of weeks - so anyone that is thinking about coming down should contact your favorite dive op - they may actually be full already!

 

[lamont]

Maybe you guys really don't want the cruise ships bringing this plague with them?

Report: suspected swine flu on Royal Caribbean cruise ship not spreading - Cruise Log - USATODAY.com

I drive by the cruise ship dock every day on my way to work, and I think we saw that ship leaving a couple of days ago (Friday?).

 

[lamont]

I think that chart you posted that showed no available fares are on days that they aren't flying still - so I agree with you there - no doubt! Regardless, I've still been seeing some great fares and June/July are looking like they won't be so bad either

My Jun 4 flight to Cancun on Continental is still booked solid.

...

Here is actually a fairly good article:

One in three 'will catch swine flu' | Metro.co.uk

The problem is that it requires more background for the context although they give some of it.

expected to infect: 30%
expected to kill: <3,000,000

seasonal flu infects: 10%
seasonal flu kills: 500,000

1918 infected: 50%
1918 would kill today: 188,000,000-376,000,000

So, it is still going to affect us, we still need a flu shot whenever they produce a vaccine for it, its still going to affect the health industry with an uptick in seriously ill patients due to the flu, but its a long way away from an impact like the 1918 influenza pandemic...

At the same time this is more serious than the SARS outbreak was, and this is *not* a complete non-event or hysteria like Ebola or whatever...

The problem is that culturally we can't deal with any form of nuance. Either its going to kill the entire planet, or we're too modern and cynical to care about it...

 

[1KWIK_69]

Maybe you guys really don't want the cruise ships bringing this plague with them?

Report: suspected swine flu on Royal Caribbean cruise ship not spreading - Cruise Log - USATODAY.com

I drive by the cruise ship dock every day on my way to work, and I think we saw that ship leaving a couple of days ago (Friday?).

Well the CDC need to quarantine and restrict all travel around Lamont! It's possible those pod people caught it from you!

You can never bee too carefull!

Sorry man, it was too easy!