The statue of Diana in Acapulco April 29, 2009.
Well in Cozumel I would clasify Dive shops, Hotels and restaurants as essential!
Restaurants may well become a focus with people gathering, eating, perhaps with food exposed to activities of others in the room. Buffets and salad/taco bars more at risk than food served at the table. Didn't I read that Mexico City restaurants were open for to-go orders only?
The 6-7% mortality rate was a misunderstanding as that would have been three times as deadly as the 1918 strain. A pandemic like in 1918 would suggest 30% infection rate, 3% hospitalization, 2% of the infected or 0.6% of population death rate is the more expected...
When the Mexican health secretary spoke this week about a 6 or 7 percent death rate, his figures were based on the number of deaths divided by the number of suspected infections. But authorities cannot be certain how many people have been infected, especially those who suffered only mild symptoms.
Mexican authorities have not tried to count mild cases, focusing instead on the severely ill and the dead. So the death rate may be much lower than 6 or 7 percent and probably is, according to some experts.
Let's see for Cozumel's population of 73,193 (as of 2005 - anyone have today's figures?), over 22,000 ill and not at work, over 2,000 needing hospitalization, over 400 dead if this blooms into full pandemic like 1918?
Jeeze, and I was chastised for being tempted to stay on island during hurricane Dean?! Well, I was already there, didn't want to leave, but leaving was deemed prudent in part so I wouldn't add to the burden during local crisis. I suppose some local operators would feel similarly today: "Come on down the water's fine" until the bloom starts to hit, then "Why the hell are you still here?" Fortunately I could find a flight out then; I showed up at Cancun airport with my reservation guaranteed and had to walk around an airport full of people who'd been there all night waiting in line. Also fortunately, the US did not have a 30% infection rate that may have grounded many of the crews that flew in for us.
American health officials have been studying the Mexican outbreak of course, learning all they can about what went bad there, ruling out wrong-headed theories - including a couple of my favs...
_ A second infection complicating the flu cases. A common danger in flu is that the patient is co-infected with pneumonia or other bacteria, which can lead to death. But lab tests of 33 Mexican patients, including seven who died, did not find that problem. (There goes your "they got antibiotics in Mexico" idea, altho that is a small study.)
_ Low-quality health care. CDC investigators have not seen any obvious problem. They have found capable doctors and well-equipped, high-quality hospitals, Dowell said. (Now I really thot that was part of it, but still - how many who needed hospitalization got it? And - what happens to ill tourists when hospitals are full of locasl?)
_ A medicine is compounding the problem. Investigators have looked into whether patients who got sick had taken some over-the-counter medicine or folk remedy that actually made things worse.
Such a problem has sometimes occurs in children recovering from flu who are given aspirin a severe illness called Reye's syndrome, which causes vomiting, lethargy and even seizures. But there's no evidence of something like that in Mexico, Dowell said.
_ Altitude or air pollution: Mexico City's altitude and its infamous air pollution have raised speculation that those factors may have made people more susceptible to the virus. But severe cases are being reported over much of Mexico, including coastal communities and places with cleaner air, making that theory unlikely. (Dang, I was counting on that one being important.)
So, they don't know why it's so much worse down there - just that it is. So much to learn, but the knowledge is being acquired quickly now.
I really hope it does not get this bad, but I can see litte reason to think it won't. I guess it'll partly/largly? depend on how many take heed to the "stay home" suggestions and how many accept "come on down the water's fine" and fly into harm's way...?
Back at home, what would a 30% infection rate, 3% hospitalization, 0.6% of population death rate do to your city?
-Ignorance is a many splendored thing-
